Detection of sea-breeze events around London using a fuzzy-logic algorithm

We present an algorithm for detecting sea breezes based on fuzzy logic, using changes in variables commonly measured at meteorological stations. The method is applied to one year’s worth of UK Met Office data (2012) measured at several stations around London, UK. Results indicate about a dozen potential events over the year, when matched against corresponding detections at a coastal reference site (Gravesend). In some cases the time lags between corresponding events detected at different stations can be used to characterise the average propagation speed of the sea-breeze front. Advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed

Implications of climate change for expanding cities worldwide

This paper analyses the trends of the changing environmental effects within growing megacities as their diameters exceed 50–100 km and their populations rise beyond 30 million people. The authors consider how these effects are influenced by climate change, to which urban areas themselves contribute, caused by their increasing greenhouse gas emissions associated with rapidly expanding energy use. Other environmental and social factors are assessed, quantitatively and qualitatively, using detailed modelling of urban mesoscale meteorology, which shows how these factors can lead to large conurbations becoming more vulnerable to climatic and environmental hazards. The paper discusses the likely changes in meteorological and hydrological hazards in urban areas, both as the climate changes and the sizes of urban areas grow. Examples are given of how these risks are being reduced through innovations in warning and response systems, planning and infrastructure design, which should include refuges against extreme natural disasters. Policies are shown to be more effective when they are integrated and based on substantial community involvement. Some conclusions are drawn regarding how policies for the natural and artificial environment and for reducing many kinds of climate and hazard risk are related to future designs and planning of infrastructure and open spaces

Methods to estimate acclimatization to urban heat island effects on heat- and cold-related mortality

Background: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighborhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect but have not identified degrees of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cool and hot areas, which we call acclimatization to the UHI. Objectives: We developed methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomalies and applied these methods to London, UK. Methods: Case–crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993–2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modeled air temperature at a 1-km grid resolution. We estimated how UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on cold and hot days for London overall and displaced a fixed-shape temperature-mortality function (“shifted spline” model). We also compared the observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI. Results: The relative risk of death on hot versus normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1°C UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI: 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with the expected value of 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) versus 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) (actual versus expected under no acclimatization, respectively). Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, the splines shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but did not exclude acclimatization. Conclusions: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHIs. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat–related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold–related mortality

Distributed urban drag parameterization for sub‐kilometre scale numerical weather prediction

A recently developed, height-distributed urban drag parameterization is tested with the London Model, a sub-kilometre resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model over Greater London. The distributed drag parameterization requires vertical morphology profiles in form of height-distributed frontal area functions, which capture the full extent and variability of building heights. London’s morphology profiles are calculated and parameterised by an exponential distribution with the ratio of maximum to mean building height as parameter. A case study evaluates the differences between the new distributed drag scheme and the current London Model set-up using the MORUSES urban land-surface model. The new drag parameterization shows increased horizontal spatial variability in total surface stress, identifying densely built-up areas, high-rise building clusters, parks and the river. Effects on the wind speed in the lower levels include a lesser gradient and more heterogeneous wind profiles, extended wakes downwind of the city centre, and vertically growing perturbations that suggest the formation of internal boundary layers. The surface sensible heat fluxes are under-predicted, which is attributed to difficulties coupling the distributed momentum exchange with the surface-based heat exchange

Urban signals in high-resolution weather and climate simulations: role of urban land-surface characterisation

Two urban schemes within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are evaluated offline against multi-year flux observations in the densely built-up city centre of London and in suburban Swindon (UK): (i) the 1-tile slab model, used in climate simulations, (ii) the 2-tile canopy model MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme), used for numerical weather pre- diction over the UK. Offline, both models perform better at the suburban site, where differences between the urban schemes are less pronounced due to larger vegetation fractions. At both sites, the outgoing short- and longwave radiation is more accurately represented than the turbulent heat fluxes. The seasonal varia- tions of model skill are large in London, where the sensible heat flux in autumn and winter is strongly under-predicted if the large city-centre magnitudes of anthro- pogenic heat emissions are not represented. The delayed timing of the sensible heat flux in the 1-tile model in London results in large negative bias in the morning. The partitioning of the urban surface into canyon and roof in MORUSES improves this as the roof-tile is modelled with a very low thermal inertia, but phase and amplitude of the gridbox-averaged flux critically depend on accurate knowledge of the plan-area fractions of streets and buildings. Not representing non-urban land- cover (e.g. vegetation, inland water) in London results in severely under-predicted latent heat fluxes. Control runs demonstrate that the skill of both models can be greatly improved by providing accurate land-cover and morphology information and using representative anthropogenic heat emissions, which is essential if the model output is intended to inform integrated urban services

