Bayesian approach to probabilistic design space characterization: a nested sampling strategy

Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space characterization, which determine a feasibility probability that can be used as a measure of reliability and risk by the practitioner. An adaptation of nested sampling—a Monte Carlo technique introduced to compute Bayesian evidence—is presented. The nested sampling algorithm maintains a given set of live points through regions with increasing probability feasibility until reaching a desired reliability level. It furthermore leverages efficient strategies from Bayesian statistics for generating replacement proposals during the search. Features and advantages of this algorithm are demonstrated by means of a simple numerical example and two industrial case studies. It is shown that nested sampling can outperform conventional Monte Carlo sampling and be competitive with flexibility-based optimization techniques in low-dimensional design space problems. Practical aspects of exploiting the sampled design space to reconstruct a feasibility probability map using machine learning techniques are also discussed and illustrated. Finally, the effectiveness of nested sampling is demonstrated on a higher-dimensional problem, in the presence of a complex dynamic model and significant model uncertainty

I Going Away. I Going Home. : Austin Clarke\u27s Leaving this Island Place

Austin Clarke’s “Leaving This Island Place” is one of scores of Caribbean autobiographical works that focus on a bright, young, lower-class islander leaving his/her small island place and setting out on “Eldorado voyages.” The narrative of that journey away from home to Europe or Canada or the United States and the later efforts to return may be said to be the Caribbean story, as suggested in the subtitle of Wilfred Cartey’s study of Caribbean literature, Whispers from the Caribbean: I Going Away, I Going Home, which argues that while in Caribbean literature there is much movement away, there is also a body of literature in which “the notion of ‘away’ and images of movement out are replaced by images of return” (xvi). Traditionally, however, the first autobiographical works, such as George Lamming’s In the Castle of My Skin, V. S. Naipaul’s A House for Mr. Biswas, Merle Hodge’s Crick Crack, Monkey, Jamaica Kincaid’s Annie John, Michelle Cliff’s No Telephone to Heaven, Edwidge Danticat’s Breath, Eyes, Memory, and Elizabeth Nunez’s Beyond the Limbo Silence, have focused on the childhood in the Caribbean and the journey away—or at least the preparation for that journey. Such is the case with Clarke’s “Leaving This Island Place.

Report on the sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction methods.

The sixth blind test of organic crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods has been held, with five target systems: a small nearly rigid molecule, a polymorphic former drug candidate, a chloride salt hydrate, a co-crystal and a bulky flexible molecule. This blind test has seen substantial growth in the number of participants, with the broad range of prediction methods giving a unique insight into the state of the art in the field. Significant progress has been seen in treating flexible molecules, usage of hierarchical approaches to ranking structures, the application of density-functional approximations, and the establishment of new workflows and `best practices' for performing CSP calculations. All of the targets, apart from a single potentially disordered Z' = 2 polymorph of the drug candidate, were predicted by at least one submission. Despite many remaining challenges, it is clear that CSP methods are becoming more applicable to a wider range of real systems, including salts, hydrates and larger flexible molecules. The results also highlight the potential for CSP calculations to complement and augment experimental studies of organic solid forms

The seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction: structure generation methods

\ua9 2024 International Union of Crystallography. All rights reserved. A seventh blind test of crystal structure prediction was organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre featuring seven target systems of varying complexity: a silicon and iodine-containing molecule, a copper coordination complex, a near-rigid molecule, a cocrystal, a polymorphic small agrochemical, a highly flexible polymorphic drug candidate, and a polymorphic morpholine salt. In this first of two parts focusing on structure generation methods, many crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods performed well for the small but flexible agrochemical compound, successfully reproducing the experimentally observed crystal structures, while few groups were successful for the systems of higher complexity. A powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) assisted exercise demonstrated the use of CSP in successfully determining a crystal structure from a low-quality PXRD pattern. The use of CSP in the prediction of likely cocrystal stoichiometry was also explored, demonstrating multiple possible approaches. Crystallographic disorder emerged as an important theme throughout the test as both a challenge for analysis and a major achievement where two groups blindly predicted the existence of disorder for the first time. Additionally, large-scale comparisons of the sets of predicted crystal structures also showed that some methods yield sets that largely contain the same crystal structures

