Effect of fertility control on a population's productivity

The effect of a sterilising agent upon the productivity of vertebrate pests, such as feral horses, feral dogs, wild rabbits or fruit-eating birds, depends upon the population's social structure and mating system. We investigated the theoretical effect on productivity of three forms of dominance, two effects of sterilisation on dominance, and four modes of transmission. Seventeen of the possible 24 combinations are feasible but lead to only four possible outcomes. Three of these result in lowered productivity. The fourth, where the breeding of a dominant female suppresses breeding in the sub-ordinate females of her group, leads to a perverse outcome. Productivity increases with sterilisation unless the proportion of females sterilised exceeds (n- 2)/(n- 1) where n (> 2) is the number of females in the group. A knowledge of social structure and mating system is therefore highly desirable before population control by suppressing female fertility is attempted or even contemplated

Using self-organizing maps to investigate environmental factors regulating colony size and breeding success of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

We studied variations in the size of breeding colonies and in breeding performance of White Storks Ciconia ciconia in 2006–2008 in north-east Algeria. Each colony site was characterized using 12 environmental variables describing the physical environment, land-cover categories, and human activities, and by three demographic parameters: the number of breeding pairs, the number of pairs with chicks, and the number of fledged chicks per pair. Generalized linear mixed models and the self-organizing map algorithm (SOM, neural network) were used to investigate effects of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors on demographic parameters and on their relationships. Numbers of breeding pairs and of pairs with chicks were affected by the same environmental factors, mainly anthropogenic, which differed from those affecting the number of fledged chicks per pair. Numbers of fledged chicks per pair was not affected by colony size or by the number of nests with chicks. The categorization of the environmental variables into natural and anthropogenic, in connection with demographic parameters, was relevant to detect factors explaining variation in colony size and breeding parameters. The SOM proved a relevant tool to help determine actual dynamics in White Stork colonies, and thus to support effective conservation decisions at a regional scale

strandCet: R package for estimating natural and non-natural mortality-at-age of cetaceans from age-structured strandings.

Mortality is one of the most important parameters for the study of population dynamics. One of the main sources of information to calculate the mortality of cetaceans arises from the observed age-structure of stranded animals. A method based on an adaptation of a Heligman-Pollard model is proposed. A freely accessible package of functions (strandCet) has been created to apply this method in the statistical software R. Total, natural, and anthropogenic mortality-at-age is estimated using only data of stranded cetaceans whose age is known. Bayesian melding estimation with Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling is used for fitting this model. This characteristic, which accounts for uncertainty, further eases the estimation of credible intervals. The package also includes functions to perform life tables, Siler mortality models to calculate total mortality-at-age and Leslie matrices to derive population projections. Estimated mortalities can be tested under different scenarios. Population parameters as population growth, net production or generation time can be derived from population projections. The strandCet R package provides a new analytical framework to assess mortality in cetacean populations and to explore the consequences of management decisions using only stranding-derived data.Versión del edito

The fitness consequences of inbreeding in natural populations and their implications for species conservation – a systematic map

Background: Threatened species often have small and isolated populations where mating among relatives can result in inbreeding depression increasing extinction risk. Effective management is hampered by a lack of syntheses summarising the magnitude of, and variation in inbreeding depression. Here we describe the nature and scope of the literature examining phenotypic/fitness consequences of inbreeding, to provide a foundation for future syntheses and management. Methods: We searched the literature for articles documenting the impact of inbreeding in natural populations. Article titles, abstracts and full-texts were assessed against a priori defined criteria, and information relating to study design, quality and other factors that may influence inbreeding responses (e.g. population size) was extracted from relevant articles. Results: The searches identified 11457 articles, of which 614 were assessed as relevant and included in the systematic map (corresponding to 703 distinct studies). Most studies (663) assessed within-population inbreeding resulting from self-fertilisation or consanguineous pairings, while 118 studies assessed among-population inbreeding due to drift load. Plants were the most studied taxon (469 studies) followed by insects (52 studies) and birds (43 studies). Most studies investigated the effects of inbreeding on components of fitness (e.g. survival or fecundity; 648 studies) but measurements were typically under laboratory/greenhouse conditions (486 studies). Observations were also often restricted to the first inbred generation (607 studies) and studies frequently lacked contextual information (e.g. population size). Conclusions: Our systematic map describes the scope and quality of the evidence describing the phenotypic consequences of inbreeding. The map reveals substantial evidence relating to inbreeding responses exists, but highlights information is still limited for some aspects, including the effects of multiple generations of inbreeding. The systematic map allowed us to define several conservation-relevant questions, where sufficient data exists to support systematic reviews, e.g. How do inbreeding responses vary with population size? However, we found that such syntheses are likely to be constrained by incomplete reporting of critical contextual information. Our systematic map employed the same rigorous literature assessment methods as systematic review, including a novel survey of study quality and thus provides a robust foundation to guide future research and syntheses seeking to inform conservation decision-making

Stable Coexistence of an Invasive Plant and Biocontrol Agent: A Parameterized Coupled Plant-Herbivore Model

