The default risk of high-yield bonds.

This paper investigates the default behavior of original issue rated non-convertible high-yield bonds. The hazard model simultaneously estimates the impact of bond age, firm- and issue-specific characteristics, and changing economic conditions. The specification used models the impact of the time since issuance semi-parametrically, corrects for unobserved heterogeneity and allows for the possibility that outstanding bonds may default in the future. Our findings, based on a sample of 579 individual high-yield bonds issued between 1977 and 1989, suggest that, after controlling for annual changes in economic conditions, default rates increase with age. Bond characteristics at the time of issuance also impact the default behavior. BB rated bonds tend to have significantly lower default rates compared to CCC rated bonds; bonds with higher coupon rates have significantly higher default rates. In addition, high-yield bonds issued prior to 1980 experienced significantly lowerd default rates.Default; Risk; Bonds;

The SKA and "High-Resolution" Science

"High-resolution", or "long-baseline", science with the SKA and its precursors covers a broad range of topics in astrophysics. In several research areas, the coupling between improved brightness sensitivity of the SKA and a sub-arcsecond resolution would uncover truly unique avenues and opportunities for studying extreme states of matter, vicinity of compact relativistic objects, and complex processes in astrophysical plasmas. At the same time, long baselines would secure excellent positional and astrometric measurements with the SKA and critically enhance SKA image fidelity at all scales. The latter aspect may also have a substantial impact on the survey speed of the SKA, thus affecting several key science projects of the instrument.Comment: JENAM-2010: Invited talk at JENAM session S7: The Square Kilometre Array: Paving the way for the new 21st century radio astronomy paradigm; 9 page

Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

Polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes and the risk of histologic chorioamnionitis in Caucasoid women: a case control study

BACKGROUND: Chorioamnionitis is a common underlying cause of preterm birth (PTB). It is hypothesised that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes influence the host response to infection and subsequent preterm birth. The relationship between histologic chorioamnionitis and 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 11 immunoregulatory genes was examined in a case-control study. METHODS: Placentas of 181 Caucasoid women with spontaneous PTB prior to 35 weeks were examined for histologic chorioamnionitis. Polymorphisms in genes IL1A, IL1B, IL1RN, IL1R1, tumour necrosis factor (TNF), IL4, IL6, IL10, transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGFB1), Fas (TNFRSF6), and mannose-binding lectin (MBL2) were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction and sequence specific primers. Multivariable logistic regression including demographic and genetic variables and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses of genotype frequencies and pregnancy outcome were performed. RESULTS: Sixty-nine (34%) women had histologic evidence of acute chorioamnionitis. Carriage of the IL10-1082A/-819T/592A (ATA) haplotype [Multivariable Odds ratio (MOR) 1.9, P = 0.05] and MBL2 codon 54Asp allele (MOR 2.0, P = 0.04), were positively associated with chorioamnionitis, while the TNFRSF6-1377A/-670G (AG) haplotype (MOR 0.4, P = 0.03) and homozygosity for TGFB1-800G/509T (GT) haplotype (MOR 0.2, P = 0.04) were negatively associated. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that polymorphisms in immunoregulatory genes IL10, MBL2, TNFRSF6 and TGFB1 may influence susceptibility to chorioamnionitis

Monotonicity of Fitness Landscapes and Mutation Rate Control

A common view in evolutionary biology is that mutation rates are minimised. However, studies in combinatorial optimisation and search have shown a clear advantage of using variable mutation rates as a control parameter to optimise the performance of evolutionary algorithms. Much biological theory in this area is based on Ronald Fisher's work, who used Euclidean geometry to study the relation between mutation size and expected fitness of the offspring in infinite phenotypic spaces. Here we reconsider this theory based on the alternative geometry of discrete and finite spaces of DNA sequences. First, we consider the geometric case of fitness being isomorphic to distance from an optimum, and show how problems of optimal mutation rate control can be solved exactly or approximately depending on additional constraints of the problem. Then we consider the general case of fitness communicating only partial information about the distance. We define weak monotonicity of fitness landscapes and prove that this property holds in all landscapes that are continuous and open at the optimum. This theoretical result motivates our hypothesis that optimal mutation rate functions in such landscapes will increase when fitness decreases in some neighbourhood of an optimum, resembling the control functions derived in the geometric case. We test this hypothesis experimentally by analysing approximately optimal mutation rate control functions in 115 complete landscapes of binding scores between DNA sequences and transcription factors. Our findings support the hypothesis and find that the increase of mutation rate is more rapid in landscapes that are less monotonic (more rugged). We discuss the relevance of these findings to living organisms

T-parity, its problems and their solution

We point out a basic difficulty in the construction of little-Higgs models with T-parity which is overlooked by large part of the present literature. Almost all models proposed so far fail to achieve their goal: they either suffer from sizable electroweak corrections or from a breakdown of collective breaking. We provide a model building recipe to bypass the above problem and apply it to build the simplest T-invariant extension of the Littlest Higgs. Our model predicts additional T-odd pseudo-Goldstone bosons with weak scale masses.Comment: 25 pages, 2 appendice

Pavlovian Fear Conditioning Activates a Common Pattern of Neurons in the Lateral Amygdala of Individual Brains

