The growth companies puzzle: can growth opportunities measures predict firm growth?

While numerous empirical studies include proxies for growth opportunities in their analyses, there is limited evidence as to the validity of the various growth proxies used. Based on a sample of 1942 firm-years for listed UK companies over the 1990-2004 period, we assess the performance of eight growth opportunities measures. Our results show that while all the growth measures show some ability to predict growth in company sales, total assets, or equity, there are substantial differences between the various models. In particular, Tobin's Q performs poorly while dividend-based measures generally perform best. However, none of the measures has any success in predicting earnings per share growth, even when controlling for mean reversion and other time-series patterns in earnings. We term this the 'growth companies puzzle'. Growth companies do grow, but they do not grow in the key dimension (earnings) theory predicts. Whether the failure of 'growth companies' to deliver superior earnings growth is attributable to increased competition, poor investments, or behavioural biases, it is still a puzzle why growth companies on average fail to deliver superior earnings growth

Single-inhaler fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol versus fluticasone furoate/vilanterol plus umeclidinium using two inhalers for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A randomized non-inferiority study

Background: Single-inhaler fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) 100/62.5/25 μg has been shown to improve lung function and health status, and reduce exacerbations, versus budesonide/formoterol in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We evaluated the non-inferiority of single-inhaler FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI + UMEC using two inhalers. Methods: Eligible patients with COPD (aged ≥40 years; ≥1 moderate/severe exacerbation in the 12 months before screening) were randomized (1:1; stratified by the number of long-acting bronchodilators [0, 1 or 2] per day during run-in) to receive 24-week FF/UMEC/VI 100/62.5/25 μg and placebo or FF/VI 100/25 μg + UMEC 62.5 μg; all treatments/placebo were delivered using the ELLIPTA inhaler once-daily in the morning. Primary endpoint: change from baseline in trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) at Week 24. The non-inferiority margin for the lower 95% confidence limit was set at − 50 mL. Results: A total of 1055 patients (844 [80%] of whom were enrolled on combination maintenance therapy) were randomized to receive FF/UMEC/VI (n = 527) or FF/VI + UMEC (n = 528). Mean change from baseline in trough FEV1 at Week 24 was 113 mL (95% CI 91, 135) for FF/UMEC/VI and 95 mL (95% CI 72, 117) for FF/VI + UMEC; the between-treatment difference of 18 mL (95% CI -13, 50) confirmed FF/UMEC/VI’s was considered non-inferior to FF/ VI + UMEC. At Week 24, the proportion of responders based on St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire Total score was 50% (FF/UMEC/VI) and 51% (FF/VI + UMEC); the proportion of responders based on the Transitional Dyspnea Index focal score was similar (56% both groups). A similar proportion of patients experienced a moderate/severe exacerbation in the FF/UMEC/VI (24%) and FF/VI + UMEC (27%) groups; the hazard ratio for time to first moderate/ severe exacerbation with FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI + UMEC was 0.87 (95% CI 0.68, 1.12). The incidence of adverse events was comparable in both groups (48%); the incidence of serious adverse events was 10% (FF/UMEC/VI) and 11% (FF/VI + UMEC). Conclusions: Single-inhaler triple therapy (FF/UMEC/VI) is non-inferior to two inhalers (FF/VI + UMEC) on trough FEV1 change from baseline at 24 weeks. Results were similar on all other measures of efficacy, health-related quality of life, and safety. Trial registration: GSK study CTT200812; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02729051 (submitted 31 March 2016)

Noise-induced volatility of collective dynamics

"Noise-induced volatility" refers to a phenomenon of increased level of fluctuations in the collective dynamics of bistable units in the presence of a rapidly varying external signal, and intermediate noise levels. The archetypical signature of this phenomenon is that --beyond the increase in the level of fluctuations-- the response of the system becomes uncorrelated with the external driving force, making it different from stochastic resonance. Numerical simulations and an analytical theory of a stochastic dynamical version of the Ising model on regular and random networks demonstrate the ubiquity and robustness of this phenomenon, which is argued to be a possible cause of excess volatility in financial markets, of enhanced effective temperatures in a variety of out-of-equilibrium systems and of strong selective responses of immune systems of complex biological organisms. Extensive numerical simulations are compared with a mean-field theory for different network topologies

