How to Choose a Champion

League competition is investigated using random processes and scaling techniques. In our model, a weak team can upset a strong team with a fixed probability. Teams play an equal number of head-to-head matches and the team with the largest number of wins is declared to be the champion. The total number of games needed for the best team to win the championship with high certainty, T, grows as the cube of the number of teams, N, i.e., T ~ N^3. This number can be substantially reduced using preliminary rounds where teams play a small number of games and subsequently, only the top teams advance to the next round. When there are k rounds, the total number of games needed for the best team to emerge as champion, T_k, scales as follows, T_k ~N^(\gamma_k) with gamma_k=1/[1-(2/3)^(k+1)]. For example, gamma_k=9/5,27/19,81/65 for k=1,2,3. These results suggest an algorithm for how to infer the best team using a schedule that is linear in N. We conclude that league format is an ineffective method of determining the best team, and that sequential elimination from the bottom up is fair and efficient.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Interpretable Deep Models for Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy Response Prediction

Advances in deep learning (DL) have resulted in impressive accuracy in some medical image classification tasks, but often deep models lack interpretability. The ability of these models to explain their decisions is important for fostering clinical trust and facilitating clinical translation. Furthermore, for many problems in medicine there is a wealth of existing clinical knowledge to draw upon, which may be useful in generating explanations, but it is not obvious how this knowledge can be encoded into DL models - most models are learnt either from scratch or using transfer learning from a different domain. In this paper we address both of these issues. We propose a novel DL framework for image-based classification based on a variational autoencoder (VAE). The framework allows prediction of the output of interest from the latent space of the autoencoder, as well as visualisation (in the image domain) of the effects of crossing the decision boundary, thus enhancing the interpretability of the classifier. Our key contribution is that the VAE disentangles the latent space based on `explanations' drawn from existing clinical knowledge. The framework can predict outputs as well as explanations for these outputs, and also raises the possibility of discovering new biomarkers that are separate (or disentangled) from the existing knowledge. We demonstrate our framework on the problem of predicting response of patients with cardiomyopathy to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) from cine cardiac magnetic resonance images. The sensitivity and specificity of the proposed model on the task of CRT response prediction are 88.43% and 84.39% respectively, and we showcase the potential of our model in enhancing understanding of the factors contributing to CRT response.Comment: MICCAI 2020 conferenc

Atomic diffraction from nanostructured optical potentials

We develop a versatile theoretical approach to the study of cold-atom diffractive scattering from light-field gratings by combining calculations of the optical near-field, generated by evanescent waves close to the surface of periodic nanostructured arrays, together with advanced atom wavepacket propagation on this optical potential.Comment: 8 figures, 10 pages, submitted to Phys. Rev.

High-throughput identification of genotype-specific cancer vulnerabilities in mixtures of barcoded tumor cell lines.

Hundreds of genetically characterized cell lines are available for the discovery of genotype-specific cancer vulnerabilities. However, screening large numbers of compounds against large numbers of cell lines is currently impractical, and such experiments are often difficult to control. Here we report a method called PRISM that allows pooled screening of mixtures of cancer cell lines by labeling each cell line with 24-nucleotide barcodes. PRISM revealed the expected patterns of cell killing seen in conventional (unpooled) assays. In a screen of 102 cell lines across 8,400 compounds, PRISM led to the identification of BRD-7880 as a potent and highly specific inhibitor of aurora kinases B and C. Cell line pools also efficiently formed tumors as xenografts, and PRISM recapitulated the expected pattern of erlotinib sensitivity in vivo

Detection of brown dwarf-like objects in the core of NGC3603

We use near-infrared data obtained with the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope to identify objects having the colors of brown dwarfs (BDs) in the field of the massive galactic cluster NGC 3603. These are identified through use of a combination of narrow and medium band filters spanning the J and H bands, and which are particularly sensitive to the presence of the 1.3-1.5{\mu}m H2O molecular band - unique to BDs. We provide a calibration of the relationship between effective temperature and color for both field stars and for BDs. This photometric method provides effective temperatures for BDs to an accuracy of {\pm}350K relative to spectroscopic techniques. This accuracy is shown to be not significantly affected by either stellar surface gravity or uncertainties in the interstellar extinction. We identify nine objects having effective temperature between 1700 and 2200 K, typical of BDs, observed J-band magnitudes in the range 19.5-21.5, and that are strongly clustered towards the luminous core of NGC 3603. However, if these are located at the distance of the cluster, they are far too luminous to be normal BDs. We argue that it is unlikely that these objects are either artifacts of our dataset, normal field BDs/M-type giants or extra-galactic contaminants and, therefore, might represent a new class of stars having the effective temperatures of BDs but with luminosities of more massive stars. We explore the interesting scenario in which these objects would be normal stars that have recently tidally ingested a Hot Jupiter, the remnants of which are providing a short-lived extended photosphere to the central star. In this case, we would expect them to show the signature of fast rotation.Comment: 26 Pages, 8 Figures, Accepted for publication on Ap

An Estimation of Erinaceidae Phylogeny: A Combined Analysis Approach

BACKGROUND: Erinaceidae is a family of small mammals that include the spiny hedgehogs (Erinaceinae) and the silky-furred moonrats and gymnures (Galericinae). These animals are widely distributed across Eurasia and Africa, from the tundra to the tropics and the deserts to damp forests. The importance of these animals lies in the fact that they are the oldest known living placental mammals, which are well represented in the fossil record, a rarity fact given their size and vulnerability to destruction during fossilization. Although the Family has been well studied, their phylogenetic relationships remain controversial. To test previous phylogenetic hypotheses, we combined molecular and morphological data sets, including representatives of all the genera. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included in the analyses 3,218 bp mitochondrial genes, one hundred and thirty-five morphological characters, twenty-two extant erinaceid taxa, and five outgroup taxa. Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using both partitioned and combined data sets. As in previous analyses, our results strongly support the monophyly of both subfamilies (Galericinae and Erinaceinae), the Hylomys group (to include Neotetracus and Neohylomys), and a sister-relationship of Atelerix and Erinaceus. As well, we verified that the extremely long branch lengths within the Galericinae are consistent with their fossil records. Not surprisingly, we found significant incongruence between the phylogenetic signals of the genes and the morphological characters, specifically in the case of Hylomys parvus, Mesechinus, and relationships between Hemiechinus and Paraechinus. CONCLUSIONS: Although we discovered new clues to understanding the evolutionary relationships within the Erinaceidae, our results nonetheless, strongly suggest that more robust analyses employing more complete taxon sampling (to include fossils) and multiple unlinked genes would greatly enhance our understanding of the Erinaceidae. Until then, we have left the nomenclature of the taxa unchanged; hence it does not yet precisely reflect their phylogenetic relationships or the depth of their genetic diversity

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying the evolution of form and function in the amniote jaw.

The amniote jaw complex is a remarkable amalgamation of derivatives from distinct embryonic cell lineages. During development, the cells in these lineages experience concerted movements, migrations, and signaling interactions that take them from their initial origins to their final destinations and imbue their derivatives with aspects of form including their axial orientation, anatomical identity, size, and shape. Perturbations along the way can produce defects and disease, but also generate the variation necessary for jaw evolution and adaptation. We focus on molecular and cellular mechanisms that regulate form in the amniote jaw complex, and that enable structural and functional integration. Special emphasis is placed on the role of cranial neural crest mesenchyme (NCM) during the species-specific patterning of bone, cartilage, tendon, muscle, and other jaw tissues. We also address the effects of biomechanical forces during jaw development and discuss ways in which certain molecular and cellular responses add adaptive and evolutionary plasticity to jaw morphology. Overall, we highlight how variation in molecular and cellular programs can promote the phenomenal diversity and functional morphology achieved during amniote jaw evolution or lead to the range of jaw defects and disease that affect the human condition

A Calanais myth and an alignment of the east stone-row with both the rising of the Pleiades and crossovers of Venus at sunrise on the summer solstices

Acknowledgements My thanks to Stefan Sagrott of Historic Environment Scotland for his help in obtaining Patrick Ashmore’s data and to David Forrest, School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, for providing a copy of David Tait’s map of Calanais.Peer reviewedPublisher PD