Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Development and initial validation of the Influences on Patient Safety Behaviours Questionnaire

YesBackground: Understanding the factors that make it more or less likely that healthcare practitioners (HCPs) will perform certain patient safety behaviors is important in developing effective intervention strategies. A questionnaire to identify determinants of HCP patient safety behaviors does not currently exist. This study reports the development and initial validation of the Influences on Patient Safety Behaviors Questionnaire (IPSBQ) based on the Theoretical Domains Framework. Methods: Two hundred and thirty-three HCPs from three acute National Health Service Hospital Trusts in the United Kingdom completed the 34-item measure focusing on one specific patient safety behavior (using pH as the first line method for checking the position of a nasogastric tube). Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was undertaken to generate the model of best fit. Results: The final questionnaire consisted of 11 factors and 23 items, and CFA produced a reasonable fit: χ2 (175) = 345.7, p < 0.001; CMIN/DF = 1.98; GFI = 0.90 and RMSEA = 0.06, as well as adequate levels of discriminant validity, and internal consistency (r = 0.21 to 0.64). Conclusions: A reliable and valid theoretically underpinned measure of determinants of HCP patient safety behavior has been developed. The criterion validity of the measure is still unknown and further work is necessary to confirm the reliability and validity of this measure for other patient safety behaviors

HEALTH:laparoscopic supracervical hysterectomy versus second-generation endometrial ablation for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Multidimensional prognostic indices for use in COPD patient care. A systematic review

Contains fulltext : 98117.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: A growing number of prognostic indices for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is developed for clinical use. Our aim is to identify, summarize and compare all published prognostic COPD indices, and to discuss their performance, usefulness and implementation in daily practice. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature search in both Pubmed and Embase up to September 2010. Selection criteria included primary publications of indices developed for stable COPD patients, that predict future outcome by a multidimensional scoring system, developed for and validated with COPD patients only. Two reviewers independently assessed the index quality using a structured screening form for systematically scoring prognostic studies. RESULTS: Of 7,028 articles screened, 13 studies comprising 15 indices were included. Only 1 index had been explored for its application in daily practice. We observed 21 different predictors and 7 prognostic outcomes, the latter reflecting mortality, hospitalization and exacerbation. Consistent strong predictors were FEV1 percentage predicted, age and dyspnoea. The quality of the studies underlying the indices varied between fairly poor and good. Statistical methods to assess the predictive abilities of the indices were heterogenic. They generally revealed moderate to good discrimination, when measured. Limitations: We focused on prognostic indices for stable disease only and, inevitably, quality judgment was prone to subjectivity. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 15 prognostic COPD indices. Although the prognostic performance of some of the indices has been validated, they all lack sufficient evidence for implementation. Whether or not the use of prognostic indices improves COPD disease management or patients' health is currently unknown; impact studies are required to establish this

Strategies to reduce medication errors with reference to older adults

Background  In Australia, around 59% of the general population uses prescription medication with this number increasing to about 86% in those aged 65 and over and 83% of the population over 85 using two or more medications simultaneously. A recent report suggests that between 2% and 3% of all hospital admissions in Australia may be medication related with older Australians at higher risk because of higher levels of medicine intake and increased likelihood of being admitted to hospital. The most common medication errors encountered in hospitals in Australia are prescription/medication ordering errors, dispensing, administration and medication recording errors. Contributing factors to these errors have largely not been reported in the hospital environment. In the community, inappropriate drugs, prescribing errors, administration errors, and inappropriate dose errors are most common. Objectives  To present the best available evidence for strategies to prevent or reduce the incidence of medication errors associated with the prescribing, dispensing and administration of medicines in the older persons in the acute, subacute and residential care settings, with specific attention to persons aged 65 years and over. Search strategy  Bibliographic databases PubMed, Embase, Current contents, The Cochrane Library and others were searched from 1986 to present along with existing health technology websites. The reference lists of included studies and reviews were searched for any additional literature. Selection criteria  Systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials and other research methods such as non-randomised controlled trials, longitudinal studies, cohort or case-control studies, or descriptive studies that evaluate strategies to identify and manage medication incidents. Those people who are involved in the prescribing, dispensing or administering of medication to the older persons (aged 65 years and older) in the acute, subacute or residential care settings were included. Where these studies were limited, evidence available on the general patient population was used. Data collection and analysis  Study design and quality were tabulated and relative risks, odds ratios, mean differences and associated 95% confidence intervals were calculated from individual comparative studies containing count data where possible. All other data were presented in a narrative summary. Results  Strategies that have some evidence for reducing medication incidents are: •  computerised physician ordering entry systems combined with clinical decision support systems; •  individual medication supply systems when compared with other dispensing systems such as ward stock approaches; •  use of clinical pharmacists in the inpatient setting; •  checking of medication orders by two nurses before dispensing medication; •  a Medication Administration Review and Safety committee; and •  providing bedside glucose monitors and educating nurses on importance of timely insulin administration. In general, the evidence for the effectiveness of intervention strategies to reduce the incidence of medication errors is weak and high-quality controlled trials are needed in all areas of medication prescription and delivery

To Test or to Treat? An Analysis of Influenza Testing and Antiviral Treatment Strategies Using Economic Computer Modeling

BACKGROUND: Due to the unpredictable burden of pandemic influenza, the best strategy to manage testing, such as rapid or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and antiviral medications for patients who present with influenza-like illness (ILI) is unknown.\ud \ud METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a set of computer simulation models to evaluate the potential economic value of seven strategies under seasonal and pandemic influenza conditions: (1) using clinical judgment alone to guide antiviral use, (2) using PCR to determine whether to initiate antivirals, (3) using a rapid (point-of-care) test to determine antiviral use, (4) using a combination of a point-of-care test and clinical judgment, (5) using clinical judgment and confirming the diagnosis with PCR testing, (6) treating all with antivirals, and (7) not treating anyone with antivirals. For healthy younger adults (<65 years old) presenting with ILI in a seasonal influenza scenario, strategies were only cost-effective from the societal perspective. Clinical judgment, followed by PCR and point-of-care testing, was found to be cost-effective given a high influenza probability. Doubling hospitalization risk and mortality (representing either higher risk individuals or more virulent strains) made using clinical judgment to guide antiviral decision-making cost-effective, as well as PCR testing, point-of-care testing, and point-of-care testing used in conjunction with clinical judgment. For older adults (> or = 65 years old), in both seasonal and pandemic influenza scenarios, employing PCR was the most cost-effective option, with the closest competitor being clinical judgment (when judgment accuracy > or = 50%). Point-of-care testing plus clinical judgment was cost-effective with higher probabilities of influenza. Treating all symptomatic ILI patients with antivirals was cost-effective only in older adults.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study delineated the conditions under which different testing and antiviral strategies may be cost-effective, showing the importance of accuracy, as seen with PCR or highly sensitive clinical judgment.\ud \u

Methods to Study Centrosomes and Cilia in Drosophila

The deposited item is a book chapter and is part of the series " Methods in Molecular Biology book series ([MIMB, volume 1454]) published by the publisher Humana Press.The deposited book chapter is a pre-print version and hasn't been submitted to peer reviewing.There is no public supplementary material available for this publication.This publication hasn't any creative commons license associated.Centrioles and cilia are highly conserved eukaryotic organelles. Drosophila melanogaster is a powerful genetic and cell biology model organism, extensively used to discover underlying mechanisms of centrosome and cilia biogenesis and function. Defects in centrosomes and cilia reduce fertility and affect different sensory functions, such as proprioception, olfaction, and hearing. The fly possesses a large diversity of ciliary structures and assembly modes, such as motile, immotile, and intraflagellar transport (IFT)-independent or IFT-dependent assembly. Moreover, all the diverse ciliated cells harbor centrioles at the base of the cilia, called basal bodies, making the fly an attractive model to better understand the biology of this organelle. This chapter describes protocols to visualize centrosomes and cilia by fluorescence and electron microscopy.Fundação Portuguesa para a Ciência e Tecnologia grants: (SFRH/BPD/87479/2012, SFRH/BD/52176/2013); EMBO installation grant; ERC starting grant.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Basal Body Positioning Is Controlled by Flagellum Formation in Trypanosoma brucei

