Log periodic analysis of critical crashes in the portuguese stock market

Mestrado em Ciências EmpresariaisO estudo de fenómenos críticos que se originaram nas ciências naturais e encontraram muitos campos de aplicação foi estendido nos últimos anos aos campos da economia de finanças, fornecendo aos investigadores novas abordagens para problemas conhecidos, nomeadamente aos que estão relacionados com a gestão de risco, a previsão, o estudo de bolhas financeiras e crashes, e muitos outros tipos de problemas que envolvem sistemas com criticalidade auto-organizada. A teoria de singularidades de tempo oscilatório auto-similares é apresentada, uma metodologia prática é exposta, juntamente com alguns resultados de análises semelhantes de diferentes mercados em todo o mundo, como uma maneira de obter de alguns exemplos da forma como a função "linear" log-periódica de potências funciona. Apresento alguns contextos onde o tempo de crise é apresentado aos mercados internacionais - como uma maneira de demonstração de antecedentes -, assim como apresento também três aplicações práticas do mercado de acções português (1997, 2008 e 2015). A sensibilidade dos resultados e do significado das oscilações log-periódicas são avaliadas. Concluo com algumas recomendações e futuras propostas de investigação.The study of critical phenomena that originated in the natural sciences and found many fields of applications has been extended in the last years to the financial economics? field, giving researchers new approaches to known problems, namely those related to risk management, forecasting, the study of bubbles and crashes, and many kind of problems involving complex systems with self-organized criticality. The theory of self-similar oscillatory time singularities is presented. A practical methodology is exposed along with some results from similar analysis from different markets around the world, as a way to get some examples of the way the ´Linear´ Log-Periodic Power Law formula works. Some context presenting the international markets at the time of crisis is given as a way of having some background, and three practical applications for the Portuguese stock market are made (1997, 2008 and 2015). The sensitivity of the results and the significance from the log-periodic oscillations is assessed. It concludes with some recommendations and future proposed research

Simplificación administrativa y calidad de atención al ciudadano en gobiernos locales de Abancay, Apurímac, 2022

La investigación se ha propuesto como objetivo principal, el determinar la relación que existe entre la simplificación administrativa y la calidad de atención al ciudadano en gobiernos locales de Abancay, Apurímac, año 2022; para su desarrollo se ha encaminado en el paradigma positivista, dentro el enfoque cuantitativo, siguiendo un diseño no experimental de corte transversal, la muestra estuvo conformada por 150 ciudadanos mayores de edad a los que se les aplicó un cuestionario de 40 ítems a través de una encuesta virtual; para el procesamiento de datos se ha utilizado el programa estadístico SPSS, a través de tablas para los datos descriptivos y la prueba no paramétrica Rho de Spearman para los resultados inferenciales. A nivel descriptivo la variable simplificación administrativa se considera que tiene un nivel regular en un 57,3% de los casos, mientras que la calidad de atención es calificada como deficiente por el 37,3% de encuestados; a nivel inferencial se ha determinado que ambas variables se relacionan en un 67,3%. Concluyendo que la simplificación administrativa tiene una relación positiva de nivel moderado con la calidad de atención al usuario en los gobiernos locales de la provincia de Abanca

Tracing the distribution of european lactase persistence genotypes along the Americas

In adulthood, the ability to digest lactose, the main sugar present in milk of mammals, is a phenotype (lactase persistence) observed in historically herder populations, mainly Northern Europeans, Eastern Africans, and Middle Eastern nomads. As the –13910∗T allele in the MCM6 gene is the most well-characterized allele responsible for the lactase persistence phenotype, the –13910C > T (rs4988235) polymorphism is commonly evaluated in lactase persistence studies. Lactase non-persistent adults may develop symptoms of lactose intolerance when consuming dairy products. In the Americas, there is no evidence of the consumption of these products until the arrival of Europeans. However, several American countries’ dietary guidelines recommend consuming dairy for adequate human nutrition and health promotion. Considering the extensive use of dairy and the complex ancestry of Pan-American admixed populations, we studied the distribution of –13910C > T lactase persistence genotypes and its flanking haplotypes of European origin in 7,428 individuals from several Pan-American admixed populations. We found that the –13910∗T allele frequency in Pan-American admixed populations is directly correlated with allele frequency of the European sources. Moreover, we did not observe any overrepresentation of European haplotypes in the –13910C > T flanking region, suggesting no selective pressure after admixture in the Americas. Finally, considering the dominant effect of the –13910∗T allele, our results indicate that Pan-American admixed populations are likely to have higher frequency of lactose intolerance, suggesting that general dietary guidelines deserve further evaluation across the continent