1. Coupled plant-herbivore models, allowing feedback from plant to herbivore populations and vice versa, enable us to predict the impact of biocontrol agents on their target weed populations; however, they are rarely used in biocontrol studies. We describe the population biology of the invasive plant Echium plantagineum and the weevil Mogulones larvatus, a biocontrol agent, in Australia. In order to understand the dynamics of this plant-herbivore system, a series of coupled models of increasing complexity was developed. 2. A simple model was extended to include a seed bank, density-dependent plant fecundity, competition between weevil larvae and plant tolerance of herbivory, where below a threshold plants could compensate for larval feeding. Parameters and functional forms were estimated from experimental and field data. 3. The plant model, in the absence of the weevil, exhibited stable dynamics and provided a good quantitative description of field densities before the weevil was introduced. 4. In the coupled plant-herbivore model, density dependence in both plant fecundity and weevil larval competition stabilized the dynamics. Without larval competition the model was unstable, and plant tolerance of herbivory exacerbated this instability. This was a result of a time delay in plant response to herbivore densities. 5. Synthesis and applications. The coupled plant-herbivore model allowed us to predict whether stable coexistence of target plant and biocontrol agents was achievable at an acceptable level. We found this to be the case for the Echium-Mogulones system and believe that similar models would be of use when assessing new agents in this and other invasive plant biocontrol systems. Density dependence in new biocontrol agents should be assessed in order to determine whether it is likely to result in the aims of classical biocontrol: low, stable and sustainable populations of plant and herbivore. Further work should be done to characterize the strength of density dependence according to the niche occupied by the biocontrol agent, for example the strength and functional form of density dependence in stem borers may be quite different to that of defoliators

Testing the Accuracy of Aerial Surveys for Large Mammals: An Experiment with African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana)

Accurate counts of animals are critical for prioritizing conservation efforts. Past research, however, suggests that observers on aerial surveys may fail to detect all individuals of the target species present in the survey area. Such errors could bias population estimates low and confound trend estimation. We used two approaches to assess the accuracy of aerial surveys for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in northern Botswana. First, we used double-observer sampling, in which two observers make observations on the same herds, to estimate detectability of elephants and determine what variables affect it. Second, we compared total counts, a complete survey of the entire study area, against sample counts, in which only a portion of the study area is sampled. Total counts are often considered a complete census, so comparing total counts against sample counts can help to determine if sample counts are underestimating elephant numbers. We estimated that observers detected only 76% ± SE of 2% of elephant herds and 87 ± 1% of individual elephants present in survey strips. Detectability increased strongly with elephant herd size. Out of the four observers used in total, one observer had a lower detection probability than the other three, and detectability was higher in the rear row of seats than the front. The habitat immediately adjacent to animals also affected detectability, with detection more likely in more open habitats. Total counts were not statistically distinguishable from sample counts. Because, however, the double-observer samples revealed that observers missed 13% of elephants, we conclude that total counts may be undercounting elephants as well. These results suggest that elephant population estimates from both sample and total counts are biased low. Because factors such as observer and habitat affected detectability of elephants, comparisons of elephant populations across time or space may be confounded. We encourage survey teams to incorporate detectability analysis in all aerial surveys for mammals

How Immunocontraception Can Contribute to Elephant Management in Small, Enclosed Reserves: Munyawana Population as a Case Study

Immunocontraception has been widely used as a management tool to reduce population growth in captive as well as wild populations of various fauna. We model the use of an individual-based rotational immunocontraception plan on a wild elephant, Loxodonta africana, population and quantify the social and reproductive advantages of this method of implementation using adaptive management. The use of immunocontraception on an individual, rotational basis stretches the inter-calving interval for each individual female elephant to a management-determined interval, preventing exposing females to unlimited long-term immunocontraception use (which may have as yet undocumented negative effects). Such rotational immunocontraception can effectively lower population growth rates, age the population, and alter the age structure. Furthermore, such structured intervention can simulate natural process such as predation or episodic catastrophic events (e.g., drought), which regulates calf recruitment within an abnormally structured population. A rotational immunocontraception plan is a feasible and useful elephant population management tool, especially in a small, enclosed conservation area. Such approaches should be considered for other long-lived, social species in enclosed areas where the long-term consequences of consistent contraception may be unknown

The Extinction of Dengue through Natural Vulnerability of Its Vectors

Dengue transmission has not always been confined to tropical areas. In some cases, this has been due to a reduced geographic range of the mosquitoes that are able to carry dengue viruses. In Australia, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes once occurred throughout temperate, drier parts of the country but are now restricted to the wet tropics. We used a computer modelling approach to determine whether these mosquitoes could inhabit their former range. This was done by simulating dengue mosquito populations in virtual environments that experienced 10 years of actual daily weather conditions (1998–2007) obtained for 13 locations inside and outside the current tropical range. We discovered that in areas outside the Australian wet tropics, Ae. aegypti often becomes extinct, particularly when conditions are too cool for year-round egg-laying activity, and/or too dry for eggs to hatch. Thus, despite being a global pest and disease vector, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes are naturally vulnerable to extinction in certain conditions. Such vulnerability should be exploited in vector control programs