Understanding and Modeling Risk and Resilience in Complex Coastal Systems (final workshop report)

On October 29 & 30, 2014 SURA hosted an interdisciplinary workshop on the subject, Understanding and Modeling Risk and Resilience in Complex Coastal Systems, as a prelude to a new SURA-led community science initiative integrating social and natural science. The goals were to identify the most critical issues in assessing future risks, vulnerabilities and resilience of complex coastal systems

Cable Aging Monitoring with Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) in Nuclear Power Plants

As a requirement for plant life extension for more than 40 years, additional Cable Aging Management Program (CAMP) has to be implemented in Nuclear Power Plant Krško. Samples of cables are selected based on nuclear safety and electrical equipment criticality for inspection and testing, to check functionality and prevent unexpected failure during normal operation. Different onsite testing equipment and methods are implemented to find harsh environment due to temperature, radiation, humidity and chemical effects that could affect insulation lifetime. Infrared thermography is used for determining and evaluating temperature hot spots. The article presents a development of laboratory testing of cable insulation using Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). Thirty-six samples of different nuclear qualified cables made of most frequently used materials, ethylene propylene rubber (EPR) and cross linked polyethylene (XLPE) – all with chlorosulfonated polyethylene (CSPE) jacket, were tested. Samples were 35 years old and additionally temperature aged in several steps with an intention to get acceptance criteria. Similar tests were conducted in two testing laboratories. The results showed an evident decrease in oxidation stability of the inner EPR insulation; the onset temperature of oxidation processes has been shifted from 238 °C (unaged samples) to 175 °C (most aged samples). A decrease in oxidation stability was also observed for XPLE insulation; the onset oxidation temperature decreased from 266 °C for unaged samples to 213 °C (most aged samples). For the jacket material CSPE used as the insulation protection nearly no changes were observed

The Role of Cerium Valence in the Conversion Temperature of H2_2Ti3_3O7_7 Nanoribbons to TiO2_2-B and Anatase Nanoribbons, and Further to Rutile

CeO$_2$-TiO$_2$ is an important mixed oxide due to its catalytic properties, particularly in heterogeneous photocatalysis. This study presents a straightforward method to obtain 1D TiO$_2$ nanostructures decorated with CeO$_2$ nanoparticles at the surface. As the precursor, we used H$_2$Ti$_3$O$_7$ nanoribbons prepared from sodium titanate nanoribbons by ion exchange. Two cerium sources with an oxidation state of +3 and +4 were used to obtain mixed oxides. HAADF–STEM mapping of the Ce$^{4+}$-modified nanoribbons revealed a thin continuous layer at the surface of the H$_2$Ti$_3$O$_7$ nanoribbons, while Ce$^{3+}$ cerium ions intercalated partially between the titanate layers. The phase composition and morphology changes were monitored during calcination between 620 °C and 960 °C. Thermal treatment led to the formation of CeO$_2$ nanoparticles on the surface of the TiO$_2$ nanoribbons, whose size increased with the calcination temperature. The use of Ce$^{4+}$ raised the temperature required for converting H$_2$Ti$_3$O$_7$ to TiO$_2$-B by approximately 200 °C, and the temperature for the formation of anatase. For the Ce$^{3+}$ batch, the presence of cerium inhibited the conversion to rutile. Analysis of cerium oxidation states revealed the existence of both +4 and +3 in all calcined samples, regardless of the initial cerium oxidation state

Modelling shoreline evolution in the vicinity of a groyne and a river

Analytical solutions to the equations governing shoreline evolution are well-known and have value both as pedagogical tools and for conceptual design. Nevertheless, solutions have been restricted to a fairly narrow class of conditions with limited applicability to real-life situations. We present a new analytical solution for a widely encountered situation where a groyne is constructed close to a river to control sediment movement. The solution, which employs Laplace transforms, has the advantage that a solution for time-varying conditions may be constructed from the solution for constant conditions by means of the Heaviside procedure. Solutions are presented for various combinations of wave conditions and sediment supply/removal by the river. An innovation introduced in this work is the capability to provide an analytical assessment of the accretion or erosion caused near the groyne due to its proximity to the river which may act either as a source or a sink of sediment material

Longitudinal change in cervical length following vaginal or abdominal cervical cerclage: a randomized comparison

