The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results

Effect of Particle Damping on an Acoustically Excited Curved Vehicle Panel Structure with varied Equipment Assemblies

Particle dampers provide a mechanism for diverting energy away from resonant structural vibrations. This experimental study provides data from trials to determine how effective use of these dampers might be for equipment mounted to a curved orthogrid vehicle panel. Trends for damping are examined for variations in damper fill level, component mass, and excitation energy. A significant response reduction at the component level would suggest that comparatively small, thoughtfully placed, particle dampers might be advantageously used in vehicle design. The results of this test will be compared with baseline acoustic response tests and other follow-on testing involving a range of isolation and damping methods. Instrumentation consisting of accelerometers, microphones, and still photography data will be collected to correlate with the analytical results

The International Deep Planet Survey II: The frequency of directly imaged giant exoplanets with stellar mass

Radial velocity and transit methods are effective for the study of short orbital period exoplanets but they hardly probe objects at large separations for which direct imaging can be used. We carried out the international deep planet survey of 292 young nearby stars to search for giant exoplanets and determine their frequency. We developed a pipeline for a uniform processing of all the data that we have recorded with NIRC2/Keck II, NIRI/Gemini North, NICI/Gemini South, and NACO/VLT for 14 years. The pipeline first applies cosmetic corrections and then reduces the speckle intensity to enhance the contrast in the images. The main result of the international deep planet survey is the discovery of the HR 8799 exoplanets. We also detected 59 visual multiple systems including 16 new binary stars and 2 new triple stellar systems, as well as 2,279 point-like sources. We used Monte Carlo simulations and the Bayesian theorem to determine that 1.05[+2.80-0.70]% of stars harbor at least one giant planet between 0.5 and 14M_J and between 20 and 300 AU. This result is obtained assuming uniform distributions of planet masses and semi-major axes. If we consider power law distributions as measured for close-in planets instead, the derived frequency is 2.30[+5.95-1.55]%, recalling the strong impact of assumptions on Monte Carlo output distributions. We also find no evidence that the derived frequency depends on the mass of the hosting star, whereas it does for close-in planets. The international deep planet survey provides a database of confirmed background sources that may be useful for other exoplanet direct imaging surveys. It also puts new constraints on the number of stars with at least one giant planet reducing by a factor of two the frequencies derived by almost all previous works.Comment: 83 pages, 13 figures, 15 Tables, accepted in A&

Effective communication as a fundamental aspect of active aging and well-being: paying attention to the challenges older adults face in noisy environments

Successful communication is vital to active aging and well-being, yet virtually all older adults find it challenging to communicate effectively in noisy environments. The resulting discomfort and frustration can prompt withdrawal or avoidance of social situations, which, in turn, can severely limit the range of activities available to older adults and lead to a less active and satisfying lifestyle, and, in some cases, depression. Using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health’s (ICF) multifactorial model (WHO, 2001), we review the wider aspects of functioning and disability as they relate to hearing difficulties and communication, placing a particular emphasis on the work we, an international and interdisciplinary group of researchers, have done in the context of the ERA-NET funded interdisciplinary HEARATTN project. The ICF model is particularly fitting because it allows us to consider how physiological changes in hearing and cognition affect listening in various situations, what the consequences of these changes are for communicative abilities and social participation, and how this in turn affects life-space mobility, self-reported well-being, and, ultimately, quality of life. We will discuss how environmental conditions (both physical and social) and personal factors can affect how well older adults can communicate in the situations characteristic of everyday life. In the concluding section we discuss some behaviors, techniques and strategies that can be adopted to maintain or improve effective communication under difficult listening conditions

Evaluating Attenuation of Vibration Response using Particle Impact Damping for a Range of Equipment Assemblies

Particle dampers provide a mechanism for diverting energy away from resonant structural vibrations. This experimental study provides data from a series of acoustically excited tests to determine the effectiveness of these dampers for equipment mounted to a curved orthogrid panel for a launch vehicle application. Vibration attenuation trends are examined for variations in particle damper fill level, component mass, and excitation energy. A significant response reduction at the component level was achieved, suggesting that comparatively small, strategically placed, particle damper devices might be advantageously used in launch vehicle design. These test results were compared to baseline acoustic response tests without particle damping devices, over a range of isolation and damping parameters. Instrumentation consisting of accelerometers, microphones, and still photography data will be collected to correlate with the analytical results

What Caused the Significant Increase in Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Since the mid-20th Century?

As the upper layer of the world ocean warms gradually during the 20th century, the inter-ocean heat transport from the Indian to Atlantic basin should be enhanced, and the Atlantic Ocean should therefore gain extra heat due to the increased upper ocean temperature of the inflow via the Agulhas leakage. Consistent with this hypothesis, instrumental records indicate that the Atlantic Ocean has warmed substantially more than any other ocean basin since the mid-20th century. A surface-forced global ocean-ice coupled model is used to test this hypothesis and to find that the observed warming trend of the Atlantic Ocean since the 1950s is largely due to an increase in the inter-ocean heat transport from the Indian Ocean. Further analysis reveals that the increased inter-ocean heat transport is not only caused by the increased upper ocean temperature of the inflow but also, and more strongly, by the increased Agulhas Current leakage, which is augmented by the strengthening of the wind stress curl over the South Atlantic and Indian subtropical gyre

Remote sampling of biomarkers of inflammation with linked patient generated health data in patients with rheumatic diseases:an Ecological Momentary Assessment feasibility study

BACKGROUND: People with rheumatic diseases experience troublesome fluctuations in fatigue. Debated causes include pain, mood and inflammation. To determine the relationships between these potential causes, serial assessments are required but are methodologically challenging. This mobile health (mHealth) study explored the viability of using a smartphone app to collect patient-reported symptoms with contemporaneous Dried Blood Spot Sampling (DBSS) for inflammation. METHODS: Over 30 days, thirty-eight participants (12 RA, 13 OA, and 13 FM) used uMotif, a smartphone app, to report fatigue, pain and mood, on 5-point ordinal scales, twice daily. Daily DBSS, from which C-reactive Protein (CRP) values were extracted, were completed on days 1–7, 14 and 30. Participant engagement was determined based on frequency of data entry and ability to calculate within- and between-day symptom changes. DBSS feasibility and engagement was determined based on the proportion of samples returned and usable for extraction, and the number of days between which between-day changes in CRP which could be calculated (days 1–7). RESULTS: Fatigue was reported at least once on 1085/1140 days (95.2%). Approximately 65% of within- and between-day fatigue changes could be calculated. Rates were similar for pain and mood. A total of 287/342 (83.9%) DBSS, were returned, and all samples were viable for CRP extraction. Fatigue, pain and mood varied considerably, but clinically meaningful (≥ 5 mg/L) CRP changes were uncommon. CONCLUSIONS: Embedding DBSS in mHealth studies will enable researchers to obtain serial symptom assessments with matched biological samples. This provides exciting opportunities to address hitherto unanswerable questions, such as elucidating the mechanisms of fatigue fluctuations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12891-022-05723-w

Methodological choices in brucellosis burden of disease assessments: A systematic review

Background Foodborne and zoonotic diseases such as brucellosis present many challenges to public health and economic welfare. Increasingly, researchers and public health institutes use disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to generate a comprehensive comparison of the population health impact of these conditions. DALYs calculations, however, entail a number of methodological choices and assumptions, with data gaps and uncertainties to accommodate. Thisreview identifies existing brucellosis burden of disease studies and analyzes their methodological choices, assumptions, and uncertainties. It supports the Global Burden of Animal Diseases programme in the development of a systematic methodology to describe the impact of animal diseases on society, including human health. Methods/Principal findings A systematic search for brucellosis burden of disease calculations was conducted in pre-selected international and grey literature databases. Using a standardized reporting framework, we evaluated each estimate on a variety of key methodological assumptions necessary to compute a DALY. Fourteen studies satisfied the inclusion criteria (human brucellosis and quantification of DALYs). One study reported estimates at the global level, the rest were national or subnational assessments. Data regarding different methodological choices were extracted, including detailed assessments of the adopted disease models. Most studies retrieved brucellosis epidemiological data from administrative registries. Incidence data were often estimated on the basis of laboratory-confirmed tests. Not all studies included mortality estimates (Years of Life Lost) in their assessments due to lack of data or the assumption that brucellosis is not a fatal disease. Only two studies used a model with variable health states and corresponding disability weights. The rest used a simplified singular health state approach. Wide variation was seen in the duration chosen for brucellosis, ranging from 2 weeks to 4.5 years, irrespective of the whether a chronic state was included. Conclusion Available brucellosis burden of disease assessments vary widely in their methodology and assumptions. Further research is needed to better characterize the clinical course of brucellosis and to estimate case-fatality rates. Additionally, reporting of methodological choices should be improved to enhance transparency and comparability of estimates. These steps will increase the value of these estimates for policy makers