Efficient handling of molecular flexibility in ab initio generation of crystal structures

A key step in many approaches to crystal structure prediction (CSP) is the initial generation of large numbers of candidate crystal structures via the exploration of the lattice energy surface. By using a relatively simple lattice energy approximation, this global search step aims to identify, in a computationally tractable manner, a limited number of likely candidate structures for further refinement using more detailed models. This paper presents an effective and efficient approach to modeling the effects of molecular flexibility during this initial global search. Local approximate models (LAMs), constructed via quantum mechanical (QM) calculations, are used to model the conformational energy, molecular geometry, and atomic charge distributions as functions of a subset of the conformational degrees of freedom (e.g., flexible torsion angles). The effectiveness of the new algorithm is demonstrated via its application to the recently studied 5-methyl-2-[(2-nitrophenyl)amino]-3-thiophenecarbonitrile (ROY) molecule and to two molecules, β-d-glucose and 1-(4-benzoylpiperazin-1-yl)-2-(4,7-dimethoxy-1H-pyrrolo[2,3-c]pyridin-3-yl)ethane-1,2-dione, a Bristol Myers Squibb molecule referenced as BMS-488043. All three molecules present significant challenges due to their high degree of flexibility

Multi-domain modelling and simulation

One starting point for the analysis and design of a control system is the block diagram representation of a plant. Since it is nontrivial to convert a physical model of a plant into a block diagram, this can be performed manually only for small plant models. Based on research from the last 35 years, more and more mature tools are available to achieve this transformation fully automatically. As a result, multi-domain plants, for example, systems with electrical, mechanical, thermal, and fluid parts, can be modeled in a unified way and can be used directly as input–output blocks for control system design. An overview of the basic principles of this approach is given. This provides also the possibility to use nonlinear, multi-domain plant models directly in a controller. Finally, the low-level “Functional Mockup Interface” standard is sketched to exchange multi-domain models between many different modeling and simulation environments

Critical assessment of parameter estimation methods in models of biological oscillators

Many biological systems exhibit oscillations in relation to key physiological or cellular functions, such as circadian rhythms, mitosis and DNA synthesis. Mathematical modelling provides a powerful approach to analysing these biosystems. Applying parameter estimation methods to calibrate these models can prove a very challenging task in practice, due to the presence of local solutions, lack of identifiability, and risk of overfitting. This paper presents a comparison of three state-of-the-art methods: frequentist, Bayesian and set-membership estimation. We use the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model with synthetic data as a case study. The computational performance and robustness of these methods is discussed, with a particular focus on their predictive capability using cross-validation

Large-scale parameter estimation for crystal structure prediction. Part 1: dataset, methodology, and implementation

Crystal structure prediction (CSP) seeks to identify all thermodynamically accessible solid forms of a given compound and, crucially, to establish the relative thermodynamic stability between different polymorphs. The conventional hierarchical CSP workflow suggests that no single energy model can fulfill the needs of all stages in the workflow, and energy models across a spectrum of fidelities and computational costs are required. Hybrid ab initio/empirical force-field (HAIEFF) models have demonstrated a good balance of these two factors, but the force-field component presents a major bottleneck for model accuracy. Existing parameter estimation tools for fitting this empirical component are inefficient and have severe limitations on the manageable problem size. This, combined with a lack of reliable reference data for parameter fitting, has resulted in development in the force-field component of HAIEFF models having mostly stagnated. In this work, we address these barriers to progress. First, we introduce a curated database of 755 organic crystal structures, obtained using high quality, solid-state DFT-D calculations, which provide a complete set of geometry and energy data. Comparisons to various theoretical and experimental data sources indicate that this database provides suitable diversity for parameter fitting. In tandem, we also put forward a new parameter estimation algorithm implemented as the CrystalEstimator program. Our tests demonstrate that CrystalEstimator is capable of efficiently handling large-scale parameter estimation problems, simultaneously fitting as many as 62 model parameters based on data from 445 structures. This problem size far exceeds any previously reported works related to CSP force-field parametrization. These developments form a strong foundation for all future work involving parameter estimation of transferable or tailor-made force-fields for HAIEFF models. This ultimately opens the way for significant improvements in the accuracy achieved by the HAIEFF models