Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia

Identification of regulatory variants associated with genetic susceptibility to meningococcal disease

Non-coding genetic variants play an important role in driving susceptibility to complex diseases but their characterization remains challenging. Here, we employed a novel approach to interrogate the genetic risk of such polymorphisms in a more systematic way by targeting specific regulatory regions relevant for the phenotype studied. We applied this method to meningococcal disease susceptibility, using the DNA binding pattern of RELA - a NF-kB subunit, master regulator of the response to infection - under bacterial stimuli in nasopharyngeal epithelial cells. We designed a custom panel to cover these RELA binding sites and used it for targeted sequencing in cases and controls. Variant calling and association analysis were performed followed by validation of candidate polymorphisms by genotyping in three independent cohorts. We identified two new polymorphisms, rs4823231 and rs11913168, showing signs of association with meningococcal disease susceptibility. In addition, using our genomic data as well as publicly available resources, we found evidences for these SNPs to have potential regulatory effects on ATXN10 and LIF genes respectively. The variants and related candidate genes are relevant for infectious diseases and may have important contribution for meningococcal disease pathology. Finally, we described a novel genetic association approach that could be applied to other phenotypes

Identification of regulatory variants associated with genetic susceptibility to meningococcal disease.

Non-coding genetic variants play an important role in driving susceptibility to complex diseases but their characterization remains challenging. Here, we employed a novel approach to interrogate the genetic risk of such polymorphisms in a more systematic way by targeting specific regulatory regions relevant for the phenotype studied. We applied this method to meningococcal disease susceptibility, using the DNA binding pattern of RELA - a NF-kB subunit, master regulator of the response to infection - under bacterial stimuli in nasopharyngeal epithelial cells. We designed a custom panel to cover these RELA binding sites and used it for targeted sequencing in cases and controls. Variant calling and association analysis were performed followed by validation of candidate polymorphisms by genotyping in three independent cohorts. We identified two new polymorphisms, rs4823231 and rs11913168, showing signs of association with meningococcal disease susceptibility. In addition, using our genomic data as well as publicly available resources, we found evidences for these SNPs to have potential regulatory effects on ATXN10 and LIF genes respectively. The variants and related candidate genes are relevant for infectious diseases and may have important contribution for meningococcal disease pathology. Finally, we described a novel genetic association approach that could be applied to other phenotypes

Comparison of the positive inotropic effects of serotonin, histamine, angiotensin II, endothelin and isoprenaline in the isolated human right atrium

The receptor systems through which serotonin (5-HT), histamine, angiotensin II and endothelin increase the force of contraction were studied in isolated right atria from patients without apparent heart failure. All agonists increased the atrial force of contraction in a concentration-dependent manner; maximal effects, however, were significantly less than those evoked by isoprenaline or Ca2+. 5-HT and histamine, but not angiotensin II and endothelin, activated adenylate cyclase, whereas endothelin and angiotensin II stimulated inositol phosphate generation. Experiments with subtype-selective antagonists revealed that histamine effects were mediated by H2-receptors (sensitive to ranitidine), 5-HT-effects by 5-HT4-receptors (sensitive to SDZ 205-557) and angiotensin II effects by AT1-receptors (sensitive to losartan). We conclude that in human right atria the force of contraction can be increased by cyclic AMP-dependent (histamine, 5-HT) and -independent (angiotensin II, endothelin) pathways. Compared to beta-adrenoceptors, however, all other receptor systems increase the force of contraction only submaximally indicating that the beta-adrenoceptor pathway is the most important physiological mechanism to regulate force of contraction and/or heart rate in the human hear

Aging‐related carcinoembryonic antigen‐related cell adhesion molecule 1 signaling promotes vascular dysfunction

Aging is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and therefore of particular interest for the prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the mechanisms underlying vascular aging are not well understood. Since carcinoembryonic antigen‐related cell adhesion molecule 1 (CEACAM1) is crucially involved in vascular homeostasis, we sought to identify the role of CEACAM1 in vascular aging. Using human internal thoracic artery and murine aorta, we show that CEACAM1 is upregulated in the course of vascular aging. Further analyses demonstrated that TNF‐α is CEACAM1‐dependently upregulated in the aging vasculature. Vice versa, TNF‐α induces CEACAM1 expression. This results in a feed‐forward loop in the aging vasculature that maintains a chronic pro‐inflammatory milieu. Furthermore, we demonstrate that age‐associated vascular alterations, that is, increased oxidative stress and vascular fibrosis, due to increased medial collagen deposition crucially depend on the presence of CEACAM1. Additionally, age‐dependent upregulation of vascular CEACAM1 expression contributes to endothelial barrier impairment, putatively via increased VEGF/VEGFR‐2 signaling. Consequently, aging‐related upregulation of vascular CEACAM1 expression results in endothelial dysfunction that may promote atherosclerotic plaque formation in the presence of additional risk factors. Our data suggest that CEACAM1 might represent an attractive target in order to delay physiological aging and therefore the transition to vascular disorders such as atherosclerosis