41 research outputs found

    60 Years of Glacier Elevation and Mass Changes in the Maipo River Basin, Central Andes of Chile

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    Glaciers in the central Andes of Chile are fundamental freshwater sources for ecosystems and communities. Overall, glaciers in this region have shown continuous recession and down-wasting, but long-term glacier mass balance studies providing precise estimates of these changes are scarce. Here, we present the first long-term (1955–2013/2015), region-specific glacier elevation and mass change estimates for the Maipo River Basin, from which the densely populated metropolitan region of Chile obtains most of its freshwater supply. We calculated glacier elevation and mass changes using historical topographic maps, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurements (TanDEM-X), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models. The results indicated a mean regional glacier mass balance of −0.12 ± 0.06 m w.e.a−1, with a total mass loss of 2.43 ± 0.26 Gt for the Maipo River Basin between 1955–2013. The most negative glacier mass balance was the Olivares sub-basin, with a mean value of −0.29 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1. We observed spatially heterogeneous glacier elevation and mass changes between 1955 and 2000, and more negative values between 2000 and 2013, with an acceleration in ice thinning rates starting in 2010, which coincides with the severe drought. Our results provide key information to improve glaciological and hydrological projections in a region where water resources are under pressure

    Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

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    Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

    Understanding Factors Associated With Psychomotor Subtypes of Delirium in Older Inpatients With Dementia

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    Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

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    BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

    Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

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    OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

    Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

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    AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

    Reanálisis de las series de mediciones del balance de masa del glaciar Echaurren Norte, Región Metropolitana, Chile

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    GeólogoLos glaciares son una de las principales reservas de agua dulce y representan un significativo aporte a los recursos hídricos, actuando como agentes reguladores del agua disponible en las cuencas andinas. Estudios relacionados con cambios en el balance de masa en los glaciares de montaña son fundamentales para el entendimiento del funcionamiento del sistema hídrico. Asimismo, posibilitan la comprensión de los efectos del cambio climático, del aumento del nivel del mar y manejo de reservas de agua, proporcionando información más precisa al momento de la toma de decisiones sobre el manejo presente y futuro de los recursos hídricos del país. El objetivo principal de este estudio es aplicar la metodología de reanálisis del balance de masa glaciar propuesta por Zemp (2013) para las series registradas en el glaciar Echaurren Norte (1982-2015), validando así la metodología para el hemisferio sur. Las prestaciones de esta metodología permiten su aplicación en un amplio número de glaciares de Chile. Las series de datos obtenidas mediante métodos de observación glaciológicos se acoplan a las series de datos independientes de métodos geodésicos (2009-2015) con el fin de determinar los errores sistemáticos y aleatorios de cada método, eliminando los errores sistemáticos. Se cuantifican los principales errores sistemáticos y aleatorios de cada método, y se realiza el testeo estadístico para la validación de los balances de masa glaciológico y geodésico. Una de las principales fuentes de error sistemático encontradas es la generada por la extrapolación de la acumulación y ablación a año hidrológico, la cual se corrige mediante el modelo del grado-día (Hock, 2003). Se determina que el balance de masa glaciológico acumulado no es estadísticamente igual al geodésico. A pesar de esto, no se realiza el proceso de calibración debido a que existen fuentes de error sistemático asociado a la serie glaciológica que no han sido cuantificadas todavía. Se discuten las posibles fuentes de error, entre las que destacan: la representatividad de la acumulación del pozo estratigráfico, las mediciones de densidad y la no cuantificación del balance interno y basal del glaciar. Finalmente, se valida la metodología del reanálisis y se aconseja acoplar los datos ya existentes de las mediciones glaciológicas y geodésicas para glaciares del hemisferio sur que posean series glaciológicas mayores a 5 años. Se deja propuesto un siguiente paso iterativo de reanálisis para el glaciar Echaurren Norte, en el que se agreguen datos de radio eco-sondaje y balance de energía. Se obtendría así una mejor aproximación del comportamiento del balance de masa del glaciar Echaurren Norte.Trabajo realizado con el apoyo de la Unidad de Glaciología y Nieves (UGN) de la Dirección General de Aguas (DGA), Ministerio de Obras Públicas (MOP

    "Delirium Day": A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

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    Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 ± 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys

    Understanding Factors Associated With Psychomotor Subtypes of Delirium in Older Inpatients With Dementia

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    Objectives: Few studies have analyzed factors associated with delirium subtypes. In this study, we investigate factors associated with subtypes of delirium only in patients with dementia to provide insights on the possible prevention and treatments. Design: This is a cross-sectional study nested in the \u201cDelirium Day\u201d study, a nationwide Italian point-prevalence study. Setting and Participants: Older patients admitted to 205 acute and 92 rehabilitation hospital wards. Measures: Delirium was evaluated with the 4-AT and the motor subtypes with the Delirium Motor Subtype Scale. Dementia was defined by the presence of a documented diagnosis in the medical records and/or prescription of acetylcholinesterase inhibitors or memantine prior to admission. Results: Of the 1057 patients with dementia, 35% had delirium, with 25.6% hyperactive, 33.1% hypoactive, 34.5% mixed, and 6.7% nonmotor subtype. There were higher odds of having venous catheters in the hypoactive (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.18-2.81) and mixed type of delirium (OR 2.23, CI 1.43-3.46), whereas higher odds of urinary catheters in the hypoactive (OR 2.91, CI 1.92-4.39), hyperactive (OR 1.99, CI 1.23-3.21), and mixed types of delirium (OR 2.05, CI 1.36-3.07). We found higher odds of antipsychotics both in the hyperactive (OR 2.87, CI 1.81-4.54) and mixed subtype (OR 1.84, CI 1.24-2.75), whereas higher odds of antibiotics was present only in the mixed subtype (OR 1.91, CI 1.26-2.87). Conclusions and Implications: In patients with dementia, the mixed delirium subtype is the most prevalent followed by the hypoactive, hyperactive, and nonmotor subtype. Motor subtypes of delirium may be triggered by clinical factors, including the use of venous and urinary catheters, and the use of antipsychotics. Future studies are necessary to provide further insights on the possible pathophysiology of delirium in patients with dementia and to address the optimization of the management of potential risk factors

    Drug Prescription and Delirium in Older Inpatients: Results From the Nationwide Multicenter Italian Delirium Day 2015-2016

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    Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the association between polypharmacy and delirium, the association of specific drug categories with delirium, and the differences in drug-delirium association between medical and surgical units and according to dementia diagnosis. Methods: Data were collected during 2 waves of Delirium Day, a multicenter delirium prevalence study including patients (aged 65 years or older) admitted to acute and long-term care wards in Italy (2015-2016); in this study, only patients enrolled in acute hospital wards were selected (n = 4,133). Delirium was assessed according to score on the 4 "A's" Test. Prescriptions were classified by main drug categories; polypharmacy was defined as a prescription of drugs from 5 or more classes. Results: Of 4,133 participants, 969 (23.4%) had delirium. The general prevalence of polypharmacy was higher in patients with delirium (67.6% vs 63.0%, P =.009) but varied according to clinical settings. After adjustment for confounders, polypharmacy was associated with delirium only in patients admitted to surgical units (OR = 2.9; 95% CI, 1.4-6.1). Insulin, antibiotics, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, and atypical antidepressants were associated with delirium, whereas statins and angiotensin receptor blockers exhibited an inverse association. A stronger association was seen between typical and atypical antipsychotics and delirium in subjects free from dementia compared to individuals with dementia (typical: OR = 4.31; 95% CI, 2.94-6.31 without dementia vs OR = 1.64; 95% CI, 1.19-2.26 with dementia; atypical: OR = 5.32; 95% CI, 3.44-8.22 without dementia vs OR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.26-2.40 with dementia). The absence of antipsychotics among the prescribed drugs was inversely associated with delirium in the whole sample and in both of the hospital settings, but only in patients without dementia. Conclusions: Polypharmacy is significantly associated with delirium only in surgical units, raising the issue of the relevance of medication review in different clinical settings. Specific drug classes are associated with delirium depending on the clinical setting and dementia diagnosis, suggesting the need to further explore this relationship
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