BACKGROUND: Cervical cerclage has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent spontaneous preterm birth in a high-risk patient population; however, the mechanism is not well understood. Transabdominal cerclage is superior to low and high vaginal cerclage in reducing early spontaneous preterm birth and fetal loss in women with previous failed vaginal cerclage. Cervical length measurements are commonly used to monitor high-risk women and may explain the mechanism of success. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the rate of change in longitudinal cervical length after randomized placement of low transvaginal, high transvaginal, or transabdominal cerclage in women with a previous failed vaginal cerclage. STUDY DESIGN: This was a planned analysis of longitudinal transvaginal ultrasound cervical length measurements from patients enrolled in the Vaginal Randomised Intervention of Cerclage trial, a randomized controlled trial comparing transabdominal cerclage or high transvaginal cerclage with low transvaginal cerclage. Cervical length measurements at specific gestational ages were compared over time and between groups, using generalized estimating equations fitted using the maximum-likelihood random-effects estimator. In addition, cervical length measurements were compared in women with transabdominal cerclage placed before and during pregnancy. The diagnostic accuracy of cervical length as a predictor of spontaneous preterm birth at <32 weeks of gestation was explored. RESULTS: This study included 78 women who underwent longitudinal cervical length assessment (70% of the analyzed cohort) with a history of failed cerclage, of whom 25 (32%) were randomized to low transvaginal cerclage, 26 (33%) to high transvaginal cerclage, and 27 (35%) to transabdominal cerclage. Abdominal cerclage was superior to low (P=.008) and high (P=.001) vaginal cerclage at maintaining cervical length over the surveillance period (14 to 26 weeks of gestation) (+0.08 mm/week, 95% confidence interval, -0.40 to 0.22; P=.580). On average, the cervical length was 1.8 mm longer by the end of the 12-week surveillance period in women with transabdominal cerclage (+1.8 mm; 95% confidence interval, -7.89 to 4.30; P=.564). High vaginal cerclage was no better than low cervical cerclage in the prevention of cervical shortening; the cervix shortened by 13.2 mm over 12 weeks in those with low vaginal cerclage (95% confidence interval, -21.7 to -4.7; P=.002) and by 20 mm over 12 weeks in those with high vaginal cerclage (95% confidence interval, -33.1 to -7.4; P=.002). Preconception transabdominal cerclage resulted in a longer cervix than those performed during pregnancy; this difference was significant after 22 weeks of gestation (48.5 mm vs 39.6 mm; P=.039). Overall, cervical length was an excellent predictor of spontaneous preterm birth at <32 weeks of gestation (receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.00). CONCLUSION: In women with a previous failed cervical cerclage, in the next pregnancy, the cervical length in women treated with vaginal cerclage funneled and shortened over time, whereas there was preservation of cervical length in women who receive transabdominal cerclage. Cervical length remained longer in transabdominal procedures performed before pregnancy than in transabdominal procedures performed during pregnancy. Overall, cervical length was an excellent predictor of spontaneous preterm birth in our cohort. Our findings may explain the mechanism of benefit for transabdominal cerclage, with its high placement better maintaining the structural integrity of the cervix at the level of the internal os

Modelling public health benefits of various emission control options to reduce NO2 concentrations in Guangzhou

The local government of the megacity of Guangzhou, China, has established an annual average NO2 concentration target of 40 μg m−3 to achieve by 2020. However, the Guangzhou Ambient Air Quality Compliance Plan does not specify what constitutes compliance with this target. We investigated a range of ambition levels for emissions reductions required to meet different possible interpretations of compliance using a hybrid dispersion and land-use regression model approach. We found that to reduce average annual-mean NO2 concentration across all current monitoring sites to below 40 μg m−3 (i.e. a compliance assessment approach that does not use modelling) would require emissions reductions from all source sectors within Guangzhou of 60%, whilst to attain 40 μg m−3 everywhere in Guangzhou (based on model results) would require all-source emissions reduction of 90%. Reducing emissions only from the traffic sector would not achieve either interpretation of the target. We calculated the impacts of the emissions reductions on NO2-atttributable premature mortality to illustrate that policy assessment based only on assessment against a fixed concentration target does not account for the full public health improvements attained. Our approach and findings are relevant for NO2 air pollution control policy making in other megacities

