New perspectives on historical climatology

Historical climatology is an interdisciplinary field of research encompassing the reconstruction of past climate and weather from written sources and artifacts, as well the application of climate reconstructions to the study of human history. Historical climatology has grown in recent years, and this growth has brought both insights and challenges. Research has expanded into new regions and periods and diversified into novel sources, methods, and interdisciplinary collaborations. At the same time, the heterogeneity of evidence and approaches has complicated the integration of multiple climate and weather reconstructions. Moreover, the diversity of disciplinary perspectives, terminologies, and perspectives can create miscommunication among scholars in the field, particularly on issues of historical knowledge and causation. Innovative approaches in the field, including Bayesian methods, may help address these challenges.This article is categorized under:Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary PerspectivesClimate, History, Society, Culture > World Historical PerspectivesAssessing Impacts of Climate Change > Representing UncertaintyThe Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Knowledge and PracticePeer reviewe

A Bayesian approach to historical climatology for the Burgundian Low Countries in the 15th century

Although collaborative efforts have been made to retrieve climate data from instrumental observations and paleoclimate records, there is still a large amount of valuable information in historical archives that has not been utilized for climate reconstruction. Due to the qualitative nature of these datasets, historical texts have been compiled and studied by historians aiming to describe the climate impact in socioeconomic aspects of human societies, but the inclusion of this information in past climate reconstructions remains fairly unexplored. Within this context, we present a novel approach to assimilate climate information contained in chronicles and annals from the 15th century to generate robust temperature and precipitation reconstructions of the Burgundian Low Countries, taking into account uncertainties associated with the descriptions of narrative sources. After data assimilation, our reconstructions present a high seasonal temperature correlation of similar to 0.8 independently of the climate model employed to estimate the background state of the atmosphere. Our study aims to be a first step towards a more quantitative use of available information contained in historical texts, showing how Bayesian inference can help the climate community with this endeavor.Peer reviewe

Youth and parent perceptions on participating in specialized multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation options: A qualitative timeline effect analysis

Background: Little is known about how the specialized treatment journey is perceived by youth with pain-related disability and their parents. Aims: Describe and compare the treatment effects and outcomes as perceived by youth and their parents enrolled in intensive interdisciplinary pain treatment (IIPT) or multimodal treatment (MMT). Methods: Eleven IIPT youth and five parents and three MMT youth and five parents were recruited. All were asked to complete a treatment journey timeline, followed by separately conducted semistructured interviews. Transcribed interviews were analyzed using reflective thematic analysis. Results: The main themes spanned the treatment trajectory. All participants described similar initial struggles (Theme 1). Positive and negative treatment effects associated with acquisitions and disruptions (Theme 2), and outcomes post-discharge related to supports and realities (Theme 3) emerged. Knowledge, skills, and support acquisition during treatment and feeling empowered and confident to self-manage postdischarge were identified as IIPT benefits. However, the change effort and life disruptions required and the difficulty transitioning to real life postprogram were acknowledged as detrimental IIPT impacts. Continuing with life as usual and maintaining supports in daily contexts (e.g., school personnel, friends) were reported MMT benefits. However, the challenges of managing pain, treatment adherence within the competing demands of daily realities, and the lack of support to integrate strategies were emphasized as detrimental MMT impacts. Conclusions: Detailed impacts of two specialized multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation interventions on the lives of youth with pain-related disability and their parents are described. The treatments benefits and previously unexplored detrimental effects are unveiled

Vitamin D in the prevention of exacerbations of asthma in preschoolers (DIVA): Protocol for a multicentre randomised placebo-controlled triple-blind trial

Introduction Preschoolers have the highest rate of emergency visits and hospitalisations for asthma exacerbations of all age groups, with most triggered by upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and occurring in the fall or winter. Vitamin D insufficiency is highly prevalent in Canadian preschoolers with recurrent asthma exacerbations, particularly in winter. It is associated with more URTIs and, in patients with asthma, more oral corticosteroid (OCS) use. Although evidence suggests that vitamin D supplements significantly decrease URTIs and asthma exacerbations requiring OCS, there is insufficient data in preschoolers. This study aims to determine the impact of vitamin D 3 supplementation on exacerbations requiring OCS, in preschoolers with recurrent URTI-induced asthma exacerbations. Methods and analysis This is a phase III, randomised, triple-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group multicentre trial of vitamin D 3 supplementation in children aged 1-5 years, with asthma triggered by URTIs and a recent history of frequent URTIs and OCS use. Children (n=865) will be recruited in the fall and early winter and followed for 7 months. They will be randomised to either the (1) intervention: two oral boluses of 100 000 international unit (IU) vitamin D 3 (3.5 months apart) with 400 IU vitamin D 3 daily; or (2) control: identical placebo boluses with daily placebo. The primary outcome is the number of exacerbations requiring OCS per child, documented by medical and pharmacy records. Secondary outcomes include number of laboratory-confirmed viral URTIs, exacerbation duration and severity, parent functional status, healthcare use, treatment deintensification, cost and safety. Ethics and dissemination This study has received ethical approval from all sites. Results will be disseminated via international conferences and manuscripts targeting paediatricians and respirologists, and to families of asthmatic children via our Quebec parents-partners outreach programme. If proven effective, findings may markedly influence the management of URTI-induced asthma in high-morbidity preschoolers and could be directly implemented into practice with an update to clinical guidelines. Trial registration number NCT03365687

