Geometrical aspects of isoscaling

The property of isoscaling in nuclear fragmentation is studied using a simple bond percolation model with ``isospin'' added as an extra degree of freedom. It is shown analytically, first, that isoscaling is expected to exist in such a simple model with the only assumption of fair sampling with homogeneous probabilities. Second, numerical percolations of hundreds of thousands of grids of different sizes and with different $N$ to $Z$ ratios confirm this prediction with remarkable agreement. It is thus concluded that isoscaling emerges from the simple assumption of fair sampling with homogeneous probabilities, a requirement which, if put in the nomenclature of the minimum information theory, translates simply into the existence of equiprobable configurations in maximum entropy states

A New Robust and Most Powerful Test in the Presence of Local Misspeci cation

This paper proposes a new test that is consistent, achieves correct asymptotic size and is locally most powerful under local misspecification, and when any square-root-of-n-estimator of the nuisance parameters is used. The new test can be seen as an extension of the Bera and Yoon (1993) procedure that deals with non-ML estimation, while preserving its optimality properties. Similarly, the proposed test extends Neyman's (1959) C(a) test to handle locally misspecified alternatives. A Monte Carlo study investigates the finite sample performance in terms of size, power and robustness to misspecification

Quasi-stationary regime of a branching random walk in presence of an absorbing wall

A branching random walk in presence of an absorbing wall moving at a constant velocity $v$ undergoes a phase transition as the velocity $v$ of the wall varies. Below the critical velocity $v_c$, the population has a non-zero survival probability and when the population survives its size grows exponentially. We investigate the histories of the population conditioned on having a single survivor at some final time $T$. We study the quasi-stationary regime for $v<v_c$ when $T$ is large. To do so, one can construct a modified stochastic process which is equivalent to the original process conditioned on having a single survivor at final time $T$. We then use this construction to show that the properties of the quasi-stationary regime are universal when $v\to v_c$. We also solve exactly a simple version of the problem, the exponential model, for which the study of the quasi-stationary regime can be reduced to the analysis of a single one-dimensional map.Comment: 2 figures, minor corrections, one reference adde

Ecological Invasion, Roughened Fronts, and a Competitor's Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibit universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.Comment: The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com/content/8528v8563r7u2742

Evolution of the use of corticosteroids for the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Spain between March and November 2020: SEMI-COVID national registry

Objectives: Since the results of the RECOVERY trial, WHO recommendations about the use of corticosteroids (CTs) in COVID-19 have changed. The aim of the study is to analyse the evolutive use of CTs in Spain during the pandemic to assess the potential influence of new recommendations. Material and methods: A retrospective, descriptive, and observational study was conducted on adults hospitalised due to COVID-19 in Spain who were included in the SEMI-COVID- 19 Registry from March to November 2020. Results: CTs were used in 6053 (36.21%) of the included patients. The patients were older (mean (SD)) (69.6 (14.6) vs. 66.0 (16.8) years; p < 0.001), with hypertension (57.0% vs. 47.7%; p < 0.001), obesity (26.4% vs. 19.3%; p < 0.0001), and multimorbidity prevalence (20.6% vs. 16.1%; p < 0.001). These patients had higher values (mean (95% CI)) of C-reactive protein (CRP) (86 (32.7-160) vs. 49.3 (16-109) mg/dL; p < 0.001), ferritin (791 (393-1534) vs. 470 (236- 996) µg/dL; p < 0.001), D dimer (750 (430-1400) vs. 617 (345-1180) µg/dL; p < 0.001), and lower Sp02/Fi02 (266 (91.1) vs. 301 (101); p < 0.001). Since June 2020, there was an increment in the use of CTs (March vs. September; p < 0.001). Overall, 20% did not receive steroids, and 40% received less than 200 mg accumulated prednisone equivalent dose (APED). Severe patients are treated with higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%. Conclusions: Patients with greater comorbidity, severity, and inflammatory markers were those treated with CTs. In severe patients, there is a trend towards the use of higher doses. The mortality benefit was observed in patients with oxygen saturation </=90%

Prompt K_short production in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=0.9 TeV

The production of K_short mesons in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 0.9 TeV is studied with the LHCb detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The luminosity of the analysed sample is determined using a novel technique, involving measurements of the beam currents, sizes and positions, and is found to be 6.8 +/- 1.0 microbarn^-1. The differential prompt K_short production cross-section is measured as a function of the K_short transverse momentum and rapidity in the region 0 < pT < 1.6 GeV/c and 2.5 < y < 4.0. The data are found to be in reasonable agreement with previous measurements and generator expectations.Comment: 6+18 pages, 6 figures, updated author lis

The artificial intelligence-based model ANORAK improves histopathological grading of lung adenocarcinoma

