Crustal seismic velocity responds to a magmatic intrusion and seasonal loading in Iceland's Northern Volcanic Zone.

Seismic noise interferometry is an exciting technique for studying volcanoes, providing a continuous measurement of seismic velocity changes (dv/v), which are sensitive to magmatic processes that affect the surrounding crust. However, understanding the exact mechanisms causing changes in dv/v is often difficult. We present dv/v measurements over 10 years in central Iceland, measured using single-station cross-component correlation functions from 51 instruments across a range of frequency bands. We observe a linear correlation between changes in dv/v and volumetric strain at stations in regions of both compression and dilatation associated with the 2014 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dike intrusion. Furthermore, a clear seasonal cycle in dv/v is modeled as resulting from elastic and poroelastic responses to changing snow thickness, atmospheric pressure, and groundwater level. This study comprehensively explains variations in dv/v arising from diverse crustal stresses and highlights the importance of deformation modeling when interpreting dv/v, with implications for volcano and environmental monitoring worldwide

Long-period seismicity reveals magma pathways above a laterally propagating dyke during the 2014–15 Bárðarbunga rifting event, Iceland

The 2014-15 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun rifting event comprised the best-monitored dyke intrusion to date and the largest eruption in Iceland in 230 years. A huge variety of seismicity was produced, including over 30,000 volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VTs) associated with the dyke propagation at ∼ 6 km depth below sea level, and large-magnitude earthquakes accompanying the collapse of Bárðarbunga caldera. We here study the long-period seismicity associated with the rifting event. We systematically detect and locate both long-period events (LPs) and tremor during the dyke propagation phase and the first week of the eruption. We identify clusters of highly similar, repetitive LPs, which have a peak frequency of ∼ 1 Hz and clear P and S phases followed by a long-duration coda. The source mechanisms are remarkably consistent between clusters and also fundamentally different to those of the VTs. We accurately locate LP clusters near each of three ice cauldrons (depressions formed by basal melting) that were observed on the surface of Dyngjujökull glacier above the path of the dyke. Most events are in the vicinity of the northernmost cauldron, at shallower depth than the VTs associated with lateral dyke propagation. At the two northerly cauldrons, periods of shallow seismic tremor following the clusters of LPs are also observed. Given that the LPs occur at ∼ 4 km depth and in swarms during times of dyke-stalling, we infer that they result from excitation of magmatic fluid-filled cavities and indicate magma ascent. We suggest that the tremor is the climax of the vertical melt movement, arising from either rapid, repeated excitation of the same LP cavities, or sub-glacial eruption processes. This long-period seismicity therefore represents magma pathways between the depth of the dyke-VT earthquakes and the surface. Notably, we do not detect tremor associated with each cauldron, despite melt reaching the base of the overlying ice cap, a concern for hazard forecasting

Dispelling the myths of online education: learning via the information superhighway

There continues to be a perception that online education is inferior to traditional education. In the U.S. online learning is more developed than in the U.K. This paper provides insights into a U.S. provision and takes a close look at what are perceived as weaknesses of on line learning and argues that these are not necessarily inherent weaknesses of this form of educational delivery. Then, results of two major studies, undertaken in the U.S. are provided comparing the effectiveness of online education to traditional education as perceived by current MBA students and past graduates. Results of these studies suggest that students of MBA modules and MBA graduates perceive the quality and effectiveness of online education to be similar to, if not higher than, the quality and effectiveness of traditional modules and programmes

Stocking activities for the Arctic charr in Lake Geneva: Genetic effects in space and time

Artificial stocking practices are widely used by resource managers worldwide, in order to sustain fish populations exploited by both recreational and commercial activities, but their benefits are controversial. Former practices involved exotic strains, although current programs rather consider artificial breeding of local fishes (supportive breeding). Understanding the complex genetic effects of these management strategies is an importan t challenge with economic and conservation implications, especially in the context of population declines. In this study, we focus on the declining Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) population from Lake Geneva (Switzerland and France), which has initially been restocked with allochtonous fishes in the early eighties, followed by supportive breeding. In this context, we conducted a genetic survey to document the evolution of the genetic diversity and structure throughout the last 50 years, before and after the initiation of hatchery supplementation, using contemporary and historical samples. We show that the introduction of exotic fishes was associated with a genetic bottleneck in the 1980–1990s, a break of Hardy–Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE), a reduction in genetic diversity, an increase in genetic structure among spawning sites, and a change in their genetic composition. Together with better environmental conditions, three decades of subsequent supportive breeding using local fishes allowed to re-establish HWE and the initial levels of genetic variation. However, current spawning sites have not fully recovered their original genetic composition and were extensively h omogenized across the lake. Our study demonstrates the drastic genetic consequ e nces of different restocking tactics in a comprehensive spatiotemporal framewo rk and suggests that genetic alteration by nonlocal stocking may be partly reversible through supportive breeding. We recommend that conservation-based programs consider local diversity and implement adequate protocols to limit the genetic homogenization of this Arctic charr population

Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction-recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations.US Department of Homeland Security HSHQDC-12-C-00058 Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 5R24HD047879 National Institutes of Health 5T32HD007163 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation RAPIDD program of the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Healt

Relative seismic velocity variations correlate with deformation at Kīlauea volcano