To perform their multiple functions, cilia and flagella are precisely positioned at the cell surface by mechanisms that remain poorly understood. The protist Trypanosoma brucei possesses a single flagellum that adheres to the cell body where a specific cytoskeletal structure is localised, the flagellum attachment zone (FAZ). Trypanosomes build a new flagellum whose distal tip is connected to the side of the old flagellum by a discrete structure, the flagella connector. During this process, the basal body of the new flagellum migrates towards the posterior end of the cell. We show that separate inhibition of flagellum assembly, base-to-tip motility or flagella connection leads to reduced basal body migration, demonstrating that the flagellum contributes to its own positioning. We propose a model where pressure applied by movements of the growing new flagellum on the flagella connector leads to a reacting force that in turn contributes to migration of the basal body at the proximal end of the flagellum

Regulatory sites for splicing in human basal ganglia are enriched for disease-relevant information

Genome-wide association studies have generated an increasing number of common genetic variants associated with neurological and psychiatric disease risk. An improved understanding of the genetic control of gene expression in human brain is vital considering this is the likely modus operandum for many causal variants. However, human brain sampling complexities limit the explanatory power of brain-related expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and allele-specific expression (ASE) signals. We address this, using paired genomic and transcriptomic data from putamen and substantia nigra from 117 human brains, interrogating regulation at different RNA processing stages and uncovering novel transcripts. We identify disease-relevant regulatory loci, find that splicing eQTLs are enriched for regulatory information of neuron-specific genes, that ASEs provide cell-specific regulatory information with evidence for cellular specificity, and that incomplete annotation of the brain transcriptome limits interpretation of risk loci for neuropsychiatric disease. This resource of regulatory data is accessible through our web server, http://braineacv2.inf.um.es/

Spatial Analyses of Benthic Habitats to Define Coral Reef Ecosystem Regions and Potential Biogeographic Boundaries along a Latitudinal Gradient

Marine organism diversity typically attenuates latitudinally from tropical to colder climate regimes. Since the distribution of many marine species relates to certain habitats and depth regimes, mapping data provide valuable information in the absence of detailed ecological data that can be used to identify and spatially quantify smaller scale (10 s km) coral reef ecosystem regions and potential physical biogeographic barriers. This study focused on the southeast Florida coast due to a recognized, but understudied, tropical to subtropical biogeographic gradient. GIS spatial analyses were conducted on recent, accurate, shallow-water (0–30 m) benthic habitat maps to identify and quantify specific regions along the coast that were statistically distinct in the number and amount of major benthic habitat types. Habitat type and width were measured for 209 evenly-spaced cross-shelf transects. Evaluation of groupings from a cluster analysis at 75% similarity yielded five distinct regions. The number of benthic habitats and their area, width, distance from shore, distance from each other, and LIDAR depths were calculated in GIS and examined to determine regional statistical differences. The number of benthic habitats decreased with increasing latitude from 9 in the south to 4 in the north and many of the habitat metrics statistically differed between regions. Three potential biogeographic barriers were found at the Boca, Hillsboro, and Biscayne boundaries, where specific shallow-water habitats were absent further north; Middle Reef, Inner Reef, and oceanic seagrass beds respectively. The Bahamas Fault Zone boundary was also noted where changes in coastal morphologies occurred that could relate to subtle ecological changes. The analyses defined regions on a smaller scale more appropriate to regional management decisions, hence strengthening marine conservation planning with an objective, scientific foundation for decision making. They provide a framework for similar regional analyses elsewhere