Spying in Multi-market Oligopolies

We consider a multimarket framework where a set of firms compete on two interrelated oligopolis- tic markets. Prior to competing in these markets, firms can spy on others in order to increase the quality of their product. We characterize the equilibrium espionage networks and networks that maximize social welfare under the most interesting scenario of diseconomies of scope. We find that in some situations firms may refrain from spying even if it is costless. Moreover, even though spying leads to increased product quality, there exist situations where it is detrimental to both consumer welfare and social welfare.

In situ study of soil processes in an oxisol-spodosol sequence of Amazonia (Brazil)

L'étude in situ de l'évolution d'échantillons de vermiculite et de résines à cations échangeables et kelates insérés dans le sol met en évidence les processsus pédogénétiques caractérisant une séquence de sols de la région de Manaus (Brésil

Network connectivity under node failure

We examine a non-cooperative model of network formation where players may stop functioning. We identify conditions under which Nash and efficient networks will remain connected after the loss of kk nodes by introducing the notion of kk-Node Super Connectivity

Clinical evaluation of tuberculosis viability microscopy for assessing treatment response

Background. It is difficult to determine whether early tuberculosis treatment is effective in reducing the infectiousness of patients' sputum, because culture takes weeks and conventional acid-fast sputum microscopy and molecular tests cannot differentiate live from dead tuberculosis. Methods. To assess treatment response, sputum samples (n = 124) from unselected patients (n = 35) with sputum microscopy–positive tuberculosis were tested pretreatment and after 3, 6, and 9 days of empiric first-line therapy. Tuberculosis quantitative viability microscopy with fluorescein diacetate, quantitative culture, and acid-fast auramine microscopy were all performed in triplicate. Results. Tuberculosis quantitative viability microscopy predicted quantitative culture results such that 76% of results agreed within ±1 logarithm (r(S) = 0.85; P < .0001). In 31 patients with non-multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis, viability and quantitative culture results approximately halved (both 0.27 log reduction, P < .001) daily. For patients with non-MDR tuberculosis and available data, by treatment day 9 there was a >10-fold reduction in viability in 100% (24/24) of cases and quantitative culture in 95% (19/20) of cases. Four other patients subsequently found to have MDR tuberculosis had no significant changes in viability (P = .4) or quantitative culture (P = .6) results during early treatment. The change in viability and quantitative culture results during early treatment differed significantly between patients with non-MDR tuberculosis and those with MDR tuberculosis (both P < .001). Acid-fast microscopy results changed little during early treatment, and this change was similar for non-MDR tuberculosis vs MDR tuberculosis (P = .6). Conclusions. Tuberculosis quantitative viability microscopy is a simple test that within 1 hour predicted quantitative culture results that became available weeks later, rapidly indicating whether patients were responding to tuberculosis therapy

Confirming Information Flows in Networks

Social networks, be it on the internet or in real life, facilitate information flows. We model this by giving agents incentives to link with others and receive information through those links. In many networks agents will value confirmation of the information they receive from others. Our paper analyzes the impact such a need for confirmation has on the social networks which are formed. We first study the existence of Nash equilibria and then characterize the set of strict Nash networks. Next, we characterize the set of strictly ecient networks and discuss the relationship between strictly efficient networks and strict Nash networks

Exhaled Nitric Oxide is Not a Biomarker for Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

To reduce transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in resource-limited countries where TB remains a major cause of mortality, novel diagnostic tools are urgently needed. We evaluated the fractional concentration of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) as an easily measured, noninvasive potential biomarker for diagnosis and monitoring of treatment response in participants with pulmonary TB including multidrug resistant-TB in Lima, Peru. In a longitudinal study however, we found no differences in baseline median FeNO levels between 38 TB participants and 93 age-matched controls (13 parts per billion [ppb] [interquartile range (IQR) = 8-26] versus 15 ppb [IQR = 12-24]), and there was no change over 60 days of treatment (15 ppb [IQR = 10-19] at day 60). Taking this and previous evidence together, we conclude FeNO is not of value in either the diagnosis of pulmonary TB or as a marker of treatment response

Isolation of Angola-like Marburg virus from Egyptian rousette bats from West Africa.