Improving response rates using a monetary incentive for patient completion of questionnaires: an observational study

Background: Poor response rates to postal questionnaires can introduce bias and reduce the statistical power of a study. To improve response rates in our trial in primary care we tested the effect of introducing an unconditional direct payment of 5 pound for the completion of postal questionnaires. Methods: We recruited patients in general practice with knee problems from sites across the United Kingdom. An evidence-based strategy was used to follow-up patients at twelve months with postal questionnaires. This included an unconditional direct payment of 5 pound to patients for the completion and return of questionnaires. The first 105 patients did not receive the 5 pound incentive, but the subsequent 442 patients did. We used logistic regression to analyse the effect of introducing a monetary incentive to increase the response to postal questionnaires. Results: The response rate following reminders for the historical controls was 78.1% ( 82 of 105) compared with 88.0% ( 389 of 442) for those patients who received the 5 pound payment (diff = 9.9%, 95% CI 2.3% to 19.1%). Direct payments significantly increased the odds of response ( adjusted odds ratio = 2.2, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.0, P = 0.009) with only 12 of 442 patients declining the payment. The incentive did not save costs to the trial - the extra cost per additional respondent was almost 50 pound. Conclusion: The direct payment of 5 pound significantly increased the completion of postal questionnaires at negligible increase in cost for an adequately powered study

Levosimendan for the prevention of acute organ dysfunction in sepsis

BACKGROUND Levosimendan is a calcium-sensitizing drug with inotropic and other properties that may improve outcomes in patients with sepsis. METHODS We conducted a double-blind, randomized clinical trial to investigate whether levosimendan reduces the severity of organ dysfunction in adults with sepsis. Patients were randomly assigned to receive a blinded infusion of levosimendan (at a dose of 0.05 to 0.2 μg per kilogram of body weight per minute) for 24 hours or placebo in addition to standard care. The primary outcome was the mean daily Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in the intensive care unit up to day 28 (scores for each of five systems range from 0 to 4, with higher scores indicating more severe dysfunction; maximum score, 20). Secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality, time to weaning from mechanical ventilation, and adverse events. RESULTS The trial recruited 516 patients; 259 were assigned to receive levosimendan and 257 to receive placebo. There was no significant difference in the mean (±SD) SOFA score between the levosimendan group and the placebo group (6.68±3.96 vs. 6.06±3.89; mean difference, 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], −0.07 to 1.29; P=0.053). Mortality at 28 days was 34.5% in the levosimendan group and 30.9% in the placebo group (absolute difference, 3.6 percentage points; 95% CI, −4.5 to 11.7; P=0.43). Among patients requiring ventilation at baseline, those in the levosimendan group were less likely than those in the placebo group to be successfully weaned from mechanical ventilation over the period of 28 days (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.97; P=0.03). More patients in the levosimendan group than in the placebo group had supraventricular tachyarrhythmia (3.1% vs. 0.4%; absolute difference, 2.7 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.1 to 5.3; P=0.04). CONCLUSIONS The addition of levosimendan to standard treatment in adults with sepsis was not associated with less severe organ dysfunction or lower mortality. Levosimendan was associated with a lower likelihood of successful weaning from mechanical ventilation and a higher risk of supraventricular tachyarrhythmia. (Funded by the NIHR Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme and others; LeoPARDS Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN12776039.

Once-Daily Triple Therapy in Patients with COPD: Patient-Reported Symptoms and Quality of Life.

