Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Primary Care Staff's Views and Experiences Related to Routinely Advising Patients about Physical Activity. A Questionnaire Survey

Background: United Kingdom public health policy has recently re-emphasised the role of primary health care professionals in tackling increasing levels of physical inactivity within the general population. However, little is known about the impact that this has had in practice. This study explores Scottish primary care staff's knowledge, attitudes and experiences associated with advising patients about physical activity during routine consultations. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey of general practitioners (or family physicians), practice nurses and health visitors based in four health regions was conducted during 2004. The main outcome measures included: i) health professionals' knowledge of the current physical activity recommendations; (ii) practice related to routine physical activity advising; and (iii) associated attitudes. Results: Questionnaires were returned by 757 primary care staff (response rate 54%). Confidence and enthusiasm for giving advice was generally high, but knowledge of current physical activity recommendations was low. In general, respondents indicated that they routinely discuss and advise patients about physical activity regardless of the presenting condition. Health visitors and practice nurses were more likely than general practitioners to offer routine advice. Lack of time and resources were more likely to be reported as barriers to routine advising by general practitioners than other professional groups. However, health visitors and practice nurses were also more likely than general practitioners to believe that patients would follow their physical activity advice giving. Conclusion: If primary health care staff are to be fully motivated and effective in encouraging and supporting the general population to become more physically active, policymakers and health professionals need to engage in efforts to: (1) improve knowledge of current physical activity recommendations and population trends amongst frontline primary care staff; and (2) consider the development of tools to support individual assessment and advice giving to suit individual circumstances. Despite the fact that this study found that system barriers to routine advising were less of a problem than other previous research has indicated, this issue still remains a challenge

Systematic review: measurement properties of patient-reported outcome measures evaluated with childhood brain tumor survivors or other acquired brain injury

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this recordBackground Survivors of childhood brain tumors or other acquired brain injury (ABI) are at risk of poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL); its valid and reliable assessment is essential to evaluate the effect of their illness on their lives. The aim of this review was to critically appraise psychometric properties of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) of HRQoL for these children, to be able to make informed decisions about the most suitable PROM for use in clinical practice. Methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO for studies evaluating measurement properties of HRQoL PROMs in children treated for brain tumors or other ABI. Methodological quality of relevant studies was evaluated using the consensus-based standards for the selection of health status measurement instruments checklist. Results Eight papers reported measurement properties of 4 questionnaires: Health Utilities Index (HUI), PedsQL Core and Brain Tumor Modules, and Child and Family Follow-up Survey (CFFS). Only the CFFS had evidence of content and structural validity. It also demonstrated good internal consistency, whereas both PedsQL modules had conflicting evidence regarding this. Conflicting evidence regarding test-retest reliability was reported for the HUI and PedsQL Core Module only. Evidence of measurement error/precision was favorable for HUI and CFFS and absent for both PedsQL modules. All 4 PROMs had some evidence of construct validity/hypothesis testing but no evidence of responsiveness to change. Conclusions Valid and reliable assessment is essential to evaluate impact of ABI on young lives. However, measurement properties of PROMs evaluating HRQoL appropriate for this population require further evaluation, specifically construct validity, internal consistency, and responsiveness to change.The Brain Tumour Charit

Exploring cancer register data to find risk factors for recurrence of breast cancer – application of Canonical Correlation Analysis

BACKGROUND: A common approach in exploring register data is to find relationships between outcomes and predictors by using multiple regression analysis (MRA). If there is more than one outcome variable, the analysis must then be repeated, and the results combined in some arbitrary fashion. In contrast, Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) has the ability to analyze multiple outcomes at the same time. One essential outcome after breast cancer treatment is recurrence of the disease. It is important to understand the relationship between different predictors and recurrence, including the time interval until recurrence. This study describes the application of CCA to find important predictors for two different outcomes for breast cancer patients, loco-regional recurrence and occurrence of distant metastasis and to decrease the number of variables in the sets of predictors and outcomes without decreasing the predictive strength of the model. METHODS: Data for 637 malignant breast cancer patients admitted in the south-east region of Sweden were analyzed. By using CCA and looking at the structure coefficients (loadings), relationships between tumor specifications and the two outcomes during different time intervals were analyzed and a correlation model was built. RESULTS: The analysis successfully detected known predictors for breast cancer recurrence during the first two years and distant metastasis 2–4 years after diagnosis. Nottingham Histologic Grading (NHG) was the most important predictor, while age of the patient at the time of diagnosis was not an important predictor. CONCLUSION: In cancer registers with high dimensionality, CCA can be used for identifying the importance of risk factors for breast cancer recurrence. This technique can result in a model ready for further processing by data mining methods through reducing the number of variables to important ones

Persistence and compliance to antidepressant treatment in patients with depression: A chart review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Adherence has recently been suggested to be divided into these two components: persistence (i.e., whether patients continue treatment or not) and compliance (i.e., whether patients take doses as instructed). However, no study has yet assessed these two clinically relevant components at the same time in adherence to antidepressant treatment in the clinical outpatient setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this retrospective chart-review, 6-month adherence to antidepressants was examined in 367 outpatients with a major depressive disorder (ICD-10) (170 males; mean ± SD age 37.6 ± 13.9 years), who started antidepressant treatment from April 2006 through March 2007. Additionally, we evaluated Medication Possession Rate (MPR), defined as the total days a medication was dispensed to patients divided by the treatment period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only 161 patients (44.3%) continued antidepressant treatment for 6 months. Among 252 patients who discontinued their initial antidepressant, 63.1% of these patients did so without consulting their physicians. Sertraline use was associated with a higher persistence rate at month 6 (odds ratio 2.59 in comparison with sulpiride), and the use of anxiolytic benzodiazepines had a positive effect on persistence to antidepressant treatment only at month 1 (odds ratio 2.14). An overall MPR was 0.77; 55.6% of patients were considered compliant (i.e., a MPR of ≥ 0.8).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Given a high rate of antidepressant discontinuation without consulting their physicians, closer communication between patients and their physicians should be encouraged. Although the use of anxiolytic benzodiazepines was associated with a higher persistence to antidepressant treatment at month 1, the use of these drugs should be avoided as a rule, given their well-known serious adverse effects.</p

Deathly Drool: Evolutionary and Ecological Basis of Septic Bacteria in Komodo Dragon Mouths

Komodo dragons, the world's largest lizard, dispatch their large ungulate prey by biting and tearing flesh. If a prey escapes, oral bacteria inoculated into the wound reputedly induce a sepsis that augments later prey capture by the same or other lizards. However, the ecological and evolutionary basis of sepsis in Komodo prey acquisition is controversial. Two models have been proposed. The “bacteria as venom” model postulates that the oral flora directly benefits the lizard in prey capture irrespective of any benefit to the bacteria. The “passive acquisition” model is that the oral flora of lizards reflects the bacteria found in carrion and sick prey, with no relevance to the ability to induce sepsis in subsequent prey. A third model is proposed and analyzed here, the “lizard-lizard epidemic” model. In this model, bacteria are spread indirectly from one lizard mouth to another. Prey escaping an initial attack act as vectors in infecting new lizards. This model requires specific life history characteristics and ways to refute the model based on these characteristics are proposed and tested. Dragon life histories (some details of which are reported here) prove remarkably consistent with the model, especially that multiple, unrelated lizards feed communally on large carcasses and that escaping, wounded prey are ultimately fed on by other lizards. The identities and evolutionary histories of bacteria in the oral flora may yield the most useful additional insights for further testing the epidemic model and can now be obtained with new technologies

Association between Radiologists' Experience and Accuracy in Interpreting Screening Mammograms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Radiologists have been observed to differ, sometimes substantially, both in their interpretations of mammograms and in their recommendations for follow-up. The aim of this study was to determine how factors related to radiologists' experience affect the accuracy of mammogram readings.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected a random sample of screening mammograms from a population-based breast cancer screening program. The sample was composed of 30 women with histopathologically-confirmed breast cancer and 170 women without breast cancer after a 2-year follow-up (the proportion of cancers was oversampled). These 200 mammograms were read by 21 radiologists routinely interpreting mammograms, with different amount of experience, and by seven readers who did not routinely interpret mammograms. All readers were blinded to the results of the screening. A positive assessment was considered when a BI-RADS III, 0, IV, V was reported (additional evaluation required). Diagnostic accuracy was calculated through sensitivity and specificity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average specificity was higher in radiologists routinely interpreting mammograms with regard to radiologists who did not (66% vs 56%; p < .001). Multivariate analysis based on routine readers alone showed that specificity was higher among radiologists who followed-up cases for which they recommended further workup (feedback) (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.85), those spending less than 25% of the working day on breast radiology (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.18 to 1.89), and those aged more than 45 years old (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.59); the variable of average annual volume of mammograms interpreted by radiologists, classified as more or less than 5,000 mammograms per year, was not statistically significant (OR 1.06; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.25).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Among radiologists who read routinely, volume is not associated with better performance when interpreting screening mammograms, although specificity decreased in radiologists not routinely reading mammograms. Follow-up of cases for which further workup is recommended might reduce variability in mammogram readings and improve the quality of breast cancer screening programs.</p

Fault-controlled hydration of the upper mantle during continental rifting

Water and carbon are transferred from the ocean to the mantle in a process that alters mantle peridotite to create serpentinite and supports diverse ecosystems1. Serpentinized mantle rocks are found beneath the sea floor at slow- to ultraslow-spreading mid-ocean ridges1 and are thought to be present at about half the world’s rifted margins2, 3. Serpentinite is also inferred to exist in the downgoing plate at subduction zones4, where it may trigger arc magmatism or hydrate the deep Earth. Water is thought to reach the mantle via active faults3, 4. Here we show that serpentinization at the rifted continental margin offshore from western Spain was probably initiated when the whole crust cooled to become brittle and deformation was focused along large normal faults. We use seismic tomography to image the three-dimensional distribution of serpentinization in the mantle and find that the local volume of serpentinite beneath thinned, brittle crust is related to the amount of displacement along each fault. This implies that sea water reaches the mantle only when the faults are active. We estimate the fluid flux along the faults and find it is comparable to that inferred for mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems. We conclude that brittle processes in the crust may ultimately control the global flux of sea water into the Earth

Tournaments and piece rates revisited: a theoretical and experimental study of output-dependent prize tournaments

Tournaments represent an increasingly important component of organizational compensation systems. While prior research focused on fixed-prize tournaments where the prize to be awarded is set in advance, we introduce ‘output-dependent prizes’ where the tournament prize is endogenously determined by agents’ output—it is high when the output is high and low when the output is low. We show that tournaments with output-dependent prizes outperform fixed-prize tournaments and piece rates. A multi-agent experiment supports the theoretical result