Scenario analysis can guide aquaculture planning to meet sustainable future production goals

Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.Versión del editor2,27

Coexistence of 'alpha+ 208Pb' cluster structures and single-particle excitations in 212Po

Excited states in 212Po have been populated by alpha transfer using the 208Pb(18O,14C) reaction at 85MeV beam energy and studied with the EUROBALL IV gamma multidetector array. The level scheme has been extended up to ~ 3.2 MeV excitation energy from the triple gamma coincidence data. Spin and parity values of most of the observed states have been assigned from the gamma angular distributions and gamma -gamma angular correlations. Several gamma lines with E(gamma) < 1 MeV have been found to be shifted by the Doppler effect, allowing for the measurements of the associated lifetimes by the DSAM method. The values, found in the range [0.1-0.6] ps, lead to very enhanced E1 transitions. All the emitting states, which have non-natural parity values, are discussed in terms of alpha-208Pb structure. They are in the same excitation-energy range as the states issued from shell-model configurations.Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures, corrected typos, revised arguments in Sect. III

Diagnosis, extent, impacts, and management of subsoil constraints in the northern grains cropping region of Australia

Productivity of grain crops grown under dryland conditions in north-eastern Australia depends on efficient use of rainfall and available soil moisture accumulated in the period preceding sowing. However, adverse subsoil conditions including high salinity, sodicity, nutrient imbalances, acidity, alkalinity, and high concentrations of chloride (Cl) and sodium (Na) in many soils of the region restrict ability of crop roots to access this stored water and nutrients. Planning for sustainable cropping systems requires identification of the most limiting constraint and understanding its interaction with other biophysical factors. We found that the primary effect of complex and variable combinations of subsoil constraints was to increase the crop lower limit (CLL), thereby reducing plant available water. Among chemical subsoil constraints, subsoil Cl concentration was a more effective indicator of reduced water extraction and reduced grain yields than either salinity or sodicity (ESP). Yield penalty due to high subsoil Cl was seasonally variable, with more in-crop rainfall (ICR) resulting in less negative impact. A conceptual model to determine realistic yield potential in the presence of subsoil Cl was developed from a significant positive linear relationship between CLL and subsoil Cl:Since grid sampling of soil to identify distribution of subsoil Cl, both spatially across landscape and within soil profile, is time-consuming and expensive, we found that electromagnetic induction, coupled with yield mapping and remote sensing of vegetation offers potential to rapidly identify possible subsoil Cl at paddock or farm scale.Plant species and cultivars were evaluated for their adaptations to subsoil Cl. Among winter crops, barley and triticale, followed by bread wheat, were more tolerant of high subsoil Cl concentrations than durum wheat. Chickpea and field pea showed a large decrease in yield with increasing subsoil Cl concentrations and were most sensitive of the crops tested. Cultivars of different winter crops showed minor differences in sensitivity to increasing subsoil Cl concentrations. Water extraction potential of oilseed crops was less affected than cereals with increasing levels of subsoil Cl concentrations. Among summer crops, water extraction potential of millet, mungbean, and sesame appears to be more sensitive to subsoil Cl than that of sorghum and maize; however, the differences were significant only to 0.7 m. Among pasture legumes, lucerne was more tolerant to high subsoil Cl concentrations than the others studied.Surface applied gypsum significantly improved wheat grain yield on soils with ESP >6 in surface soil (0–0.10 m). Subsurface applied gypsum at 0.20–0.30 m depth did not affect grain yield in the first year of application; however, there was a significant increase in grain yield in following years. Better subsoil P and Zn partially alleviated negative impact of high subsoil Cl. Potential savings from improved N fertilisation decisions for paddocks with high subsoil Cl are estimated at ~$AU10 million per annum

Missing values: sparse inverse covariance estimation and an extension to sparse regression