INTRODUCTION: Directly recorded patient experience of symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) can complement lung function and exacerbation rate data in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) clinical studies. The FULFIL study recorded daily symptoms and activity limitation together with additional patient-reported outcomes of dyspnea and HRQoL, as part of the prespecified analyses. FULFIL co-primary endpoint data have been previously reported. METHODS: FULFIL was a phase III, 24-week, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, multicenter study comparing once-daily single inhaler triple therapy [fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI)] 100 µg/62.5 µg/25 µg with twice-daily inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting β2-agonist therapy [budesonide/formoterol (BUD/FOR)] 400 µg/12 µg in patients with symptomatic COPD at risk of exacerbations. A subset participated for 52 weeks. Patient-reported assessments were: Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD™ (E-RS: COPD), St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) for COPD, COPD Assessment Test (CAT), baseline and transitional dyspnea indices (TDI) and daily and global anchor questions for activity limitation. RESULTS: FF/UMEC/VI showed greater reductions from baseline in 4-weekly mean E-RS: COPD total and all subscale scores compared with BUD/FOR; differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05) at each time period. FF/UMEC/VI also demonstrated greater improvements from baseline at weeks 4 and 24 in SGRQ domain scores and TDI focal score compared with BUD/FOR. At weeks 4 and 24, improvements greater than the minimal clinically important difference from baseline were observed in CAT score with FF/UMEC/VI, but not BUD/FOR; differences were statistically significant (P ≤ 0.003). CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate sustained daily symptom and HRQoL benefits of FF/UMEC/VI versus BUD/FOR. The inclusion of the CAT may provide data that are readily generalizable to everyday clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02345161. FUNDING: GSK

A system dynamics model of capital structure policy for firm value maximization

The complexity surrounding the maximization of firm value agenda demands a comprehensive causal model that effectively embeds the intertwining relationships of the variables and the policies involved. System dynamics provides an appropriate methodology to model and simulate such complex relationships to facilitate decision making in a complex business environment. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of capital structure policy, being a key managerial decision, on the firm value. For this purpose, the study develops a system dynamics‐based corporate planning model for an oil firm, including the operational as well as financial processes. Various scenarios and capital structure policies have been designed and simulated to identify the policy that helps in increasing the firm value. The results demonstrate that increase in debt percentage in capital structure mix increase the firm value.publishedVersio

Studying a disease with no home - lessons in trial recruitment from the PATCH II study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cellulitis is a very common condition that often recurs. The PATCH II study was designed to explore the possibility of preventing future episodes of cellulitis, with resultant cost savings for the NHS. This was the first trial to be undertaken by the UK Dermatology Clinical Trials Network. As such, it was the first to test a recruitment model that involved many busy clinicians each contributing just a few patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A double-blind randomised controlled trial comparing prophylactic antibiotics (penicillin V) with placebo tablets, for the prevention of repeat episodes of cellulitis of the leg. Primary outcome was time to subsequent recurrence of cellulitis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The PATCH II study was closed to recruitment having enrolled 123 participants from a target of 400. Whilst the recruitment period was extended by 12 months, it was not possible to continue beyond this point without additional funds. Many factors contributed to poor recruitment: (i) changes in hospital policy and the introduction of community-based intravenous teams resulted in fewer cellulitis patients being admitted to hospital; ii) those who were admitted were seen by many different specialties, making it difficult for a network of dermatology clinicians to identify suitable participants; and iii) funding for research staff was limited to a trial manager and a trial administrator at the co-ordinating centre. With no dedicated research nurses at the recruiting centres, it was extremely difficult to maintain momentum and interest in the study. Attempts to boost recruitment by providing some financial support for principal investigators to employ local research staff was of limited success.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The model of a network of busy NHS clinicians all recruiting a few patients into large clinical studies requires further testing. It did not work very well for PATCH II, but this was probably because patients were not routinely seen by dermatologists, and recruitment took place prior to research support being available through the Comprehensive Clinical Research Network (CCRN). There is a balance to be struck between asking a lot of centres to recruit just a few patients, and asking a few centres to recruit a lot of patients. Giving modest funds to principal investigators to buy local research nurse time did not work well, probably because too little research time was bought, and it was difficult to separate research tasks from the nurses existing clinical duties. National research infrastructure networks such as the Comprehensive Clinical Research Network will overcome many of the problems encountered in the PATCH II trial.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The trial registration number is ISRCTN03813200.</p