49 research outputs found
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Anthropogenic heat flux: advisable spatial resolutions when input data are scarce
Anthropogenic heat flux (QF) may be significant in cities, especially under low solar irradiance and at night. It is of interest to many practitioners including meteorologists, city planners and climatologists. QF estimates at fine temporal and spatial resolution can be derived from models that use varying amounts of empirical data. This study compares simple and detailed models in a European megacity (London) at 500 m spatial resolution. The simple model (LQF) uses spatially resolved population data and national energy statistics. The detailed model (GQF) additionally uses local energy, road network and workday population data. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) and bias are used to rate the skill with which the simple model reproduces the spatial patterns and magnitudes of QF, and its sub-components, from the detailed model. LQF skill was consistently good across 90% of the city, away from the centre and major roads. The remaining 10% contained elevated emissions and B hot spots ^ representing 30 – 40% of the total city-wide energy. This structure was lost because it requires workday population, spatially resolved building energy consumption and/or road network data. Daily total building and traffic energy consumption estimates from national data were within ± 40% of local values. Progressively coarser spatial resolutions to 5 km improved skill for total Q F , but important features (hot spots, transport network) were lost at all resolutions when residential population controlled spatial variations. The results
demonstrate that simple QF models should be applied with conservative spatial resolution in cities that, like London, exhibit time-varying energy use patterns
The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First Results from Phase 1
A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the
important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated. To date, no com-
parison of these models has been conducted; in contrast, models for natural surfaces have been compared
extensively as part of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes. Here, the
methods and first results from an extensive international comparison of 33 models are presented. The aim of
the comparison overall is to understand the complexity required to model energy and water exchanges in
urban areas. The degree of complexity included in the models is outlined and impacts on model performance
are discussed. During the comparison there have been significant developments in the models with resulting
improvements in performance (root-mean-square error falling by up to two-thirds). Evaluation is based on a
dataset containing net all-wave radiation, sensible heat, and latent heat flux observations for an industrial area in
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The aim of the comparison is twofold: to identify those modeling ap-
proaches that minimize the errors in the simulated fluxes of the urban energy balance and to determine the
degree of model complexity required for accurate simulations. There is evidence that some classes of models
perform better for individual fluxes but no model performs best or worst for all fluxes. In general, the simpler
models perform as well as the more complex models based on all statistical measures. Generally the schemes
have best overall capability to model net all-wave radiation and least capability to model latent heat flux
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Urban signals in high-resolution weather and climate simulations: role of urban land-surface characterisation
Two urban schemes within the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator
(JULES) are evaluated offline against multi-year flux observations in the densely
built-up city centre of London and in suburban Swindon (UK): (i) the 1-tile slab
model, used in climate simulations, (ii) the 2-tile canopy model MORUSES (Met
Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme), used for numerical weather pre-
diction over the UK. Offline, both models perform better at the suburban site,
where differences between the urban schemes are less pronounced due to larger
vegetation fractions. At both sites, the outgoing short- and longwave radiation is
more accurately represented than the turbulent heat fluxes. The seasonal varia-
tions of model skill are large in London, where the sensible heat flux in autumn and
winter is strongly under-predicted if the large city-centre magnitudes of anthro-
pogenic heat emissions are not represented. The delayed timing of the sensible heat flux in the 1-tile model in London results in large negative bias in the morning.
The partitioning of the urban surface into canyon and roof in MORUSES improves
this as the roof-tile is modelled with a very low thermal inertia, but phase and
amplitude of the gridbox-averaged flux critically depend on accurate knowledge of
the plan-area fractions of streets and buildings. Not representing non-urban land-
cover (e.g. vegetation, inland water) in London results in severely under-predicted
latent heat fluxes. Control runs demonstrate that the skill of both models can be
greatly improved by providing accurate land-cover and morphology information
and using representative anthropogenic heat emissions, which is essential if the
model output is intended to inform integrated urban services
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Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison
Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making
Mitigating the impact of Bats in historic churches: The response of Natterer's Bats Myotis nattereri to artificial roosts and deterrence
© 2016 Zeale et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Bats frequently roost in historic churches, and these colonies are of considerable conservation value. Inside churches, bat droppings and urine can cause damage to the historic fabric of the building and to items of cultural significance. In extreme cases, large quantities of droppings can restrict the use of a church for worship and/or other community functions. In the United Kingdom, bats and their roosts are protected by law, and striking a balance between conserving the natural and cultural heritage can be a significant challenge. We investigated mitigation strategies that could be employed in churches and other historic buildings to alleviate problems caused by bats without adversely affecting their welfare or conservation status. We used a combination of artificial roost provision and deterrence at churches in Norfolk, England, where significant maternity colonies of Natterer's bats Myotis nattereri damage church features. Radio-tracking data and population modelling showed that excluding M. nattereri from churches is likely to have a negative impact on their welfare and conservation status, but that judicious use of deterrents, especially high intensity ultrasound, can mitigate problems caused by bats. We show that deterrence can be used to move bats humanely from specific roosting sites within a church and limit the spread of droppings and urine so that problems to congregations and damage to cultural heritage can be much reduced. In addition, construction of bespoke roost spaces within churches can allow bats to continue to roost within the fabric of the building without flying in the church interior. We highlight that deterrence has the potential to cause serious harm toM. nattereri populations if not used judiciously, and so the effects of deterrents will need careful monitoring, and their use needs strict regulation
Short-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and daily mortality in London, UK.
