Thirteen years of integrated precipitable water derived by GPS at Mario Zucchelli Station, Antarctica

Since 1998, the Italian Antarctic Programme is funding space geodetic activities based on the use of episodic and permanent GPS observations. Beside their exploitation in geodynamics, the data can be used to sense the atmosphere and retrieve the water vapour content and variation. The surface pressure and temperature at the GPS tracking sites are necessary to compute the precipitable water; at sites where no information is available, the values can be retrieved from a global grid model. We process the data series of the permanent GPS site TNB1 (Mario Zucchelli Station, Antarctica) from 1998 up to 2010 comparing the use of grid values to the implementation of real surface records. With both approaches, we estimate almost 70000 hourly values of precipitable water over 13 years and we find discrepancies varying between (1.8 ± 0.2) mm in summer and (3.3 ± 0.5) mm in winter. In addition, the discrepancies of the two solutions exhibit a clear seasonal dependency. We validate our results using radio soundings measurements. They agree better with the precipitable water values derived from real surface data. Nevertheless, these latter exhibit dry biases and detect the (77±21) % of the content of moisture measured by the radio soundings. Both GPS and radio sounding observations are processed adopting the most up-to-date strategies to reduce and dominate known systematic errors

Chemical modelling of Alkali Silica reaction: Influence of the reactive aggregate size distribution

International audienceThis article presents a new model which aims at the prediction of the expansion induced by Alkali Silica Reaction (ASR) and the description of the chemical evolution of affected concretes. It is based on the description of the transport and reaction of alkalis and calcium ions within a Relative Elementary Volume (REV). It takes into account the influence of the reactive aggregate size grading on ASR, i.e. the effect of the simultaneous presence of different sized reactive aggregates within concrete. The constitutive equations are detailed and fitted using experimental results. Results from numerical simulations are presented and compared with experiments.Cet article présente un modèle qui a pour but la prédiction du gonflement induit par la réaction alcali-silice et la description de l'évolution chimique des bétons affectés. Il est basé sur la description du transport et de la réaction des alcalins et des ions calcium dans un Volume Elémentaire Représentatif. Il permet notamment de tenir compte de l'influence de la granulométrie réactive, c'est-à-dire de l'influence de la présence simultanée de granulats réactifs de différentes tailles dans le béton. Les équations constitutives du modèle sont détaillées puis calées à partir de résultats expérimentaux. Les résultats des simulations numériques sont présentés et comparés aux valeurs expérimentales

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

Abstract. The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h −1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5–6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s −1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green–Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives

The impact of developer team sizes on the structural attributes of software

It is established that the internal quality of software is a key determinant of the total cost of ownership of that software. The objective of this research is to determine the impact that the development team’s size has on the internal structural attributes of a codebase and, in doing so, we consider the impact that the team’s size may have on the internal quality of the software that they produce. In this paper we leverage the wealth of data available in the open-source domain by mining detailed data from 1000 projects in Google Code and, coupled with one of the most established of object-oriented metric suites, we isolate and identify the effect that the development team size has on internal structural attributes of the software produced. We will find that some measures of functional decomposition are enhanced when we compare projects authored by fewer developers against those authored by a larger number of developers while measures of cohesion and complexity are degraded

Can processes make relationships work? The Triple Helix between structure and action

This contribution seeks to explore how complex adaptive theory can be applied at the conceptual level to unpack Triple Helix models. We use two cases to examine this issue – the Finnish Strategic Centres for Science, Technology & Innovation (SHOKs) and the Canadian Business-led Networks of Centres of Excellence (BL-NCE). Both types of centres are organisational structures that aspire to be business-led, with a considerable portion of their activities driven by (industrial) users’ interests and requirements. Reflecting on the centres’ activities along three dimensions – knowledge generation, consensus building and innovation – we contend that conceptualising the Triple Helix from a process perspective will improve the dialogue between stakeholders and shareholders

Self-tuning experience weighted attraction learning in games

Self-tuning experience weighted attraction (EWA) is a one-parameter theory of learning in games. It addresses a criticism that an earlier model (EWA) has too many parameters, by fixing some parameters at plausible values and replacing others with functions of experience so that they no longer need to be estimated. Consequently, it is econometrically simpler than the popular weighted fictitious play and reinforcement learning models. The functions of experience which replace free parameters “self-tune” over time, adjusting in a way that selects a sensible learning rule to capture subjects’ choice dynamics. For instance, the self-tuning EWA model can turn from a weighted fictitious play into an averaging reinforcement learning as subjects equilibrate and learn to ignore inferior foregone payoffs. The theory was tested on seven different games, and compared to the earlier parametric EWA model and a one-parameter stochastic equilibrium theory (QRE). Self-tuning EWA does as well as EWA in predicting behavior in new games, even though it has fewer parameters, and fits reliably better than the QRE equilibrium benchmark

J D Bernal: philosophy, politics and the science of science

This paper is an examination of the philosophical and political legacy of John Desmond Bernal. It addresses the evidence of an emerging consensus on Bernal based on the recent biography of Bernal by Andrew Brown and the reviews it has received. It takes issue with this view of Bernal, which tends to be admiring of his scientific contribution, bemused by his sexuality, condescending to his philosophy and hostile to his politics. This article is a critical defence of his philosophical and political position