Variability of Millennial-Scale Trends in the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole

The historical trend in the axial dipole is sufficient to reverse the field in less than 2 kyr. Assessing the prospect of an imminent polarity reversal depends on the probability of sustaining the historical trend for long enough to produce a reversal. We use a stochastic model to predict the variability of trends for arbitrary time windows. Our predictions agree well with the trends computed from paleomagnetic models. Applying these predictions to the historical record shows that the current trend is likely due to natural variability. Furthermore, an extrapolation of the current trend for the next 1 to 2 kyr is highly unlikely. Instead, we compute the trend and time window needed to reverse the field with a specified probability. We find that the dipole could reverse in the next 20 kyr with a probability of 2%

Modeling of nutation-precession: very long baseline interferometry results

Analysis of over 20 years of very long baseline interferometry data (VLBI) yields estimates of the coefficients of the nutation series with standard deviations ranging from 5 microseconds of arc (μas) for the terms with periods <400 days to 38 µas for the longest-period terms. The largest deviations between the VLBI estimates of the amplitudes of terms in the nutation series and the theoretical values from the Mathews-Herring-Buffett (MHB2000) nutation series are 56 ± 38 μas (associated with two of the 18.6 year nutations). The amplitudes of nutational terms with periods <400 days deviate from the MHB2000 nutation series values at the level standard deviation. The estimated correction to the IAU-1976 precession constant is -2.997 ± 0.008 mas yr-1 when the coefficients of the MHB2000 nutation series are held fixed and is consistent with that inferred from the MHB2000 nutation theory. The secular change in the obliquity of the ecliptic is estimated to be -0.252 ± 0.003 mas yr-1. When the coefficients of the largest-amplitude terms in the nutation series are estimated, the precession constant correction and obliquity rate are estimated to be -2.960 ± 0.030 and -0.237 ± 0.012 mas yr-1. Significant variations in the freely excited retrograde free core nutation mode are observed over the 20 years. During this time the amplitude has decreased from -300 ± 50 μas in the mid-1980s to nearly zero by the year 2000. There is evidence that the amplitude of the mode in now increasing again

Variation in sub-arc mantle oxygen fugacity during partial melting recorded in refractory peridotite xenoliths from the West Bismarck Arc

This work was funded bygrants (DP120104240 and DE120100513) to Richard J Arculus andOliver Nebel from the Australian Research Council

Stochastic Heterogeneity Mapping around a Mediterranean salt lens

We present the first application of Stochastic Heterogeneity Mapping based on the band-limited von Kármán function to a seismic reflection stack of a Mediterranean water eddy (meddy), a large salt lens of Mediterranean water. This process extracts two stochastic parameters directly from the reflectivity field of the seismic data: the Hurst number, which ranges from 0 to 1, and the correlation length (scale length). Lower Hurst numbers represent a richer range of high wavenumbers and correspond to a broader range of heterogeneity in reflection events. The Hurst number estimate for the top of the meddy (0.39) compares well with recent theoretical work, which required values between 0.25 and 0.5 to model internal wave surfaces in open ocean conditions based on simulating a Garrett-Munk spectrum (GM76) slope of −2. The scale lengths obtained do not fit as well to seismic reflection events as those used in other studies to model internal waves. We suggest two explanations for this discrepancy: (1) due to the fact that the stochastic parameters are derived from the reflectivity field rather than the impedance field the estimated scale lengths may be underestimated, as has been reported; and (2) because the meddy seismic image is a two-dimensional slice of a complex and dynamic three-dimensional object, the derived scale lengths are biased to the direction of flow. Nonetheless, varying stochastic parameters, which correspond to different spectral slopes in the Garrett-Munk spectrum (horizontal wavenumber spectrum), can provide an estimate of different internal wave scales from seismic data alone. We hence introduce Stochastic Heterogeneity Mapping as a novel tool in physical oceanography

Thermal and electrical conductivity of iron at Earth's core conditions

The Earth acts as a gigantic heat engine driven by decay of radiogenic isotopes and slow cooling, which gives rise to plate tectonics, volcanoes, and mountain building. Another key product is the geomagnetic field, generated in the liquid iron core by a dynamo running on heat released by cooling and freezing to grow the solid inner core, and on chemical convection due to light elements expelled from the liquid on freezing. The power supplied to the geodynamo, measured by the heat-flux across the core-mantle boundary (CMB), places constraints on Earth's evolution. Estimates of CMB heat-flux depend on properties of iron mixtures under the extreme pressure and temperature conditions in the core, most critically on the thermal and electrical conductivities. These quantities remain poorly known because of inherent difficulties in experimentation and theory. Here we use density functional theory to compute these conductivities in liquid iron mixtures at core conditions from first principles- the first directly computed values that do not rely on estimates based on extrapolations. The mixtures of Fe, O, S, and Si are taken from earlier work and fit the seismologically-determined core density and inner-core boundary density jump. We find both conductivities to be 2-3 times higher than estimates in current use. The changes are so large that core thermal histories and power requirements must be reassessed. New estimates of adiabatic heat-flux give 15-16 TW at the CMB, higher than present estimates of CMB heat-flux based on mantle convection; the top of the core must be thermally stratified and any convection in the upper core driven by chemical convection against the adverse thermal buoyancy or lateral variations in CMB heat flow. Power for the geodynamo is greatly restricted and future models of mantle evolution must incorporate a high CMB heat-flux and explain recent formation of the inner core.Comment: 11 pages including supplementary information, two figures. Scheduled to appear in Nature, April 201

Long-Term Infection and Vertical Transmission of a Gammaretrovirus in a Foreign Host Species

Increasing evidence has indicated natural transspecies transmission of gammaretroviruses; however, viral-host interactions after initial xeno-exposure remain poorly understood. Potential association of xenotropic murine leukemia virus-related virus (XMRV) in patients with prostate cancer and chronic fatigue syndrome has attracted broad interests in this topic. Although recent studies have indicated that XMRV is unlikely a human pathogen, further understanding of XMRV xenoinfection would allow in vivo modeling of the initial steps of gammaretroviral interspecies transmission, evolution and dissemination in a new host population. In this study, we monitored the long-term consequences of XMRV infection and its possible vertical transmission in a permissive foreign host, wild-derived Mus pahari mice. One year post-infection, XMRV-infected mice showed no notable pathological changes, while proviral DNA was detected in three out of eight mice. XMRV-infected mice remained seropositive throughout the study although the levels of gp70 Env- and p30 capsid-specific antibodies gradually decreased. When vertical XMRV transmission was assessed, no viremia, humoral immune responses nor endogenization were observed in nine offspring from infected mothers, yet one offspring was found PCR-positive for XMRV-specific sequences. Amplified viral sequences from the offspring showed several mutations, including one amino acid deletion in the receptor binding domain of Env SU. Our results therefore demonstrate long-term asymptomatic infection, low incidence of vertical transmission and limited evolution of XMRV upon transspecies infection of a permissive new host, Mus pahari

Performance benchmarks for a next generation numerical dynamo model

Numerical simulations of the geodynamo have successfully represented many observable characteristics of the geomagnetic field, yielding insight into the fundamental processes that generate magnetic fields in the Earth's core. Because of limited spatial resolution, however, the diffusivities in numerical dynamo models are much larger than those in the Earth's core, and consequently, questions remain about how realistic these models are. The typical strategy used to address this issue has been to continue to increase the resolution of these quasi-laminar models with increasing computational resources, thus pushing them toward more realistic parameter regimes. We assess which methods are most promising for the next generation of supercomputers, which will offer access to O(106) processor cores for large problems. Here we report performance and accuracy benchmarks from 15 dynamo codes that employ a range of numerical and parallelization methods. Computational performance is assessed on the basis of weak and strong scaling behavior up to 16,384 processor cores. Extrapolations of our weak-scaling results indicate that dynamo codes that employ two-dimensional or three-dimensional domain decompositions can perform efficiently on up to ∼106 processor cores, paving the way for more realistic simulations in the next model generation