U.K. climate projections: Summer daytime and nighttime urban heat island changes in England’s major cities

In the United Kingdom, where 90% of residents are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, projecting changes in urban heat islands (UHIs) is essential to municipal adaptation. Increased summer temperatures are linked to increased mortality. Using the new regional U.K. Climate Projections, UKCP18-regional, we estimate the 1981–2079 trends in summer urban and rural near-surface air temperatures and in UHI intensities during day and at night in the 10 most populous built-up areas in England. Summer temperatures increase by 0.45°–0.81°C per decade under RCP8.5, depending on the time of day and location. Nighttime temperatures increase more in urban than rural areas, enhancing the nighttime UHI by 0.01°–0.05°C per decade in all cities. When these upward UHI signals emerge from 2008–18 variability, positive summer nighttime UHI intensities of up to 1.8°C are projected in most cities. However, we can prevent most of these upward nighttime UHI signals from emerging by stabilizing climate to the Paris Agreement target of 2°C above preindustrial levels. In contrast, daytime UHI intensities decrease in nine cities, at rates between −0.004° and −0.05°C per decade, indicating a trend toward a reduced daytime UHI effect. These changes reflect different feedbacks over urban and rural areas and are specific to UKCP18-regional. Future research is important to better understand the drivers of these UHI intensity changes

Developing a research strategy to better understand, observe, and simulate urban atmospheric processes at kilometer to subkilometer scales

A Met Office/Natural Environment Research Council Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme workshop brought together 50 key international scientists from the UK and international community to formulate the key requirements for an Urban Meteorological Research strategy. The workshop was jointly organised by University of Reading and the Met Office

Joint modelling of obstacle induced and mesoscale changes: current limits and challenges

Obstacles considerably influence boundary layer processes. Their influences have been included in mesoscale models (MeM) for a long time. Methods used to parameterise obstacle effects in a MeM are summarised in this paper using results of the mesoscale model METRAS as examples. Besides the parameterisation of obstacle influences it is also possible to use a joint modelling approach to describe obstacle induced and mesoscale changes. Three different methods may be used for joint modelling approaches: The first method is a time-slice approach, where steady basic state profiles are used in an obstacle resolving microscale model (MiM, example model MITRAS) and diurnal cycles are derived by joining steady-state MITRAS results. The second joint modelling approach is one-way nesting, where the MeM results are used to initialise the MiM and to drive the boundary values of the MiM dependent on time. The third joint modelling approach is to apply multi-scale models or two-way nesting approaches, which include feedbacks from the MiM to the MeM. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and remaining problems with joint Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes modelling approaches are summarised in the paper

Distributed urban drag parametrization for sub‐kilometre scale numerical weather prediction

A recently developed, height-distributed urban drag parametrization is tested with the London Model, a sub-kilometre resolution version of the Met Office Unified Model over Greater London. The distributed-drag parametrization requires vertical morphology profiles in the form of height-distributed frontal-area functions, which capture the full extent and variability of building heights. London’s morphology profiles are calculated and parametrized by an exponential distribution with the ratio of maximum to mean building height as the parameter. A case study evaluates the differences between the new distributed-drag scheme and the current London Model setup using the MORUSES urban land-surface model. The new drag parametrization shows increased horizontal spatial variability in total surface stress, identifying densely built-up areas, high-rise building clusters, parks, and the river. Effects on the wind speed in the lower levels include a lesser gradient and more heterogeneous wind profiles, extended wakes downwind of the city centre, and vertically growing perturbations that suggest the formation of internal boundary layers. The surface sensible heat fluxes are underpredicted, which is attributed to difficulties coupling the distributed momentum exchange with the surface-based heat exchange.ISSN:0035-9009ISSN:1477-870