Understanding the physical encoding of a memory (the engram) is a fundamental question in neuroscience. Although it has been established that the lateral amygdala is a key site for encoding associative fear memory, it is currently unclear whether the spatial distribution of neurons encoding a given memory is random or stable. Here we used spatial principal components analysis to quantify the topography of activated neurons, in a select region of the lateral amygdala, from rat brains encoding a Pavlovian conditioned fear memory. Our results demonstrate a stable, spatially patterned organization of amygdala neurons are activated during the formation of a Pavlovian conditioned fear memory. We suggest that this stable neuronal assembly constitutes a spatial dimension of the engram

Multi-centre parallel arm randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group-based cognitive behavioural approach to managing fatigue in people with multiple sclerosis

Abstract (provisional) Background Fatigue is one of the most commonly reported and debilitating symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS); approximately two-thirds of people with MS consider it to be one of their three most troubling symptoms. It may limit or prevent participation in everyday activities, work, leisure, and social pursuits, reduce psychological well-being and is one of the key precipitants of early retirement. Energy effectiveness approaches have been shown to be effective in reducing MS-fatigue, increasing self-efficacy and improving quality of life. Cognitive behavioural approaches have been found to be effective for managing fatigue in other conditions, such as chronic fatigue syndrome, and more recently, in MS. The aim of this pragmatic trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a recently developed group-based fatigue management intervention (that blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches) compared with current local practice. Methods This is a multi-centre parallel arm block-randomised controlled trial (RCT) of a six session group-based fatigue management intervention, delivered by health professionals, compared with current local practice. 180 consenting adults with a confirmed diagnosis of MS and significant fatigue levels, recruited via secondary/primary care or newsletters/websites, will be randomised to receive the fatigue management intervention or current local practice. An economic evaluation will be undertaken alongside the trial. Primary outcomes are fatigue severity, self-efficacy and disease-specific quality of life. Secondary outcomes include fatigue impact, general quality of life, mood, activity patterns, and cost-effectiveness. Outcomes in those receiving the fatigue management intervention will be measured 1 week prior to, and 1, 4, and 12 months after the intervention (and at equivalent times in those receiving current local practice). A qualitative component will examine what aspects of the fatigue management intervention participants found helpful/unhelpful and barriers to change. Discussion This trial is the fourth stage of a research programme that has followed the Medical Research Council guidance for developing and evaluating complex interventions. What makes the intervention unique is that it blends cognitive behavioural and energy effectiveness approaches. A potential strength of the intervention is that it could be integrated into existing service delivery models as it has been designed to be delivered by staff already working with people with MS. Service users will be involved throughout this research. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN7651747

OSIRISv1.2: A named entity recognition system for sequence variants of genes in biomedical literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, among other type of sequence variants, constitute key elements in genetic epidemiology and pharmacogenomics. While sequence data about genetic variation is found at databases such as dbSNP, clues about the functional and phenotypic consequences of the variations are generally found in biomedical literature. The identification of the relevant documents and the extraction of the information from them are hampered by the large size of literature databases and the lack of widely accepted standard notation for biomedical entities. Thus, automatic systems for the identification of citations of allelic variants of genes in biomedical texts are required.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our group has previously reported the development of OSIRIS, a system aimed at the retrieval of literature about allelic variants of genes <url>http://ibi.imim.es/osirisform.html</url>. Here we describe the development of a new version of OSIRIS (OSIRISv1.2, <url>http://ibi.imim.es/OSIRISv1.2.html</url>) which incorporates a new entity recognition module and is built on top of a local mirror of the MEDLINE collection and HgenetInfoDB: a database that collects data on human gene sequence variations. The new entity recognition module is based on a pattern-based search algorithm for the identification of variation terms in the texts and their mapping to dbSNP identifiers. The performance of OSIRISv1.2 was evaluated on a manually annotated corpus, resulting in 99% precision, 82% recall, and an F-score of 0.89. As an example, the application of the system for collecting literature citations for the allelic variants of genes related to the diseases intracranial aneurysm and breast cancer is presented.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>OSIRISv1.2 can be used to link literature references to dbSNP database entries with high accuracy, and therefore is suitable for collecting current knowledge on gene sequence variations and supporting the functional annotation of variation databases. The application of OSIRISv1.2 in combination with controlled vocabularies like MeSH provides a way to identify associations of biomedical interest, such as those that relate SNPs with diseases.</p

Moment Closure - A Brief Review

Moment closure methods appear in myriad scientific disciplines in the modelling of complex systems. The goal is to achieve a closed form of a large, usually even infinite, set of coupled differential (or difference) equations. Each equation describes the evolution of one "moment", a suitable coarse-grained quantity computable from the full state space. If the system is too large for analytical and/or numerical methods, then one aims to reduce it by finding a moment closure relation expressing "higher-order moments" in terms of "lower-order moments". In this brief review, we focus on highlighting how moment closure methods occur in different contexts. We also conjecture via a geometric explanation why it has been difficult to rigorously justify many moment closure approximations although they work very well in practice.Comment: short survey paper (max 20 pages) for a broad audience in mathematics, physics, chemistry and quantitative biolog