Using Hierarchical Centering to Facilitate a Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm for Random Effects Models

The first author was supported by a studentship jointly funded by the University of St Andrews and EPSRC, through the National Centre for Statistical Ecology (EPSRC grant EP/C522702/1), with subsequent funding from EPSRC/NERC grant EP/I000917/1.Hierarchical centering has been described as a reparameterization method applicable to random effects models. It has been shown to improve mixing of models in the context of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. A hierarchical centering approach is proposed for reversible jump MCMC (RJMCMC) chains which builds upon the hierarchical centering methods for MCMC chains and uses them to reparameterize models in an RJMCMC algorithm. Although these methods may be applicable to models with other error distributions, the case is described for a log-linear Poisson model where the expected value λλ includes fixed effect covariates and a random effect for which normality is assumed with a zero-mean and unknown standard deviation. For the proposed RJMCMC algorithm including hierarchical centering, the models are reparameterized by modelling the mean of the random effect coefficients as a function of the intercept of the λλ model and one or more of the available fixed effect covariates depending on the model. The method is appropriate when fixed-effect covariates are constant within random effect groups. This has an effect on the dynamics of the RJMCMC algorithm and improves model mixing. The methods are applied to a case study of point transects of indigo buntings where, without hierarchical centering, the RJMCMC algorithm had poor mixing and the estimated posterior distribution depended on the starting model. With hierarchical centering on the other hand, the chain moved freely over model and parameter space. These results are confirmed with a simulation study. Hence, the proposed methods should be considered as a regular strategy for implementing models with random effects in RJMCMC algorithms; they facilitate convergence of these algorithms and help avoid false inference on model parameters.PostprintPeer reviewe

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Guyana’s Prisons: Colonial Histories of Post-Colonial Challenges

This article argues that history can play a role in addressing present-day concerns about the form and function of incarceration in the post-colonial nation of Guyana. It analyses some of the key features of imprisonment during the British colonial period (1814–1966), and connects them to the challenges faced by the prisons sector since Independence in 1966. The authors suggest that an appreciation of the history of jails in Guyana – including issues connected with prison capacity, overcrowding, training and education, and rehabilitation – can play a role in inspiring and supporting change in the Guyana Prison Service. In this way, the article suggests, historical research can impact on the administration of criminal justice in Guyana – and potentially in other contemporary post-colonial contexts, both within, and beyond, the Caribbean region