Using historical data to detect temporal changes in the abundances of intertidal species on Irish shores

An historical data set, collected in 1958 by Southward and Crisp, was used as a baseline for detecting change in the abundances of species in the rocky intertidal of Ireland. In 2003, the abundances of each of 27 species was assessed using the same methodologies (ACFOR [which stands for the categories: abundant, common, frequent, occasional and rare] abundance scales) at 63 shores examined in the historical study. Comparison of the ACFOR data over a 45-year period, between the historical survey and re-survey, showed statistically significant changes in the abundances of 12 of the 27 species examined. Two species (one classed as northern and one introduced) increased significantly in abundance while ten species (five classed as northern, one classed as southern and four broadly distributed) decreased in abundance. The possible reasons for the changes in species abundances were assessed not only in the context of anthropogenic effects, such as climate change and commercial exploitation, but also of operator error. The error or differences recorded among operators (i.e. research scientists) when assessing species abundance using ACFOR categories was quantified on four shores. Significant change detected in three of the 12 species fell within the margin of operator error. This effect of operator may have also contributed to the results of no change in the other 15 species between the two census periods. It was not possible to determine the effect of operator on our results, which can increase the occurrence of a false positive (Type 1) or of a false negative (Type 2) outcom

Differential effects of biological invasions on coastal blue carbon: A global review and meta‐analysis

Human‐caused shifts in carbon (C) cycling and biotic exchange are defining characteristics of the Anthropocene. In marine systems, saltmarsh, seagrass, and mangrove habitats—collectively known as “blue carbon” and coastal vegetated habitats (CVHs) —are a leading sequester of global C and increasingly impacted by exotic species invasions. There is growing interest in the effect of invasion by a diverse pool of exotic species on C storage and the implications for ecosystem‐based management of these systems. In a global meta‐analysis, we synthesized data from 104 papers that provided 345 comparisons of habitat‐level response (plant and soil C storage) from paired invaded and uninvaded sites. We found an overall net effect of significantly higher C pools in invaded CVHs amounting to 40% (±16%) higher C storage than uninvaded habitat, but effects differed among types of invaders. Elevated C storage was driven by blue C‐forming plant invaders (saltmarsh grasses, seagrasses, and mangrove trees) that intensify biomass per unit area, extend and elevate coastal wetlands, and convert coastal mudflats into C‐rich vegetated habitat. Introduced animal and structurally distinct primary producers had significant negative effects on C pools, driven by herbivory, trampling, and native species displacement. The role of invasion manifested differently among habitat types, with significant C storage increases in saltmarshes, decreases in seagrass, and no significant effect in mangroves. There were also counter‐directional effects by the same species in different systems or locations, which underscores the importance of combining data mining with analyses of mean effect sizes in meta‐analyses. Our study provides a quantitative basis for understanding differential effects of invasion on blue C habitats and will inform conservation strategies that need to balance management decisions involving invasion, C storage, and a range of other marine biodiversity and habitat functions in these coastal systems

A spherical shell numerical dynamo benchmark with pseudo vacuum magnetic boundary conditions

It is frequently considered that many planetary magnetic fields originate as a result of convection within planetary cores. Buoyancy forces responsible for driving the convection generate a fluid flow that is able to induce magnetic fields; numerous sophisticated computer codes are able to simulate the dynamic behaviour of such systems. This paper reports the results of a community activity aimed at comparing numerical results of several different types of computer codes that are capable of solving the equations of momentum transfer, magnetic field generation and heat transfer in the setting of a spherical shell, namely a sphere containing an inner core. The electrically conducting fluid is incompressible and rapidly rotating and the forcing of the flow is thermal convection under the Boussinesq approximation. We follow the original specifications and results reported in Harder & Hansen to construct a specific benchmark in which the boundaries of the fluid are taken to be impenetrable, non-slip and isothermal, with the added boundary condition for the magnetic field <b>B</b> that the field must be entirely radial there; this type of boundary condition for <b>B</b> is frequently referred to as ‘pseudo-vacuum’. This latter condition should be compared with the more frequently used insulating boundary condition. This benchmark is so-defined in order that computer codes based on local methods, such as finite element, finite volume or finite differences, can handle the boundary condition with ease. The defined benchmark, governed by specific choices of the Roberts, magnetic Rossby, Rayleigh and Ekman numbers, possesses a simple solution that is steady in an azimuthally drifting frame of reference, thus allowing easy comparison among results. Results from a variety of types of code are reported, including codes that are fully spectral (based on spherical harmonic expansions in angular coordinates and polynomial expansions in radius), mixed spectral and finite difference, finite volume, finite element and also a mixed Fourier-finite element code. There is good agreement among codes

Specific niche requirements underpin multidecadal range edge stability, but may introduce barriers for climate change adaptation

Aim: To investigate some of the environmental variables underpinning the past and present distribution of an ecosystem engineer near its poleward range edge. Location: >500 locations spanning >7,400 km around Ireland. Methods: We collated past and present distribution records on a known climate change indicator, the reef-forming worm Sabellaria alveolata (Linnaeus, 1767) in a biogeographic boundary region over 182 years (1836–2018). This included repeat sampling of 60 locations in the cooler 1950s and again in the warmer 2000s and 2010s. Using species distribution modelling, we identified some of the environmental drivers that likely underpin S. alveolata distribution towards the leading edge of its biogeographical range in Ireland. Results: Through plotting 981 records of presence and absence, we revealed a discontinuous distribution with discretely bounded sub- populations, and edges that coincide with the locations of tidal fronts. Repeat surveys of 60 locations across three time periods showed evidence of population increases, declines, local extirpation and recolonization events within the range, but no evidence of extensions beyond the previously identified distribution limits, despite decades of warming. At a regional scale, populations were relatively stable through time, but local populations in the cold Irish Sea appear highly dynamic and vulnerable to local extirpation risk. Contemporary distribution data (2013– 2018) computed with modelled environmental data identified specific niche requirements which can explain the many distribution gaps, namely wave height, tidal amplitude, stratification index, then substrate type. Main conclusions: In the face of climate warming, such specific niche requirements can create environmental barriers that may prevent species from extending beyond their leading edges. These boundaries may limit a species’ capacity to redistribute in response to global environmental change

Indications of marine bioinvasion from network theory

The transport of huge amounts of small aquatic organisms in the ballast tanks and at the hull of large cargo ships leads to ever increasing rates of marine bioinvasion. In this study, we apply a network theoretic approach to examine the introduction of invasive species into new ports by global shipping. This is the first stage of the invasion process where it is still possible to intervene with regulating measures. We compile a selection of widely used and newly developed network properties and apply these to analyse the structure and spread characteristics of the directed and weighted global cargo ship network (GCSN). Our results reveal that the GCSN is highly efficient, shows small world characteristics and is positive assortative, indicating that quick spread of invasive organisms between ports is likely. The GCSN shows strong community structure and contains two large communities, the Atlantic and Pacific trading groups. Ports that appear as connector hubs and are of high centralities are the Suez and Panama Canal, Singapore and Shanghai. Furthermore, from robustness analyses and the network’s percolation behaviour, we evaluate differences of onboard and in-port ballast water treatment, set them into context with previous studies and advise bioinvasion management strategies