Seismic noise interferometry allows the continuous and real-time measurement of relative seismic velocity through a volcanic edifice. Because seismic velocity is sensitive to the pressurization state of the system, this method is an exciting new monitoring tool at active volcanoes. Despite the potential of this tool, no studies have yet comprehensively compared velocity to other geophysical observables on a short-term time scale at a volcano over a significant length of time. We use volcanic tremor (~0.3 to 1.0 Hz) at Kīlauea as a passive source for interferometry to measure relative velocity changes with time. By cross-correlating the vertical component of day-long seismic records between ~230 station pairs, we extract coherent and temporally consistent coda wave signals with time lags of up to 120 s. Our resulting time series of relative velocity shows a remarkable correlation between relative velocity and the radial tilt record measured at Kīlauea summit, consistently correlating on a time scale of days to weeks for almost the entire study period (June 2011 to November 2015). As the summit continually deforms in deflation-inflation events, the velocity decreases and increases, respectively. Modeling of strain at Kīlauea suggests that, during inflation of the shallow magma reservoir (1 to 2 km below the surface), most of the edifice is dominated by compression—hence closing cracks and producing faster velocities—and vice versa. The excellent correlation between relative velocity and deformation in this study provides an opportunity to understand better the mechanisms causing seismic velocity changes at volcanoes, and therefore realize the potential of passive interferometry as a monitoring tool.The work was funded by graduate studentships from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L002507/1 and NE/K500884/1 for C.D. and R.G.G., respectively) and Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge (contribution number ESC3863). C.C. acknowledges a Wiener-Anspach postdoctoral fellowship and an F.R.S.-FNRS Chargé de Recherches/Université Libre de Bruxelles fellowship. The U.S. alumnae of Newnham College, Cambridge awarded a travel grant

Invertible and Non-invertible Alloy Ising Models

Physical properties of alloys are compared as computed from ``direct'' and ``inverse'' procedures. The direct procedure involves Monte Carlo simulations of a set of local density approximation (LDA)-derived pair and multibody interactions {\nu_f}, generating short-range order (SRO), ground states, order- disorder transition temperatures, and structural energy differences. The inverse procedure involves ``inverting'' the SRO generated from {\nu_f} via inverse-Monte-Carlo to obtain a set of pair only interactions {\tilde{\nu}_f}. The physical properties generated from {\tilde{\nu}_f} are then compared with those from {\nu_f}. We find that (i) inversion of the SRO is possible (even when {\nu_f} contains multibody interactions but {\tilde{\nu}_f} does not) but, (ii) the resulting interactions {\tilde{\nu}_f} agree with the input interactions {\nu_f} only when the problem is dominated by pair interactions. Otherwise, {\tilde{\nu}_f} are very different from {\nu_f}. (iii) The same SRO pattern can be produced by drastically different sets {\nu_f}. Thus, the effective interactions deduced from inverting SRO are not unique. (iv) Inverting SRO always misses configuration-independent (but composition- dependent) energies such as the volume deformation energy G(x); consequently, the ensuing {\tilde{\nu}_f} cannot be used to describe formation enthalpies or two-phase regions of the phase diagram, which depend on G(x).Comment: 4 pages, ReVTeX galley format, 1 eps figures embedded using epsf, to be published in Solid State Communication

Relative seismic velocity variations correlate with deformation at Kīlauea volcano

Seismic noise interferometry allows the continuous and real-time measurement of relative seismic velocity through a volcanic edifice. Because seismic velocity is sensitive to the pressurization state of the system, this method is an exciting new monitoring tool at active volcanoes. Despite the potential of this tool, no studies have yet comprehensively compared velocity to other geophysical observables on a short-term time scale at a volcano over a significant length of time. We use volcanic tremor (~0.3 to 1.0 Hz) at Kīlauea as a passive source for interferometry to measure relative velocity changes with time. By cross-correlating the vertical component of day-long seismic records between ~230 station pairs, we extract coherent and temporally consistent coda wave signals with time lags of up to 120 s. Our resulting time series of relative velocity shows a remarkable correlation between relative velocity and the radial tilt record measured at Kīlauea summit, consistently correlating on a time scale of days to weeks for almost the entire study period (June 2011 to November 2015). As the summit continually deforms in deflation-inflation events, the velocity decreases and increases, respectively. Modeling of strain at Kīlauea suggests that, during inflation of the shallow magma reservoir (1 to 2 km below the surface), most of the edifice is dominated by compression—hence closing cracks and producing faster velocities—and vice versa. The excellent correlation between relative velocity and deformation in this study provides an opportunity to understand better the mechanisms causing seismic velocity changes at volcanoes, and therefore realize the potential of passive interferometry as a monitoring tool.The work was funded by graduate studentships from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L002507/1 and NE/K500884/1 for C.D. and R.G.G., respectively) and Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge (contribution number ESC3863). C.C. acknowledges a Wiener-Anspach postdoctoral fellowship and an F.R.S.-FNRS Chargé de Recherches/Université Libre de Bruxelles fellowship. The U.S. alumnae of Newnham College, Cambridge awarded a travel grant

Fermi Surface as the Driving Mechanism for Helical Antiferromagnetic Ordering in Gd-Y Alloys

The first direct experimental evidence for the Fermi surface (FS) driving the helical antiferromagnetic ordering in a gadolinium-yttrium alloy is reported. The presence of a FS sheet capable of nesting is revealed, and the nesting vector associated with the sheet is found to be in excellent agreement with the periodicity of the helical ordering.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Measurement of masses in the [Formula: see text] system by kinematic endpoints in pp collisions at [Formula: see text].

A simultaneous measurement of the top-quark, W-boson, and neutrino masses is reported for [Formula: see text] events selected in the dilepton final state from a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb-1 collected by the CMS experiment in pp collisions at [Formula: see text]. The analysis is based on endpoint determinations in kinematic distributions. When the neutrino and W-boson masses are constrained to their world-average values, a top-quark mass value of [Formula: see text] is obtained. When such constraints are not used, the three particle masses are obtained in a simultaneous fit. In this unconstrained mode the study serves as a test of mass determination methods that may be used in beyond standard model physics scenarios where several masses in a decay chain may be unknown and undetected particles lead to underconstrained kinematics