CULTO E POPULISMO: REFORMA DO PENSAMENTO E DESINFORMAÇÃO NAS DEMOCRACIAS

A história conta com diversos líderes que usaram de meios de dominação para se manterem como figuras importantes. Nesse ponto, apesar das democracias modernas frearem práticas que concentrem o poder na mão de poucos indivíduos, os modos de manipulação ainda possuem fatores determinantes que se assemelham a práticas destrutivas que distorcem a realidade como a existência de cultos a partir da reforma pensamento. Nesse ponto, é preciso discutir se o modus operandi de dominação do indivíduo no cultismo se relaciona com as democracias modernas nas práticas de dominação dos populistas contemporâneos

Model Residual Stress by Finite Element Method

This paper presents an original model developed by finite element method to simulate the behavior of the material to the method “Blind Hole Drilling”, to determine the residual stress. Modeling of this method is possible through the use of the “Birth and Death” which have some elements of ANSYS library. After obtaining the analysis of movements, appropriate loads, a node located from the center hole at a radius calculated. In this way it is easier to estimate the stresses and deformations of a piece. Several measurements are made and based on this model is given in ANSYS. In this way we can have a map of tensions and deformations in a materia

Comparison of 10-year overall survival between patients with G1 and G2 grade Ta bladder tumors

To compare long-term overall survival (OS) in patients with G1 and G2 grade Ta bladder cancer after transurethral resection of bladder tumors (TURBTs). Secondary aim was to investigate clinical and pathologic prognostic factors for OS of Ta patients, except G3/high grade (HG). A total of 243 patients, retrospectively selected, with Ta nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) underwent TURBT between January 2006 and December 2008 (median follow-up 109 months). Inclusion criteria were: Ta at first manifestation, G1 or G2 grade with no associated carcinoma in situ (CIS). Seventy-nine patients were excluded due to concomitant CIS (1), G3/HG tumors (47), and lost to follow-up (31). Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethical Committee of the Mures County Hospital. Statistical analysis was performed using STATA 11.0. Following inclusion criteria, 164 patients with primary G1 or G2 Ta tumors, were enrolled. Recurrence was observed in 26 (15.8%) and progression in 5 (3%) patients. Ten-year survival in G1 patients was 67.8% (CI 54.3-78.1) and in G2 patients 59% (CI 49-67.3) (P=.31). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis underlined that advanced age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10) and no Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) treatment (HR 0.24 and 0.29) were independent predictors for death at 10 years after diagnosis. Long-term analysis confirms that patients with well differentiated (G1) and moderately well differentiated (G2) Ta tumors have similar OS. A longer OS was even reported in those who underwent BCG adjuvant therapy

Development of a Mobile Open-Circuit Respiration Head Hood System for Measuring Gas Exchange in Camelids in the Andean Plateau

