Extended dividend, cash flow and residual income valuation models: Accounting for deviations from ideal conditions

Standard equity valuation approaches (i.e., DDM, RIM, and DCF model) are derived under the assumption of ideal conditions, such as infinite payoffs and clean surplus accounting. Because these conditions are hardly ever met, we extend the standard approaches, based on the fundamental principle of financial statement articulation. The extended models are then tested empirically by employing two sets of forecasts: (1) analyst forecasts provided by Value Line and (2) forecasts generated by cross-sectional regression models. The main result is that our extended models yield considerably smaller valuation errors. Moreover, by construction, identical value estimates are obtained across the extended models. By reestablishing empirical equivalence under non-ideal conditions, our approach provides a benchmark that enables us to quantify the errors resulting from individual deviations from ideal conditions, and thus, to analyze the robustness of the standard approaches. Finally, by providing a level playing field for the different valuation approaches, our findings have implications for other empirical settings, for example, estimating the implied cost of capital. --Dirty Surplus,Terminal Value,Steady-State,Valuation Error

External Validation of a Prognostic Score for Patients with Brain Metastases: Extended Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment

This is the accepted manuscript version of an article published by Karger Publishers in [Oncology Research and Treatment/2020/43/5/221–226 DOI: 10.1159/000506954 and available on https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/506954Purpose: The aim of our study was the external validation of an extended variant of the four-tiered diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment (DS-GPA) that includes more information about extracranial disease burden and blood test results, and predicts survival of patients with brain metastases. The extracranial DS-GPA (EC-GPA) includes serum albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, and number of extracranial organs involved. Originally, the score was developed in Germany. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 236 patients with brain metastases treated with primary whole-brain radiotherapy in North-Norway was performed (independent external validation cohort). Results: The fourtiered EC-GPA score showed good discrimination between all prognostic groups (log-rank test p < 0.05 for all pairwise comparisons). One-year survival was 0, 11, 30, and 100%, respectively. Median survival was 0.7 months (95% CI, 0.5–0.9) in the worst prognostic group, with a hazard ratio for death of 44.31 (95% CI, 5.78–339.50) compared to the best group. In the German database, the corresponding HR was 31.64 (median survival 0.4 months). The remaining hazard ratios in this validation study were 7.13 and 12.10, compared with 4.84 and 9.26 in the score development study. Conclusions: This study provides an independent validation of the ECGPA, which was the best prognostic model for defining patients who did not benefit from radiation therapy of brain metastases in terms of overall survival in the original German study. The proposed modification of the established DS-GPA should undergo further validation in multi-institutional databases

Super-star clusters versus OB associations

Super Star Clusters (Mecl > 10^5 Msol) are the largest stellar nurseries in our local Universe, containing hundreds of thousands to millions of young stars within a few light years. Many of these systems are found in external galaxies, especially in pairs of interacting galaxies, and in some dwarf galaxies, but relatively few in disk galaxies like our own Milky Way. We show that a possible explanation for this difference is the presence of shear in normal spiral galaxies which impedes the formation of the very large and dense super star clusters but prefers the formation of loose OB associations possibly with a less massive cluster at the center. In contrast, in interacting galaxies and in dwarf galaxies, regions can collapse without having a large-scale sense of rotation. This lack of rotational support allows the giant clouds of gas and stars to concentrate into a single, dense and gravitationally bound system.Comment: uses emulateapj-rtx4.cls, 7 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication by Ap

OSBPL2 encodes a protein of inner and outer hair cell stereocilia and is mutated in autosomal dominant hearing loss (DFNA67)

Background: Early-onset hearing loss is mostly of genetic origin. The complexity of the hearing process is reflected by its extensive genetic heterogeneity, with probably many causative genes remaining to be identified. Here, we aimed at identifying the genetic basis for autosomal dominant non-syndromic hearing loss (ADNSHL) in a large German family. Methods: A panel of 66 known deafness genes was analyzed for mutations by next-generation sequencing (NGS) in the index patient. We then conducted genome-wide linkage analysis, and whole-exome sequencing was carried out with samples of two patients. Expression of Osbpl2 in the mouse cochlea was determined by immunohistochemistry. Because Osbpl2 has been proposed as a target of miR-96, we investigated homozygous Mir96 mutant mice for its upregulation. Results: Onset of hearing loss in the investigated ADNSHL family is in childhood, initially affecting the high frequencies and progressing to profound deafness in adulthood. However, there is considerable intrafamilial variability. We mapped a novel ADNSHL locus, DFNA67, to chromosome 20q13.2-q13.33, and subsequently identified a co-segregating heterozygous frameshift mutation, c.141-142delTG (p.Arg50Alafs∗103), in OSBPL2, encoding a protein known to interact with the DFNA1 protein, DIAPH1. In mice, Osbpl2 was prominently expressed in stereocilia of cochlear outer and inner hair cells. We found no significant Osbpl2 upregulation at the mRNA level in homozygous Mir96 mutant mice. Conclusion: The function of OSBPL2 in the hearing process remains to be determined. Our study and the recent description of another frameshift mutation in a Chinese ADNSHL family identify OSBPL2 as a novel gene for progressive deafness.</p

Congenital Diarrhea and Cholestatic Liver Disease: Phenotypic Spectrum Associated with MYO5B Mutations

Myosin Vb (MYO5B) is a motor protein that facilitates protein trafficking and recycling in polarized cells by RAB11- and RAB8-dependent mechanisms. Biallelic MYO5B mutations are identified in the majority of patients with microvillus inclusion disease (MVID). MVID is an intractable diarrhea of infantile onset with characteristic histopathologic findings that requires life-long parenteral nutrition or intestinal transplantation. A large number of such patients eventually develop cholestatic liver disease. Bi-allelic MYO5B mutations are also identified in a subset of patients with predominant early-onset cholestatic liver disease. We present here the compilation of 114 patients with disease-causing MYO5B genotypes, including 44 novel patients as well as 35 novel MYO5B mutations, and an analysis of MYO5B mutations with regard to functional consequences. Our data support the concept that (1) a complete lack of MYO5B protein or early MYO5B truncation causes predominant intestinal disease (MYO5B-MVID), (2) the expression of full-length mutant MYO5B proteins with residual function causes predominant cholestatic liver disease (MYO5B-PFIC), and (3) the expression of mutant MYO5B proteins without residual function causes both intestinal and hepatic disease (MYO5B-MIXED). Genotype-phenotype data are deposited in the existing open MYO5B database in order to improve disease diagnosis, prognosis, and genetic counseling.This research was funded by Jubiläumsfonds der Österreichischen Nationalbank, grant no.16678 (to A.R.J.), grant no. 18019 (to G.-F.V.) and Tiroler Wissenschaftsfonds, grant No. 0404/2386 (toG.-F.V.).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio