The average cost of measles cases and adverse events following vaccination in industrialised countries.

BACKGROUND: Even though the annual incidence rate of measles has dramatically decreased in industrialised countries since the implementation of universal immunisation programmes, cases continue to occur in countries where endemic measles transmission has been interrupted and in countries where adequate levels of immunisation coverage have not been maintained. The objective of this study is to develop a model to estimate the average cost per measles case and per adverse event following measles immunisation using the Netherlands (NL), the United Kingdom (UK) and Canada as examples. METHODS: Parameter estimates were based on a review of the published literature. A decision tree was built to represent the complications associated with measles cases and adverse events following immunisation. Monte-Carlo Simulation techniques were used to account for uncertainty. RESULTS: From the perspective of society, we estimated the average cost per measles case to be US$276, US$307 and US$254 for the NL, the UK and Canada, respectively, and the average cost of adverse events following immunisation per vaccinee to be US$1.43, US$1.93 and US$1.51 for the NL, UK and Canada, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These average cost estimates could be combined with incidence estimates and costs of immunisation programmes to provide estimates of the cost of measles to industrialised countries. Such estimates could be used as a basis to estimate the potential economic gains of global measles eradication

Data from: Differences in spatial synchrony and interspecific concordance inform guild-level population trends for aerial insectivorous birds

Many animal species exhibit spatiotemporal synchrony in population fluctuations, which may provide crucial information about ecological processes driving population change. We examined spatial synchrony and concordance among population trajectories of five aerial insectivorous bird species: chimney swift Chaetura pelagica, purple martin Progne subis, barn swallow Hirundo rustica, tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor, and northern rough-winged swallow Stelgidopteryx serripennis. Aerial insectivores have undergone severe guild-wide declines that were considered more prevalent in northeastern North America. Here, we addressed four general questions including spatial synchrony within species, spatial concordance among species, frequency of declining trends among species, and geographic location of declining trends. We used dynamic factor analysis to identify large-scale common trends underlying stratum-specific annual indices for each species, representing population trajectories shared by spatially synchronous populations, from 46 yr of North American Breeding Bird Survey data. Indices were derived from Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous autoregressive spatial structures. Stratum-level spatial concordance among species was assessed using cross-correlation analysis. Probability of long-term declining trends was compared among species using Bayesian generalized linear models. Chimney swifts exhibited declining trends throughout North America, with less severe declines through the industrialized Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes regions. Northern rough-winged swallows exhibited declining trends throughout the west. Spatial concordance among species was limited, the proportion of declining trends varied among species, and contrary to previous reports, declining trends were not more prevalent in the northeast. Purple martins, barn swallows, and tree swallows exhibited synchrony across smaller spatial scales. The extensive within-species synchrony and limited concordance suggest that population trajectories of these aerial insectivores are responding to large-scale but complex and species- and region-specific environmental conditions (e.g. climate, land use). A single driver of trends for aerial insectivores as a guild appears unlikely