The worldwide costs of marine protected areas

Declines in marine harvests, wildlife, and habitats have prompted calls at both the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development and the 2003 World Parks Congress for the establishment of a global system of marine protected areas (MPAs). MPAs that restrict fishing and other human activities conserve habitats and populations and, by exporting biomass, may sustain or increase yields of nearby fisheries. Here we provide an estimate of the costs of a global MPA network, based on a survey of the running costs of 83 MPAs worldwide. Annual running costs per unit area spanned six orders of magnitude, and were higher in MPAs that were smaller, closer to coasts, and in high-cost, developed countries. Models extrapolating these findings suggest that a global MPA network meeting the World Parks Congress target of conserving 20–30% of the world’s seas might cost between $5 billion and$19 billion annually to run and would probably create around one million jobs. Although substantial, gross network costs are less than current government expenditures on harmful subsidies to industrial fisheries. They also ignore potential private gains from improved fisheries and tourism and are dwarfed by likely social gains from increasing the sustainability of fisheries and securing vital ecosystem services

Group Assessments to Help Build Online Learning Communities in Biomedical Science Distance Learning Programmes

Introduction: Biomedical Science distance learning courses offer flexibility in study while in employment. Asynchronous and self-learning approaches are common within such courses and often student-student interaction is limited. The aims of this study were to establish learning communities, develop confidence in participating in online teamwork and foster an appreciation of transferable skills including digital capabilities through remote group activities. Materials and Methods: Two cohorts of students (n = 20/n = 21) were enrolled in a microbiology module of an IBMS accredited MSc distance learning course. Groups of 4–5 students produced a digital output relating to current global infection-related issues, namely, assignment 1, production of a slide deck, which peers could use as learning resources and assignment 2, a voiceover PowerPoint debate, and infographic, voting assessment and peer/self-marking. Students also prepared reflections using written format and a FlipGrid video-recording. A qualitative content analysis was conducted on reflections from all students. Students completed a pre- and post-assignment survey focused on the development of transferable skills for the biomedical sector. Results: Students’ skills and confidence increased following completion of the group assignment, as evident from the pre- and post-questionnaire responses, namely, possession of digital skills and digital creation abilities (29% v 83%), applying for jobs which require digital skills (54% v 89%), talking about examples of using digital media during job interviews (21% v 78%) and demonstration of creativity during assignment tasks (33% v 90%). Critical thinking was more commonly demonstrated during the debate in comparison to the slide deck activity (p = 0.001). The importance of developing digital skills, was higher following completion of the group activities (p = 0.03). Students reflected on the value of the group activities in relation to knowledge acquisition (85%, 86%), collegiality (70%, 71%), digital skills development (80%, 90%), the fact that the activities were enjoyable (70%, 67%) and the development of peer interaction and support (50%, 67%) in relation to assignment 1 and 2, respectively. Discussion: Increasingly digital technologies are being used in the healthcare sector resulting in updated HCPC Standards of Proficiency. This study highlights that virtual group activities promote the establishment of supportive learning communities and the development of transferable skills including digital capabilities for application within the biomedical science workplace

Coping with multiple enemies : pairwise interactions do not predict evolutionary change in complex multitrophic communities

Predicting the ecological and evolutionary trajectories of populations in multispecies communities is one of the fundamental challenges in ecology. Many of these predictions are made by scaling patterns observed from pairwise interactions. Here, we show that the coupling of ecological and evolutionary outcomes is likely to be weaker in increasingly complex communities due to greater chance of life-history trait correlations. Using model microbial communities comprising a focal bacterial species (Bacillus subtilis), a bacterial competitor, protist predator and phage parasite, we found that increasing the number of enemies in a community had an overall negative effect on B. subtilis population growth. However, only the competitor imposed direct selection for B. subtilis trait evolution in pairwise cultures and this effect was weakened in the presence of other antagonists that had a negative effect on the competitor. In contrast, adaptation to parasites was driven indirectly by correlated selection where competitors had a positive and predators a negative effect. For all measured traits, selection in pairwise communities was a poor predictor of B. subtilis evolution in more complex communities. Together, our results suggest that coupling of ecological and evolutionary outcomes is interaction-specific and weakly coupled in more complex communities. We conclude that understanding 2 the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning trait correlations is crucial to predict species response to global change in complex microbial communitie

A Coding Variant in TMC8 (EVER2) Is Associated with High Risk HPV Infection and Head and Neck Cancer Risk