We propose an l1-regularized likelihood method for estimating the inverse covariance matrix in the high-dimensional multivariate normal model in presence of missing data. Our method is based on the assumption that the data are missing at random (MAR) which entails also the completely missing at random case. The implementation of the method is non-trivial as the observed negative log-likelihood generally is a complicated and non-convex function. We propose an efficient EM algorithm for optimization with provable numerical convergence properties. Furthermore, we extend the methodology to handle missing values in a sparse regression context. We demonstrate both methods on simulated and real data.Comment: The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Surface-wave imaging of the weakly-extended Malawi Rift from ambient-noise and teleseismic Rayleigh waves from onshore and lake-bottom seismometers

Located at the southernmost sector of the Western Branch of the East African Rift System, the Malawi Rift exemplifies an active, magma-poor, weakly extended continental rift. To investigate the controls on rifting, we image crustal and uppermost mantle structure beneath the region using ambient-noise and teleseismic Rayleigh-wave phase velocities between 9 and 100 s period. Our study includes six lake-bottom seismometers located in Lake Malawi (Nyasa), the first time seismometers have been deployed in any of the African rift lakes. Noise-levels in the lake are lower than that of shallow oceanic environments and allow successful application of compliance corrections and instrument orientation determination. Resulting phase-velocity maps reveal slow velocities primarily confined to Lake Malawi at short periods (T 25 s) a prominent low-velocity anomaly exists beneath the Rungwe Volcanic Province at the northern terminus of the rift basin. Estimates of phase-velocity sensitivity indicates these low velocities occur within the lithospheric mantle and potentially uppermost asthenosphere, suggesting that mantle processes may control the association of volcanic centers and the localization of magmatism. Beneath the main portion of the Malawi Rift, a modest reduction in velocity is also observed at periods sensitive to the crust and upper mantle, but these velocities are much higher than those observed beneath Rungwe

History and Applications of Dust Devil Studies

Studies of dust devils, and their impact on society, are reviewed. Dust devils have been noted since antiquity, and have been documented in many countries, as well as on the planet Mars. As time-variable vortex entities, they have become a cultural motif. Three major stimuli of dust devil research are identified, nuclear testing, terrestrial climate studies, and perhaps most significantly, Mars research. Dust devils present an occasional safety hazard to light structures and have caused several deaths

Eddy variability east of Madagascar

A strong but variable western boundary current flows south along the east coast of Madagascar, and at the island's southern end it interacts with eddies propagating zonally from the east. These two routes of variability are compared using altimetric sea-surface-height data and dynamic height from a high-resolution numerical model. The effects on biological productivity are also discussed

High subsoil chloride concentrations reduce soil water extraction and crop yield on Vertosols in north-eastern Australia

Salinity, sodicity, acidity, and phytotoxic levels of chloride (Cl) in subsoils are major constraints to crop production in many soils of north-eastern Australia because they reduce the ability of crop roots to extract water and nutrients from the soil. The complex interactions and correlations among soil properties result in multi-colinearity between soil properties and crop yield that makes it difficult to determine which constraint is the major limitation. We used ridge-regression analysis to overcome colinearity to evaluate the contribution of soil factors and water supply to the variation in the yields of 5 winter crops on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in the region. Subsoil constraints measured were soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The ridge regression procedure selected several of the variables used in a descriptive model, which included in-crop rainfall, plant-available soil water at sowing in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and soil Cl in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and accounted for 77-85% of the variation in the grain yields of the 5 winter crops. Inclusion of ESP of the top soil (0.0-0.10 m soil layer) marginally increased the descriptive capability of the models for bread wheat, barley and durum wheat. Subsoil Cl concentration was found to be an effective substitute for subsoil water extraction. The estimates of the critical levels of subsoil Cl for a 10% reduction in the grain yield were 492 mg cl/kg for chickpea, 662 mg Cl/kg for durum wheat, 854 mg Cl/kg for bread wheat, 980 mg Cl/kg for canola, and 1012 mg Cl/kg for barley, thus suggesting that chickpea and durum wheat were more sensitive to subsoil Cl than bread wheat, barley, and canola