Climate indices in historical climate reconstructions:a global state of the art

Abstract. Narrative evidence contained within historical documents and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however, considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global Changes) CRIAS working group – a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world's oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy climate reconstructions

UNBOUND

Featured here, are the extraordinary works of our graduating Fanshawe Design class. This accomplishment is truly a celebration of the three years of passion, hard work, and dedication put forth by our students. It is our greatest hope that family, friends and the fashion industry will enjoy the creative endeavors of these emerging designers from the Fashion Design program at Fanshawe College in London, Ontario.https://first.fanshawec.ca/famd_design_fashiondesign_unbound/1001/thumbnail.jp

Geographical Distribution and Genetic Diversity of Bank Vole Hepaciviruses in Europe

The development of new diagnostic methods resulted in the discovery of novel hepaciviruses in wild populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, syn. Clethrionomys glareolus). The naturally infected voles demonstrate signs of hepatitis similar to those induced by hepatitis C virus (HCV) in humans. The aim of the present research was to investigate the geographical distribution of bank vole-associated hepaciviruses (BvHVs) and their genetic diversity in Europe. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) screening revealed BvHV RNA in 442 out of 1838 (24.0%) bank voles from nine European countries and in one of seven northern red-backed voles (Myodes rutilus, syn. Clethrionomys rutilus). BvHV RNA was not found in any other small mammal species (n = 23) tested here. Phylogenetic and isolation-by-distance analyses confirmed the occurrence of both BvHV species (Hepacivirus F and Hepacivirus J) and their sympatric occurrence at several trapping sites in two countries. The broad geographical distribution of BvHVs across Europe was associated with their presence in bank voles of different evolutionary lineages. The extensive geographical distribution and high levels of genetic diversity of BvHVs, as well as the high population fluctuations of bank voles and occasional commensalism in some parts of Europe warrant future studies on the zoonotic potential of BvHVs.Peer reviewe

Tracking smell loss to identify healthcare workers with SARS-CoV-2 infection

Introduction Healthcare workers (HCW) treating COVID-19 patients are at high risk for infection and may also spread infection through their contact with vulnerable patients. Smell loss has been associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, but it is unknown whether monitoring for smell loss can be used to identify asymptomatic infection among high risk individuals. In this study we sought to determine if tracking smell sensitivity and loss using an at-home assessment could identify SARS-CoV-2 infection in HCW. Methods and findings We performed a prospective cohort study tracking 473 HCW across three months to determine if smell loss could predict SARS-CoV-2 infection in this high-risk group. HCW subjects completed a longitudinal, behavioral at-home assessment of olfaction with household items, as well as detailed symptom surveys that included a parosmia screening questionnaire, and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction testing to identify SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our main measures were the prevalence of smell loss in SARS-CoV-2-positive HCW versus SARS-CoV- 2-negative HCW, and timing of smell loss relative to SARS-CoV-2 test positivity. SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 17 (3.6%) of 473 HCW. HCW with SARS-CoV-2 infection were more likely to report smell loss than SARS-CoV-2-negative HCW on both the at-home assessment and the screening questionnaire (9/17, 53% vs 105/456, 23%, P < .01). 6/9 (67%) of SARS-CoV-2-positive HCW reporting smell loss reported smell loss prior to having a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, and smell loss was reported a median of two days before testing positive. Neurological symptoms were reported more frequently among SARS-CoV-2-positive HCW who reported smell loss compared to those without smell loss (9/9, 100% vs 3/8, 38%, P < .01). Conclusions In this prospective study of HCW, self-reported changes in smell using two different measures were predictive of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Smell loss frequently preceded a positive test and was associated with neurological symptoms