[EN] Peru has the largest inventory of alpacas worldwide. Despite their importance as a source of net income for rural communities living at the Andean Plateau, data on energy requirements and methane (CH4) emissions for alpacas are particularly lacking. In 2019, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; 2006, and Refinement 2019) outlined methods for estimating CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation and no methane (CH4) conversion factors were reported for camelids. IPCC has since updated its guidelines for estimating CH4 emissions from the enteric fermentation of livestock at a national scale. For greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory purposes, conversion factors were developed for ruminants but not for domestic South American camelids (SAC), with this category including alpacas. A mobile open-circuit respirometry system (head hood) for the rapid determination of CH4 and CO2 production, O2 consumption, and thereafter, heat production (HP) for camelids was built and validated. In addition, an experimental test with eight alpacas was conducted for validation purposes. The average HP measured by indirect calorimetry (respiratory quotient (RQ) method) was close to the average HP determined from the carbon-nitrogen balance (CN method); 402 kJ/kg BW0.75 and 398 kJ/kg BW0.75, respectively. Fasting HP was determined by the RQ method and 250 kJ/kg BW0.75 was obtained. The metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance (MEm) was calculated to be 323 kJ/kg BW0.75 with an efficiency of energy utilization of 77%. When intake was adjusted to zero energy retention by linear regression, the MEm requirement increased to 369 kJ/kg BW0.75 and the efficiency decreased up to 68%. The CH4 conversion factor (Ym) was 5.5% on average. Further research is required to gain a better understanding of the energy requirements and CH4 emissions of alpacas in conditions of the Andean Plateau and to quantify them with greater accuracy.This research was funded by the Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco University through the Yachayninchis Wiñarinanpaq program and the Project Desarrollo y validación de metodologías de evaluación de la actividad metabólica (utilización energética y proteica) y la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero en alpacas , a Framework Agreement between the UNSAAC and the Peruvian funding bodies CONCYTEC and FONDECYT, with the collaboration of the project: 011-2020-FONDECYT-BM-INC-INV.Rios Rado, WM.; Chipa Guillen, PK.; Huamán Borda, D.; Velez Marroquin, V.; Gere, JI.; Antezana Julián, WO.; Fernández Martínez, CJ. (2023). Development of a Mobile Open-Circuit Respiration Head Hood System for Measuring Gas Exchange in Camelids in the Andean Plateau. Animals. 13(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/ani1306101113

Strong positive selection biases identity-by-descent-based inferences of recent demography and population structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Funding Information: We would like to thank the participants in studies contributing clinical samples from which the parasite WGS data were generated, as well as the clinical investigators at the Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences who conducted the studies contributing parasite isolates to our in-house data set. This publication uses data from the MalariaGEN Consortium and Plasmodium falciparum Community Project as described in “An open data set of Plasmodium falciparum genome variation in 7000 worldwide samples. MalariaGEN et al., Wellcome Open Research 2021642 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16168.1.” This work was supported by NIH 1R01AI145852 granted to ST-H and TDO by the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024.Malaria genomic surveillance often estimates parasite genetic relatedness using metrics such as Identity-By-Decent (IBD), yet strong positive selection stemming from antimalarial drug resistance or other interventions may bias IBD-based estimates. In this study, we use simulations, a true IBD inference algorithm, and empirical data sets from different malaria transmission settings to investigate the extent of this bias and explore potential correction strategies. We analyze whole genome sequence data generated from 640 new and 3089 publicly available Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates. We demonstrate that positive selection distorts IBD distributions, leading to underestimated effective population size and blurred population structure. Additionally, we discover that the removal of IBD peak regions partially restores the accuracy of IBD-based inferences, with this effect contingent on the population’s background genetic relatedness and extent of inbreeding. Consequently, we advocate for selection correction for parasite populations undergoing strong, recent positive selection, particularly in high malaria transmission settings.publishersversionpublishe

Theory of magnetoresistance in films of dilute magnetic alloys

Earlier a magnetic anisotropy for magnetic impurities nearby the surface of non-magnetic host was proposed in order to explain the size dependence of the Kondo effect in dilute magnetic alloys. Recently Giordano has measured the magnetoresistance of dilute Au(Fe) films for different thicknesses well above the Kondo temperature $T_K$. In this way he verified the existence of that anisotropy even for such a case where the Kondo effect is not dominating. For detailed comparison of that suggestion with experiments, the magnetic field dependence of the magnetoresistance is calculated in the lowest approximation, thus in the second order of the exchange coupling. The strength of the anisotropy is very close to earlier estimates deduced from the size dependence of the Kondo resistivity amplitude.Comment: (11 pages, 8 figures, essential changes compared to the old version