Marburg virus (MARV) causes sporadic outbreaks of severe Marburg virus disease (MVD). Most MVD outbreaks originated in East Africa and field studies in East Africa, South Africa, Zambia, and Gabon identified the Egyptian rousette bat (ERB; Rousettus aegyptiacus) as a natural reservoir. However, the largest recorded&nbsp;MVD outbreak with the highest case-fatality ratio happened in 2005 in Angola, where direct spillover from bats was not&nbsp; shown. Here, collaborative studies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Njala University, University of California, Davis USAID-PREDICT, and the University of Makeni identify MARV circulating in ERBs in Sierra Leone. PCR, antibody and virus isolation data from 1755 bats of 42 species shows active MARV infection in approximately 2.5% of ERBs. Phylogenetic analysis identifies MARVs that are similar to the Angola strain. These results provide evidence of MARV circulation in West Africa and demonstrate the value of pathogen surveillance to identify previously undetected threats

Dynamics of Cough Frequency in Adults Undergoing Treatment for Pulmonary Tuberculosis.

Background: Cough is the major determinant of tuberculosis transmission. Despite this, there is a paucity of information regarding characteristics of cough frequency throughout the day and in response to tuberculosis therapy. Here we evaluate the circadian cycle of cough, cough frequency risk factors, and the impact of appropriate treatment on cough and bacillary load. Methods: We prospectively evaluated human immunodeficiency virus-negative adults (n = 64) with a new diagnosis of culture-proven, drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis immediately prior to treatment and repeatedly until treatment day 62. At each time point, participant cough was recorded (n = 670) and analyzed using the Cayetano Cough Monitor. Consecutive coughs at least 2 seconds apart were counted as separate cough episodes. Sputum samples (n = 426) were tested with microscopic-observation drug susceptibility broth culture, and in culture-positive samples (n = 252), the time to culture positivity was used to estimate bacillary load. Results: The highest cough frequency occurred from 1 pm to 2 pm, and the lowest from 1 am to 2 am (2.4 vs 1.1 cough episodes/hour, respectively). Cough frequency was higher among participants who had higher sputum bacillary load (P < .01). Pretreatment median cough episodes/hour was 2.3 (interquartile range [IQR], 1.2-4.1), which at 14 treatment days decreased to 0.48 (IQR, 0.0-1.4) and at the end of the study decreased to 0.18 (IQR, 0.0-0.59) (both reductions P < .001). By 14 treatment days, the probability of culture conversion was 29% (95% confidence interval, 19%-41%). Conclusions: Coughs were most frequent during daytime. Two weeks of appropriate treatment significantly reduced cough frequency and resulted in one-third of participants achieving culture conversion. Thus, treatment by 2 weeks considerably diminishes, but does not eliminate, the potential for airborne tuberculosis transmission

Long-term sediment decline causes ongoing shrinkage of the Mekong megadelta, Vietnam

Since the 1990s the Mekong River delta has suffered a large decline in sediment supply causing coastal erosion, following catchment disturbance through hydropower dam construction and sand extraction. However, our new geological reconstruction of 2500-years of delta shoreline changes show that serious coastal erosion actually started much earlier. Data shows the sandy coast bounding river mouths accreted consistently at a rate of +2 to +4 km2/year. In contrast, we identified a variable accretion rate of the muddy deltaic protrusion at Camau; it was < +1 km2/year before 1400 years ago but increased drastically around 600 years ago, forming the entire Camau Peninsula. This high level of mud supply had sharply declined by the early 20th century after a vast canal network was built on the delta. Since then the Peninsula has been eroding, promoted by the conjunction of mud sequestration in the delta plain driven by expansion of rice cultivation, and hysteresis of long-term muddy sedimentation that left the protrusion exposed to wave erosion. Natural mitigation would require substantial increases in sediment supply well above the pre-1990s levels