Boulder deposition during major tsunami events

A remarkable accumulation of marine boulders located above the present spring tide level has occurred in two coastal lowlands of the Algarve (Portugal). The size-interval of the particles studied here is seldom reported in the literature in association with extreme events of coastal inundation, thus making this study of relevance to many other coasts worldwide. The spreads of boulders extend several hundred meters inland and well beyond the present landward limit of storm activity. The marine origin of the boulders is demonstrated by well-developed macro-bioerosion sculpturing and in situ skeletal remains of endolithic shallow marine bivalves. The good state preservation of the fossils within the boulders indicates that abrasion duringtransport and redeposition was not significant. We envisage boulder deposition as having taken place during the Lisbon tsunami of ad 1755 through the simultaneous landward entrainment of coarse particles from nearshore followed by rapid shoreward suspended-dominated transport and non-graded redeposition that excluded significant sorting by weight or boulder dimensions. We use numerical hydrodynamic modeling of tsunami (and storm) waves to test the observational data on boulder dimensions (density, size, distribution) on the most likely processes of sediment deposition. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of the study of boulder deposits in tsunami reconstruction. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Wolf Rock lighthouse: past developments and future survivability under wave loading

Lighthouses situated on exposed rocky outcrops warn mariners of the dangers that lurk beneath the waves. They were first constructed when approaches to wave loading and structural response were relatively unsophisticated, essentially learning from previous failures. Here, we chart the evolution of lighthouses on the Wolf Rock, situated between Land's End and the Isles of Scilly in the UK. The first empirical approaches are described, followed by design aspects of the present tower, informed by innovations developed on other rocky outcrops. We focus on a particular development associated with the automation of lighthouses: the helideck platform. The design concept is described and the structure then scrutinized for future survivability, using the latest structural modelling techniques of the entire lighthouse and helideck. Model validation data were obtained through a complex logistical field operation and experimental modal analysis. Extreme wave loading for the model required the identification of the 250-year return period wave using a Bayesian method with informative prior distributions, for two different scenarios (2017 and 2067). The structural models predict responses of the helideck to wave loading which is characterized by differential displacements of 0.093m (2017) and 0.115m (2067) with associated high tension forces and plastic strain.</p

Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment

Rapid deterministic modelling of shoreline evolution at regional and coastal-scheme scale enables Monte-Carlo simulations by which long-term shoreline statistics can be estimated. This paper describes UnaLinea, a fast, accurate finite difference solver of the one-line sediment continuity equation. The model is verified for the evolution of an initially straight shoreline of a plane beach subject to regular breaking waves at constant angle of incidence in the presence of either a groyne or a continuous single-point feed of sediment. Grid convergence and stability tests are used to obtain accurate, stable results, with satisfactory computational efficiency. Influences of wave input filtering and event-based sediment loading are considered. The rapid deterministic model is applied to Monte-Carlo simulations of the evolution of the west coast of Calabria, Italy for different scenarios including increased sediment load from a river and selected beach nourishment. The potential role of probabilistic shoreline evolution in regional coastal flood-risk assessment is explored through application to an idealised stretch of the Holderness coastline, U.K., where flood depths and expected damage are estimated for a 1000 year return period event

Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: concept, methodology and key messages

Integrated Urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental Services (IUS) is a WMO initiative to aid development of science-based integrated urban services to support safe, healthy, resilient and climate friendly cities. As part of this initiative, Guidance for Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services (Volume I) has been developed. The intent of the guidance is to provide an overview of the concept, methods and good practices for producing and providing the services cities require to respond to the hazards across arrange of time scales (weather to climate). Such services involve combing (dense) observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems, and climate services. These services should assist cities in setting and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies that will enable the management and building of resilient and sustainable cities. A multidisciplinary approach helps to meet the social-economic needs. IUS include research, evaluation and delivery with a wide agency participation from city governments, national hydrometeorological services, international organizations, research institutions and private sector stakeholders. An overview of the IUS concept with a few examples of good practices is presented. Key messages and recommendations are provided. Given research agencies globally expect research to provide “Impact” and the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals the urban climate research community will play an important role in helping to deliver IUS internationally. Between us our contributions are needed at all scales: to support local and national communities to delivery IUS and to identify critical research challenges that become apparent as IU