HPV infection is a causal agent in many epithelial cancers, yet our understanding of genetic susceptibility to HPV infection and resultant cancer risk is limited. Epidermodysplasia Verruciformis is a rare condition of extreme susceptibility to cutaneous HPV infection primarily attributable to mutations in TMC6 and TMC8. Genetic variation in the TMC6/TMC8 region has been linked to beta-type HPV infection and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin, cervical cancer, HPV persistence and progression to cervical cancer. Here, we have tested the hypothesis that the common TMC8 SNP rs7208422 is associated with high-risk HPV infection and risk of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Seropositivity to the HPV L1 protein (HPV16, 18, 11, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58) was measured in 514 cases and 452 population-based controls. Genotype was significantly associated with seropositivity to HPV18 L1 (OR TT vs AA = 0.48, 95% CI = 0.22–0.99) and borderline significantly associated with HPV16 L1 (OR TT vs AA = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.22–1.17). There was a consistent inverse association between TMC8 genotype and infection with other HPV types, including statistically significant associations for HPV31 and HPV52. Consistent with these results, the variant T genotype was associated with a reduced risk of HNSCC (ORAT: 0.63, 95% CI 0.45–0.89, ORTT: 0.54, 95% CI 0.36–0.81), even among subjects seronegative for all HPV types (ORAT: 0.71, 95% CI 0.45–1.11, ORTT: 0.54, 95% CI 0.31–0.93). Our data indicate that common genetic variation in TMC8 is associated with high-risk HPV infection and HNSCC etiology

The Empowering Role of Mobile Apps in Behavior Change Interventions: The Gray Matters Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Health education and behavior change programs targeting specific risk factors have demonstrated their effectiveness in reducing the development of future diseases. Alzheimer disease (AD) shares many of the same risk factors, most of which can be addressed via behavior change. It is therefore theorized that a behavior change intervention targeting these risk factors would likely result in favorable rates of AD prevention. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to reduce the future risk of developing AD, while in the short term promoting vascular health, through behavior change. METHODS: The study was an interventional randomized controlled trial consisting of subjects who were randomly assigned into either treatment (n=102) or control group (n=42). Outcome measures included various blood-based biomarkers, anthropometric measures, and behaviors related to AD risk. The treatment group was provided with a bespoke “Gray Matters” mobile phone app designed to encourage and facilitate behavior change. The app presented evidence-based educational material relating to AD risk and prevention strategies, facilitated self-reporting of behaviors across 6 behavioral domains, and presented feedback on the user’s performance, calculated from reported behaviors against recommended guidelines. RESULTS: This paper explores the rationale for a mobile phone–led intervention and details the app’s effect on behavior change and subsequent clinical outcomes. Via the app, the average participant submitted 7.3 (SD 3.2) behavioral logs/day (n=122,719). Analysis of these logs against primary outcome measures revealed that participants who improved their high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels during the study duration answered a statistically significant higher number of questions per day (mean 8.30, SD 2.29) than those with no improvement (mean 6.52, SD 3.612), t(97.74)=−3.051, P=.003. Participants who decreased their body mass index (BMI) performed significantly better in attaining their recommended daily goals (mean 56.21 SD 30.4%) than those who increased their BMI (mean 40.12 SD 29.1%), t(80) = −2.449, P=.017. In total, 69.2% (n=18) of those who achieved a mean performance percentage of 60% or higher, across all domains, reduced their BMI during the study, whereas 60.7% (n=34) who did not, increased their BMI. One-way analysis of variance of systolic blood pressure category changes showed a significant correlation between reported efforts to reduce stress and category change as a whole, P=.035. An exit survey highlighted that respondents (n=83) reported that the app motivated them to perform physical activity (85.4%) and make healthier food choices (87.5%). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the ubiquitous nature of the mobile phone excelled as a delivery platform for the intervention, enabling the dissemination of educational intervention material while simultaneously monitoring and encouraging positive behavior change, resulting in desirable clinical effects. Sustained effort to maintain the achieved behaviors is expected to mitigate future AD risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrails.gov NCT02290912; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02290912 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6ictUEwnm

A global risk assessment of primates under climate and land use/cover scenarios

Primates are facing an impending extinction crisis, driven by extensive habitat loss, land use change, and hunting. Climate change is an additional threat, which alone or in combination with other drivers, may severely impact those taxa unable to track suitable environmental conditions. Here, we investigate the extent of climate and land use/cover (LUC) change‐related risks for primates. We employed an analytical approach to objectively select a subset of climate scenarios, for which we then calculated changes in climatic and LUC conditions for 2050 across primate ranges (N=426 species) under a best‐ and a worst‐case scenario. Generalised linear models were used to examine whether these changes varied according to region, conservation status, range extent, and dominant habitat. Finally, we reclassified primate ranges based on different magnitudes of maximum temperature change, and quantified the proportion of ranges overall and of primate hotspots in particular that are likely to be exposed to extreme temperature increases. We found that, under the worst‐case scenario, 74% of Neotropical forest‐dwelling primates are likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases up to 7°C. In contrast, 38% of Malagasy savanna primates will experience less pronounced warming of up to 3.5°C. About one quarter of Asian and African primates will face up to 50% crop expansion within their range. Primary land (undisturbed habitat) is expected to disappear across species’ ranges, whereas secondary land (disturbed habitat) will increase by up to 98%. With 86% of primate ranges likely to be exposed to maximum temperature increases >3°C, primate hotspots in the Neotropics are expected to be particularly vulnerable. Our study highlights the fundamental exposure risk of a large percentage of primate ranges to predicted climate and LUC changes. Importantly, our findings underscore the urgency with which climate change mitigation measures need to be implemented to avert primate extinctions on an unprecedented scale

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot : model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved