The critical role of history in scenario thinking: augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

The historian Eric Hobsbawm stated that ‘The safest empirical generalization about history is still that nobody heeds its obvious lessons much’. Whether at a macroeconomic level or within individual organisations there are numerous examples of this, such as the economic crash of 2008, the causes of which had many parallels with those that caused the great depression 80 years previously. On the other hand however, overly-relying on the past as a guide to the future has its own obvious dangers – not least that important future events may have no past precedent. As such, the present paper firstly provides a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of using the past as a guide to the future. It then examines the role of history in scenario work, arguing that history should receive greater emphasis as part of the scenario planning process. We suggest changes to the standard Intuitive Logics (IL) approach to scenario planning which would render learning from history a more central component of the scenario process, in contrast to its current peripheral role. Rather than diminishing scenario planning’s ability to facilitate a consideration of how the future may differ from the past, we show how a greater emphasis on history can enhance consideration of the causality of future change. An adapted IL that has more emphasis on historical analysis can augment scenario planning’s effectiveness as a tool for consideration of the future

The importance of Complex Product Systems to the space industry in Australia : a small satellite case study

The great paradox of the space industry in Australia is why, given a strong history of space involvement and a capacity for excellence in space and other complex projects, Australia is unique among developed countries in that it does not have a recognisable space agency and it has little space policy. To try and understand this paradox, this thesis follows the development of the FedSat satellite project, formed in 1998 to ‘re-ignite the Australian Space Industry’. It asks the central question, “Can Australia develop an indigenous satellite industry made up if high-value, complex products?”, framed against the backdrop of innovation, management and policy issues in a multidisciplinary context. The techniques used to analyse the FedSat project draw heavily on the Complex Product System (CoPS) framework, which proposes that high-cost, one-off products have unique innovation, management and policy dimensions and as such, require a different approach to analysis. It is found that CoPS are not only an ideal mechanism for analysing a satellite project, but also a means of placing the space industry within the purview of innovation theory for future comparison with other projects across a range of industry sectors. Within the space industry, a popular management technique in the 1990s was the ‘Faster, Better, Cheaper’ Small Satellite Philosophy. This philosophy was applied during the development of the satellite project, once successfully and once unsuccessfully, highlighting the importance of the inherent drivers of the management philosophy. A theory is developed around the Small Satellite Philosophy to give benefits to other reduced resource CoPS, giving an insight into the relationship between complexity, management and risk in these projects. As a key aspect of answering the research question, the policy issues surrounding the development of the satellite under the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) programme are presented. It is found that, while there may be an inherent capacity within Australia for the development of CoPS, Australia’s innovation policy does not recognise their importance and the CRC framework is inherently unsuited to their development. The key conclusion of the thesis is that, based on the current space policy and innovation mechanisms in Australia, it is currently impossible for Australia to develop a space industry made up of high-value, complex products. However, drawing on the FedSat experience, a new way for Australia to enter the space industry is presented; one that is based on the formation of specific policy to address the development of CoPS. This policy would enable projects such as FedSat to be properly coordinated and funded, if it is found that they are in the national interest and continue to build the nation’s capability in the development of complex products. This thesis aims to contribute to literature on both the application of CoPS to new industries and the development of the space industry in Australia, through the empirical analysis of a high-profile Australian project. Indeed, ideas developed in this study will form a resource for the future development of other indigenous space projects within Australia and CoPS projects internationally

Nuclear factor κB-inducing kinase activation as a mechanism of pancreatic β cell failure in obesity

The nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) pathway is a master regulator of inflammatory processes and is implicated in insulin resistance and pancreatic β cell dysfunction in the metabolic syndrome. Whereas canonical NF-κB signaling is well studied, there is little information on the divergent noncanonical NF-κB pathway in the context of pancreatic islet dysfunction. Here, we demonstrate that pharmacological activation of the noncanonical NF-κB-inducing kinase (NIK) disrupts glucose homeostasis in zebrafish in vivo. We identify NIK as a critical negative regulator of β cell function, as pharmacological NIK activation results in impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in mouse and human islets. NIK levels are elevated in pancreatic islets isolated from diet-induced obese (DIO) mice, which exhibit increased processing of noncanonical NF-κB components p100 to p52, and accumulation of RelB. TNF and receptor activator of NF-κB ligand (RANKL), two ligands associated with diabetes, induce NIK in islets. Mice with constitutive β cell-intrinsic NIK activation present impaired insulin secretion with DIO. NIK activation triggers the noncanonical NF-κB transcriptional network to induce genes identified in human type 2 diabetes genome-wide association studies linked to β cell failure. These studies reveal that NIK contributes a central mechanism for β cell failure in diet-induced obesity

Potential surprise theory as a theoretical foundation for scenario planning

Despite some recent progress, scenario planning’s development as an academic discipline remains constrained by the perception it is solely a practical tool for thinking about the future, with limited theoretical foundations. The paper addresses this issue by showing that G. L. S. Shackle’s ‘Potential Surprise Theory’ (PST) contains much that can lend theoretical support to scenario planning - especially its use of plausibility rather than probability, and its focus on potential extreme outcomes. Moreover, PST and scenario planning share the same ontology, viewing the future as constructed by the imagination of individuals. Yet, under PST, while the future is imagined and, therefore, subjective, individuals nevertheless seek to identify the ‘best’ option through a deductive process of elimination. PST therefore assists in overcoming the divide between the constructivist and deductivist perspectives in scenario planning as it employs both. Finally, the paper shows that theoretically underpinning scenario planning with PST would place it at the heart of contemporary debates on decision making under uncertainty taking place in economics and other fields, enhancing its status and profile as a discipline

Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting

In this paper we show that New Product Development (NPD) is subject to fundamental uncertainty that is both epistemic and ontic in nature. We argue that this uncertainty cannot be mitigated using forecasting techniques exclusively, because these are most useful in circumstances characteristic of probabilistic risk, as distinct from non-probabilistic uncertainty. We show that the mitigation of uncertainty in relation to NPD requires techniques able to take account of the socio-economic factors that can combine to cause present assumptions about future demand conditions to be incorrect. This can be achieved through an Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty associated with NPD by incorporating insights from both quantitative modelling alongside consideration of political, social, technological and legal factors, as-well-as stakeholder motivations that are central to successful NPD. In this paper we therefore achieve three objectives: 1) identify the aspects of the current IL process salient to mitigating the uncertainty of NPD; 2) show how advances in diffusion modelling can be used to identify the social-network and contagion effects that lead to a product's full diffusion; and 3) show how the IL process can be further enhanced to facilitate detailed consideration of the factors enabling and inhibiting initial market-acceptance, and then the forecasted full diffusion of a considered new product. We provide a step-by-step guide to the implementation of this adapted IL scenario planning process designed specifically to mitigate uncertainty in relation to NP

An overview of knowledge sharing in new product development

This paper provides an overview of some of the issues in knowledge management related to the sharing of knowledge in new product development. Previous research and concepts reported by international researchers, and examples of the research projects carried out by the authors will be introduced. The paper first provides an overview of the history and importance of innovation and challenges in manufacturing. Then the importance of new product development in the sustainable success of manufacturing enterprises in the globalised business operations is discussed. The formalisation and modelling of product development processes will also be introduced. The concept and different definitions of knowledge management by previous researchers are then introduced, with further discussion on knowledge sharing. At this point, the authors’ research in knowledge sharing is also introduced. Finally, the trend of using social media and Enterprise 2 technologies in knowledge management and sharing is introduced using the recent research projects of the authors as examples