The introduction of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer grading system has furthered interest in histopathological grading for risk stratification in lung adenocarcinoma. Complex morphology and high intratumoral heterogeneity present challenges to pathologists, prompting the development of artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Here we developed ANORAK (pyrAmid pooliNg crOss stReam Attention networK), encoding multiresolution inputs with an attention mechanism, to delineate growth patterns from hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides. In 1,372 lung adenocarcinomas across four independent cohorts, AI-based grading was prognostic of disease-free survival, and further assisted pathologists by consistently improving prognostication in stage I tumors. Tumors with discrepant patterns between AI and pathologists had notably higher intratumoral heterogeneity. Furthermore, ANORAK facilitates the morphological and spatial assessment of the acinar pattern, capturing acinus variations with pattern transition. Collectively, our AI method enabled the precision quantification and morphology investigation of growth patterns, reflecting intratumoral histological transitions in lung adenocarcinoma

Evolutionary characterization of lung adenocarcinoma morphology in TRACERx

Lung adenocarcinomas (LUADs) display a broad histological spectrum from low-grade lepidic tumors through to mid-grade acinar and papillary and high-grade solid, cribriform and micropapillary tumors. How morphology reflects tumor evolution and disease progression is poorly understood. Whole-exome sequencing data generated from 805 primary tumor regions and 121 paired metastatic samples across 248 LUADs from the TRACERx 421 cohort, together with RNA-sequencing data from 463 primary tumor regions, were integrated with detailed whole-tumor and regional histopathological analysis. Tumors with predominantly high-grade patterns showed increased chromosomal complexity, with higher burden of loss of heterozygosity and subclonal somatic copy number alterations. Individual regions in predominantly high-grade pattern tumors exhibited higher proliferation and lower clonal diversity, potentially reflecting large recent subclonal expansions. Co-occurrence of truncal loss of chromosomes 3p and 3q was enriched in predominantly low-/mid-grade tumors, while purely undifferentiated solid-pattern tumors had a higher frequency of truncal arm or focal 3q gains and SMARCA4 gene alterations compared with mixed-pattern tumors with a solid component, suggesting distinct evolutionary trajectories. Clonal evolution analysis revealed that tumors tend to evolve toward higher-grade patterns. The presence of micropapillary pattern and ‘tumor spread through air spaces’ were associated with intrathoracic recurrence, in contrast to the presence of solid/cribriform patterns, necrosis and preoperative circulating tumor DNA detection, which were associated with extra-thoracic recurrence. These data provide insights into the relationship between LUAD morphology, the underlying evolutionary genomic landscape, and clinical and anatomical relapse risk

The evolution of lung cancer and impact of subclonal selection in TRACERx

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide1. Here we analysed 1,644 tumour regions sampled at surgery or during follow-up from the first 421 patients with non-small cell lung cancer prospectively enrolled into the TRACERx study. This project aims to decipher lung cancer evolution and address the primary study endpoint: determining the relationship between intratumour heterogeneity and clinical outcome. In lung adenocarcinoma, mutations in 22 out of 40 common cancer genes were under significant subclonal selection, including classical tumour initiators such as TP53 and KRAS. We defined evolutionary dependencies between drivers, mutational processes and whole genome doubling (WGD) events. Despite patients having a history of smoking, 8% of lung adenocarcinomas lacked evidence of tobacco-induced mutagenesis. These tumours also had similar detection rates for EGFR mutations and for RET, ROS1, ALK and MET oncogenic isoforms compared with tumours in never-smokers, which suggests that they have a similar aetiology and pathogenesis. Large subclonal expansions were associated with positive subclonal selection. Patients with tumours harbouring recent subclonal expansions, on the terminus of a phylogenetic branch, had significantly shorter disease-free survival. Subclonal WGD was detected in 19% of tumours, and 10% of tumours harboured multiple subclonal WGDs in parallel. Subclonal, but not truncal, WGD was associated with shorter disease-free survival. Copy number heterogeneity was associated with extrathoracic relapse within 1 year after surgery. These data demonstrate the importance of clonal expansion, WGD and copy number instability in determining the timing and patterns of relapse in non-small cell lung cancer and provide a comprehensive clinical cancer evolutionary data resource

The evolution of non-small cell lung cancer metastases in TRACERx

Metastatic disease is responsible for the majority of cancer-related deaths1. We report the longitudinal evolutionary analysis of 126 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) tumours from 421 prospectively recruited patients in TRACERx who developed metastatic disease, compared with a control cohort of 144 non-metastatic tumours. In 25% of cases, metastases diverged early, before the last clonal sweep in the primary tumour, and early divergence was enriched for patients who were smokers at the time of initial diagnosis. Simulations suggested that early metastatic divergence more frequently occurred at smaller tumour diameters (less than 8 mm). Single-region primary tumour sampling resulted in 83% of late divergence cases being misclassified as early, highlighting the importance of extensive primary tumour sampling. Polyclonal dissemination, which was associated with extrathoracic disease recurrence, was found in 32% of cases. Primary lymph node disease contributed to metastatic relapse in less than 20% of cases, representing a hallmark of metastatic potential rather than a route to subsequent recurrences/disease progression. Metastasis-seeding subclones exhibited subclonal expansions within primary tumours, probably reflecting positive selection. Our findings highlight the importance of selection in metastatic clone evolution within untreated primary tumours, the distinction between monoclonal versus polyclonal seeding in dictating site of recurrence, the limitations of current radiological screening approaches for early diverging tumours and the need to develop strategies to target metastasis-seeding subclones before relapse