Epidemiological studies have linked daily concentrations of urban air pollution to mortality, but few have investigated specific traffic sources that can inform abatement policies. We assembled a database of >100 daily, measured and modelled pollutant concentrations characterizing air pollution in London between 2011 and 2012. Based on the analyses of temporal patterns and correlations between the metrics, knowledge of local emission sources and reference to the existing literature, we selected, a priori, markers of traffic pollution: oxides of nitrogen (general traffic); elemental and black carbon (EC/BC) (diesel exhaust); carbon monoxide (petrol exhaust); copper (tyre), zinc (brake) and aluminium (mineral dust). Poisson regression accounting for seasonality and meteorology was used to estimate the percentage change in risk of death associated with an interquartile increment of each pollutant. Associations were generally small with confidence intervals that spanned 0% and tended to be negative for cardiovascular mortality and positive for respiratory mortality. The strongest positive associations were for EC and BC adjusted for particle mass and respiratory mortality, 2.66% (95% confidence interval: 0.11, 5.28) and 2.72% (0.09, 5.42) per 0.8 and 1.0 μg/m(3), respectively. These associations were robust to adjustment for other traffic metrics and regional pollutants, suggesting a degree of specificity with respiratory mortality and diesel exhaust containing EC/BC
Photo-tautomerization of acetaldehyde as a photochemical source of formic acid in the troposphere
Organic acids play a key role in the troposphere, contributing to atmospheric aqueous-phase chemistry, aerosol formation, and precipitation acidity. Atmospheric models currently account for less than half the observed, globally averaged formic acid loading. Here we report that acetaldehyde photo-tautomerizes to vinyl alcohol under atmospherically relevant pressures of nitrogen, in the actinic wavelength range, λ = 300–330 nm, with measured quantum yields of 2–25%. Recent theoretical kinetics studies show hydroxyl-initiated oxidation of vinyl alcohol produces formic acid. Adding these pathways to an atmospheric chemistry box model (Master Chemical Mechanism) demonstrates increased formic acid concentrations by a factor of ~1.7 in the polluted troposphere and a factor of ~3 under pristine conditions. Incorporating this mechanism into the GEOS-Chem 3D global chemical transport model reveals an estimated 7% contribution to worldwide formic acid production, with up to 60% of the total modeled formic acid production over oceans arising from photo-tautomerization
Measurement of NOx fluxes from a tall tower in central London, UK and comparison with emissions inventories
Direct measurements of NOx concentration and flux were made from a tall tower in central London, UK as part of the Clean Air for London (ClearfLo) project. Fast time resolution (10 Hz) NO and NO2 concentrations were measured and combined with fast vertical wind measurements to provide top-down flux estimates using the eddy covariance technique. Measured NOx fluxes were usually positive and ranged from close to zero at night to 2000–8000 ng m–2 s–1 during the day. Peak fluxes were usually observed in the morning, coincident with the maximum traffic flow. Measurements of the NOx flux have been scaled and compared to the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) estimate of NOx emission for the measurement footprint. The measurements are on average 80% higher than the NAEI emission inventory for all of London. Observations made in westerly airflow (from parts of London where traffic is a smaller fraction of the NOx source) showed a better agreement on average with the inventory. The observations suggest that the emissions inventory is poorest at estimating NOx when traffic is the dominant source, in this case from an easterly direction from the BT Tower. Agreement between the measurements and the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI) are better, due to the more explicit treatment of traffic flow by this more detailed inventory. The flux observations support previous tailpipe observations of higher NOx emitted from the London vehicle diesel fleet than is represented in the NAEI or predicted for several EURO emission control technologies. Higher-than-anticipated vehicle NOx is likely responsible for the significant discrepancies that exist in London between observed NOx and long-term NOx projections
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Representativity of in situ precipitation measurements - a case study for the LITFASS area in North-Eastern Germany
In situ precipitation measurements can extremely differ in space and time. Taking into account the limited
spatial–temporal representativity and the uncertainty of a single station is important for validating
mesoscale numerical model results as well as for interpreting remote sensing data. In situ precipitation
data from a high resolution network in North-Eastern Germany are analysed to determine their temporal
and spatial representativity. For the dry year 2003 precipitation amounts were available with 10 min resolution
from 14 rain gauges distributed in an area of 25 km 25 km around the Meteorological Observatory
Lindenberg (Richard-Aßmann Observatory). Our analysis reveals that short-term (up to 6 h)
precipitation events dominate (94% of all events) and that the distribution is skewed with a high frequency
of very low precipitation amounts. Long-lasting precipitation events are rare (6% of all precipitation
events), but account for nearly 50% of the annual precipitation. The spatial representativity of a
single-site measurement increases slightly for longer measurement intervals and the variability
decreases. Hourly precipitation amounts are representative for an area of 11 km 11 km. Daily precipitation
amounts appear to be reliable with an uncertainty factor of 3.3 for an area of 25 km 25 km, and
weekly and monthly precipitation amounts have uncertainties of a factor of 2 and 1.4 when compared to
25 km 25 km mean values