Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Changes in plant communities over three decades on two disturbed bogs in southeastern Quebec.

Abstract Questions: Have the natural plant communities of two mined bogs experienced changes in composition and richness over a three-decade period, and are these changes associated with anthropogenic disturbances? Location: Bas-Saint-Laurent region, southeastern Que´bec, Canada. Methods: We monitored three decades of floristic changes in two disturbed bogs by revisiting 57 plots in 1998, which were previously sampled in 1965 and 1966. Changes in species richness and composition were evaluated using Wilcoxon signed rank tests, principal component analysis and partial redundancy analyses (pRDA). We also used pRDA and an indicator species analysis to determine which species had undergone the greatest changes over time. Variation partitioning was used to evaluate the relative influence of human disturbance in compositional change. Results: The main changes in the vegetation of the two bogs were 1) a decrease of overall species diversity, 2) an increase in the percent cover of trees and of species tolerant of shade or drought, and 3) a decrease in the cover of heliophilous species. Picea mariana, Sphagnum fuscum and Pleurozium schreberi increased in percent cover while Chamaedaphne calyculata and Sphagnum rubellum decreased in percent cover. Variation partitioning suggested that human activities had a significant impact on vegetation composition. Conclusion: The results indicated that substantial changes occurred in the vegetation of the natural fragments of these severely disturbed bogs. Although human activities were partially responsible for the changes, our study suggested that the drying of the peat surface due to drought during the 1960s and 1980s may have contributed to the vegetation changes

Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix

Hydroelectricity provides approximately 65% of Brazil’s power generating capacity, making the country vulnerable to droughts, which are becoming increasingly frequent. Current energy law and policy responses to the problem rely on a sectorial approach and prioritise energy security and market regulation. Brazil has opted to increase energy security levels during periods of hydrological variability with national grid interconnection and thermal plants backup. Additionally, Brazil has created the Energy Reallocation Mechanism (MRE) to manage the generators’ financial impacts in times of insufficient water. This policy, however, was unable to avoid the high financial exposure of generators in the spot market during the severe droughts experienced in the period 2013-2017. To explore how a more diversified electricity matrix can contribute to reducing hydrological risk, this article uses Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) techniques to analyse future macroeconomic and energy scenarios for Brazil in a global context, aligned with the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change. We show that the addition of non-hydro renewables is an advantage from the integrated Water-Energy-Food nexus perspective because it reduces trade-offs amongst the water and energy sectors. Our conclusions suggest that a nexus perspective can provide useful insights on how to design energy laws and policies.Philomathia Foundation; Cambridge Humanities Research Grant

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement aims to address the gap between existing climate policies and policies consistent with ‘holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C’. The feasibility of meeting the target has been questioned both in terms of the possible requirement for negative emissions, and ongoing debate on the sensitivity of the climate-carbon cycle system. Using a sequence of ensembles of a fully dynamic three-dimensional climate-carbon cycle model, forced by emissions from an integrated assessment model of regional-level climate policy, economy, and technological transformation, we show that a reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement is still technically achievable. Specifically, limiting peak (decadal) warming to less than 1.7°C, or end-century warming to less than 1.54°C, occurs in 50% of our simulations in a policy scenario without net negative emissions or excessive stringency in any policy domain. We evaluate two mitigation scenarios, with 200 GTC and 307 GTC post-2017 emissions, quantifying spatio-temporal variability of warming, precipitation, ocean acidification and marine productivity. Under rapid decarbonisation decadal variability dominates the mean response in critical regions, with significant implications for decision making, demanding impact methodologies that address non-linear spatio-temporal responses. Ignoring carbon-cycle feedback uncertainties (explaining 47% of peak warming uncertainty) becomes unreasonable under strong mitigation conditions.We acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (to J.-F.M., fellowship number EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (to J.-F.M., P.S. and J.E.V., EPSRC grant number EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant number ES/N013174/1), NERC (to N.R.E., P.H. and H.P., grant number NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (to P.S.), the Philomathia Foundation (to J.E.V.) and Horizon 2020 (to H.E.P. and J.-F.M., the Sim4Nexus project)

Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of 'IAMs'. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results

System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus

The Energy-Water-Food Nexus is one of the most complex sustainability challenges faced by the world. This is particularly true in Brazil, where insufficiently understood interactions within the Nexus are contributing to large-scale deforestation and land-use change, water and energy scarcity, and increased vulnerability to climate change. The reason is a combination of global environmental change and global economic change, putting unprecedented pressures on the Brazilian environment and ecosystems. In this paper, we identify and discuss the main Nexus challenges faced by Brazil across sectors (e.g. energy, agriculture, water) and scales (e.g. federal, state, municipal). We use four case studies to explore all nodes of the Nexus. For each, we analyse data from economic and biophysical modelling sources in combination with an overview of the legislative and policy landscape, in order to identify governance shortcomings in the context of growing challenges. We analyse the complex interdependence of developments at the global and local (Brazilian) levels, highlighting the impact of global environmental and economic change on Brazil and, conversely, that of developments in Brazil for other countries and the world. We conclude that there is a need to adjust the scientific approach to these challenges as an enabling condition for stronger science-policy bridges for sustainability policy-making. © 2019 The Author(s

Autism diagnosis differentiates neurophysiological responses to faces in adults with tuberous sclerosis complex

- Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a common and highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorder that is likely to be the outcome of complex aetiological mechanisms. One strategy to provide insight is to study ASD within tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC), a rare disorder with a high incidence of ASD, but for which the genetic cause is determined. Individuals with ASD consistently demonstrate face processing impairments, but these have not been examined in adults with TSC using event-related potentials (ERPs) that are able to capture distinct temporal stages of processing. - Methods: For adults with TSC (n = 14), 6 of which had a diagnosis of ASD, and control adults (n = 13) passively viewed upright and inverted human faces with direct or averted gaze, with concurrent EEG recording. Amplitude and latency of the P1 and N170 ERPs were measured. - Results: Individuals with TSC + ASD exhibited longer N170 latencies to faces compared to typical adults. Typical adults and adults with TSC-only exhibited longer N170 latency to inverted versus upright faces, whereas individuals with TSC + ASD did not show latency differences according to face orientation. In addition, individuals with TSC + ASD showed increased N170 latency to averted compared to direct gaze, which was not demonstrated in typical adults. A reduced lateralization was shown for the TSC + ASD groups on P1 and N170 amplitude. - Conclusions: The findings suggest that individuals with TSC + ASD may have similar electrophysiological abnormalities to idiopathic ASD and are suggestive of developmental delay. Identifying brain-based markers of ASD that are similar in TSC and idiopathic cases is likely to help elucidate the risk pathways to ASD

Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple, global energy- economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to mid-century. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary for driving widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient for bringing low-carbon vehicles to mass market, though it can certainly play a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonised energy supply

Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO₂ removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix

Enhanced Rock Weathering is a proposed Carbon Dioxide Removal technology involving the application of crushed silicate rocks, such as basalt, to agricultural soils with potential co-benefits for crops and soils, and mitigation of ocean acidification. Here we address the requirement of diverse stakeholders for informative studies quantifying possible environmental and health risks of Enhanced Rock Weathering. Using life-cycle assessment modelling of potential supply chain impacts for twelve nations undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering deployment to deliver up to net 2 Gt CO2 yr−1 CDR, we find that rock grinding rather than mining exerts the dominant influence on environmental impacts. This finding holds under both a business-as-usual and clean energy mix scenario to 2050 but transitioning to undertaking Enhanced Rock Weathering in the future with low carbon energy systems improves the sustainability of the Enhanced Rock Weathering supply chain. We find that Enhanced Rock Weathering is competitive with other large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal strategies in terms of energy and water demands