Vessel tapering is conserved along a precipitation gradient in tropical trees of the genus Cedrela

Key message The rate of vessel tapering is highly conserved across a precipitation gradient in tropical trees, pointing to a limit on tree height determined by a maximum basal vessel diameter. Maximum tree height in the tropics decreases strongly with decreasing precipitation. The role of hydraulic architecture in controlling this variation in tree height remains unclear. The widening of conducting xylem vessels from the apex to the base of trees, also known as tapering, is important for maintaining the hydraulic conductivity along the tree stem. If in contrast vessel diameter were constant, then resistance would increase with path length constraining flow rates as tree height increases. Whilst previous research has shown that vessel diameter scales with tree height at a similar rate (similar power law exponent) across biomes and taxa, knowledge on these relationships across precipitation gradients within a single species is incomplete, especially for the tropics. Here we report how vessel density and diameter at the tree base differ for two tropical Cedrela species across four sites varying in precipitation from 1014 to 2585 mm year−1. We find that maximum tree height decreases with decreasing precipitation across sites from 42 to 13 m. Despite the strong differences between sites in maximum tree height and water availability, tapering is indeed remarkably conserved and close to published scaling with height based on multi-species analyses. Thus, for a given tree height, basal vessel diameter does not vary between sites, whilst the maximum basal vessel size is two times smaller at the drier site (with the shortest trees) compared to the wettest site (with the tallest trees). This suggests a possible limitation of tree height determined by a maximum basal vessel diameter that can be sustained, given increasing embolism risk with increasing dryness. Our results show no hydraulic adaptation across this wetness gradient and reveal a clear relationship between maximum tree height and maximum basal vessel size

A Spatial and Temporal Risk Assessment of the Impacts of El Niño on the Tropical Forest Carbon Cycle: Theoretical Framework, Scenarios, and Implications

Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

ests face increasing climate risk, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

Funding: Data collection was largely funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) project TREMOR (NE/N004655/1) to D.G., E.G. and O.P., with further funds from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES, finance code 001) to J.V.T. and a University of Leeds Climate Research Bursary Fund to J.V.T. D.G., E.G. and O.P. acknowledge further support from a NERC-funded consortium award (ARBOLES, NE/S011811/1). This paper is an outcome of J.V.T.’s doctoral thesis, which was sponsored by CAPES (GDE 99999.001293/2015-00). J.V.T. was previously supported by the NERC-funded ARBOLES project (NE/S011811/1) and is supported at present by the Swedish Research Council Vetenskapsrådet (grant no. 2019-03758 to R.M.). E.G., O.P. and D.G. acknowledge support from NERC-funded BIORED grant (NE/N012542/1). O.P. acknowledges support from an ERC Advanced Grant and a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award. R.S.O. was supported by a CNPq productivity scholarship, the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP-Microsoft 11/52072-0) and the US Department of Energy, project GoAmazon (FAPESP 2013/50531-2). M.M. acknowledges support from MINECO FUN2FUN (CGL2013-46808-R) and DRESS (CGL2017-89149-C2-1-R). C.S.-M., F.B.V. and P.R.L.B. were financed by Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior—Brasil (CAPES, finance code 001). C.S.-M. received a scholarship from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq 140353/2017-8) and CAPES (science without borders 88881.135316/2016-01). Y.M. acknowledges the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and ERC Advanced Investigator Grant (GEM-TRAITS, 321131) for supporting the Global Ecosystems Monitoring (GEM) network (gem.tropicalforests.ox.ac.uk), within which some of the field sites (KEN, TAM and ALP) are nested. The authors thank Brazil–USA Collaborative Research GoAmazon DOE-FAPESP-FAPEAM (FAPESP 2013/50533-5 to L.A.) and National Science Foundation (award DEB-1753973 to L. Alves). They thank Serrapilheira Serra-1709-18983 (to M.H.) and CNPq-PELD/POPA-441443/2016-8 (to L.G.) (P.I. Albertina Lima). They thank all the colleagues and grants mentioned elsewhere [8,36] that established, identified and measured the Amazon forest plots in the RAINFOR network analysed here. The authors particularly thank J. Lyod, S. Almeida, F. Brown, B. Vicenti, N. Silva and L. Alves. This work is an outcome approved Research Project no. 19 from ForestPlots.net, a collaborative initiative developed at the University of Leeds that unites researchers and the monitoring of their permanent plots from the world’s tropical forests [61]. The authros thank A. Levesley, K. Melgaço Ladvocat and G. Pickavance for ForestPlots.net management. They thank Y. Wang and J. Baker, respectively, for their help with the map and with the climatic data. The authors acknowledge the invaluable help of M. Brum for kindly providing the comparison of vulnerability curves based on PAD and on PLC shown in this manuscript. They thank J. Martinez-Vilalta for his comments on an early version of this manuscript. The authors also thank V. Hilares and the Asociación para la Investigación y Desarrollo Integral (AIDER, Puerto Maldonado, Peru); V. Saldaña and Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana (IIAP) for local field campaign support in Peru; E. Chavez and Noel Kempff Natural History Museum for local field campaign support in Bolivia; ICMBio, INPA/NAPPA/LBA COOMFLONA (Cooperativa mista da Flona Tapajós) and T. I. Bragança-Marituba for the research support.Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The pan-Amazonian HT dataset (Ψ 50, Ψ dry and HSM50) and branch wood density per species per site, as well as forest dynamic and climate data per plot presented in this study are available as a ForestPlots.net data package at https://forestplots.net/data-packages/Tavares-et-al-2023. Basal area weighted mean LMA is shown in Supplementary Table 2. Species stem wood density data were obtained from Global Wood Density database65,66. Species WDA data were extracted from ref. 45.Code availability: The codes to recreate the main analyses and the main figures presented in this study are available as a ForestPlots.net data package at https://forestplots.net/data-packages/Tavares-et-al-2023.Tropical forests face increasing climate risk, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, Ψ 50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters Ψ 50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both Ψ 50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink

Duration of androgen deprivation therapy with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of long-course versus short-course androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised trial

Background Previous evidence supports androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) with primary radiotherapy as initial treatment for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the use and optimal duration of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy remains uncertain. Methods RADICALS-HD was a randomised controlled trial of ADT duration within the RADICALS protocol. Here, we report on the comparison of short-course versus long-course ADT. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after previous radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to add 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT) or 24 months of ADT (long-course ADT) to radiotherapy, using subcutaneous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone analogue (monthly in the short-course ADT group and 3-monthly in the long-course ADT group), daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. The comparison had more than 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 75% to 81% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·72). Standard time-to-event analyses were used. Analyses followed intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00541047 . Findings Between Jan 30, 2008, and July 7, 2015, 1523 patients (median age 65 years, IQR 60–69) were randomly assigned to receive short-course ADT (n=761) or long-course ADT (n=762) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 138 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 8·9 years (7·0–10·0), 313 metastasis-free survival events were reported overall (174 in the short-course ADT group and 139 in the long-course ADT group; HR 0·773 [95% CI 0·612–0·975]; p=0·029). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 71·9% (95% CI 67·6–75·7) in the short-course ADT group and 78·1% (74·2–81·5) in the long-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 105 (14%) of 753 participants in the short-course ADT group and 142 (19%) of 757 participants in the long-course ADT group (p=0·025), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Compared with adding 6 months of ADT, adding 24 months of ADT improved metastasis-free survival in people receiving postoperative radiotherapy. For individuals who can accept the additional duration of adverse effects, long-course ADT should be offered with postoperative radiotherapy. Funding Cancer Research UK, UK Research and Innovation (formerly Medical Research Council), and Canadian Cancer Society

Adding 6 months of androgen deprivation therapy to postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer: a comparison of short-course versus no androgen deprivation therapy in the RADICALS-HD randomised controlled trial

Background Previous evidence indicates that adjuvant, short-course androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) improves metastasis-free survival when given with primary radiotherapy for intermediate-risk and high-risk localised prostate cancer. However, the value of ADT with postoperative radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy is unclear. Methods RADICALS-HD was an international randomised controlled trial to test the efficacy of ADT used in combination with postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Key eligibility criteria were indication for radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, prostate-specific antigen less than 5 ng/mL, absence of metastatic disease, and written consent. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to radiotherapy alone (no ADT) or radiotherapy with 6 months of ADT (short-course ADT), using monthly subcutaneous gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogue injections, daily oral bicalutamide monotherapy 150 mg, or monthly subcutaneous degarelix. Randomisation was done centrally through minimisation with a random element, stratified by Gleason score, positive margins, radiotherapy timing, planned radiotherapy schedule, and planned type of ADT, in a computerised system. The allocated treatment was not masked. The primary outcome measure was metastasis-free survival, defined as distant metastasis arising from prostate cancer or death from any cause. Standard survival analysis methods were used, accounting for randomisation stratification factors. The trial had 80% power with two-sided α of 5% to detect an absolute increase in 10-year metastasis-free survival from 80% to 86% (hazard ratio [HR] 0·67). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN40814031, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00541047. Findings Between Nov 22, 2007, and June 29, 2015, 1480 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 61–69]) were randomly assigned to receive no ADT (n=737) or short-course ADT (n=743) in addition to postoperative radiotherapy at 121 centres in Canada, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. With a median follow-up of 9·0 years (IQR 7·1–10·1), metastasis-free survival events were reported for 268 participants (142 in the no ADT group and 126 in the short-course ADT group; HR 0·886 [95% CI 0·688–1·140], p=0·35). 10-year metastasis-free survival was 79·2% (95% CI 75·4–82·5) in the no ADT group and 80·4% (76·6–83·6) in the short-course ADT group. Toxicity of grade 3 or higher was reported for 121 (17%) of 737 participants in the no ADT group and 100 (14%) of 743 in the short-course ADT group (p=0·15), with no treatment-related deaths. Interpretation Metastatic disease is uncommon following postoperative bed radiotherapy after radical prostatectomy. Adding 6 months of ADT to this radiotherapy did not improve metastasis-free survival compared with no ADT. These findings do not support the use of short-course ADT with postoperative radiotherapy in this patient population