Real-Time Loss Estimation as an Emergency Response Decision Support System: The Early Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT)

At the time of the Northridge earthquake, a number of new technologies, including real-time availability of earthquake source data, improved loss estimation techniques, Geographic Information Systems and various satellite-based monitoring systems, were either available or under consideration as emergency management resources. The potential benefits from these technologies for earthquake hazard mitigation, response and recovery, however, were largely conceptual. One of the major lessons learned from the January 17, 1994 earthquake was that these technologies could confer significant advantages in understanding and managing a major disaster, and that their integration would contribute a significant additional increment of utility. In the two and half years since the Northridge earthquake, important strides have been taken toward the integration of relatively discrete technologies in a system which provides real-time estimates of regional damage, losses and population impacts. This paper will describe the development, operation and application of the first real-time loss estimation system to be utilized by an emergency services organization

Direct Economic Losses in the Northridge Earthquake: A Three-Year Post-Event Perspective

The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the full cost of this event, it is quite possible that total losses, excluding indirect effects, could reach as much as $40 billion. This would make the Northridge earthquake less severe than the Kobe event, which occurred exactly one year after the Northridge earthquake, but adds a bit of realism that a Kobe-type disaster is possible in the U.S. This paper attempts to put into perspective the direct capital losses associated with the Northridge earthquake. In doing so, we introduce the concept of hidden and/or undocumented costs that could double current estimates. In addition, we present the notion that a final estimate of loss may be impossible to achieve, although costs do begin to level off two years after the earthquake. Finally, we attempt to reconcile apparent differences between loss totals for two databases tracking similar information

The use of biomedicine, complementary and alternative medicine, and ethnomedicine for the treatment of epilepsy among people of South Asian origin in the UK

Studies have shown that a significant proportion of people with epilepsy use complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). CAM use is known to vary between different ethnic groups and cultural contexts; however, little attention has been devoted to inter-ethnic differences within the UK population. We studied the use of biomedicine, complementary and alternative medicine, and ethnomedicine in a sample of people with epilepsy of South Asian origin living in the north of England. Interviews were conducted with 30 people of South Asian origin and 16 carers drawn from a sampling frame of patients over 18 years old with epilepsy, compiled from epilepsy registers and hospital databases. All interviews were tape-recorded, translated if required and transcribed. A framework approach was adopted to analyse the data. All those interviewed were taking conventional anti-epileptic drugs. Most had also sought help from traditional South Asian practitioners, but only two people had tried conventional CAM. Decisions to consult a traditional healer were taken by families rather than by individuals with epilepsy. Those who made the decision to consult a traditional healer were usually older family members and their motivations and perceptions of safety and efficacy often differed from those of the recipients of the treatment. No-one had discussed the use of traditional therapies with their doctor. The patterns observed in the UK mirrored those reported among people with epilepsy in India and Pakistan. The health care-seeking behaviour of study participants, although mainly confined within the ethnomedicine sector, shared much in common with that of people who use global CAM. The appeal of traditional therapies lay in their religious and moral legitimacy within the South Asian community, especially to the older generation who were disproportionately influential in the determination of treatment choices. As a second generation made up of people of Pakistani origin born in the UK reach the age when they are the influential decision makers in their families, resort to traditional therapies may decline. People had long experience of navigating plural systems of health care and avoided potential conflict by maintaining strict separation between different sectors. Health care practitioners need to approach these issues with sensitivity and to regard traditional healers as potential allies, rather than competitors or quacks

Seismic interpretation of pelagic sedimentation regimes in the 18–53 Ma eastern equatorial Pacific : basin-scale sedimentation and infilling of abyssal valleys

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 12 (2011): Q03004, doi:10.1029/2010GC003347.Understanding how pelagic sediment has been eroded, transported, and deposited is critical to evaluating pelagic sediment records for paleoceanography. We use digital seismic reflection data from an Integrated Ocean Drilling Program site survey (AMAT03) to investigate pelagic sedimentation across the eastern-central equatorial Pacific, which represents the first comprehensive record published covering the 18–53 Ma eastern equatorial Pacific. Our goals are to quantify (1) basin-hill-scale primary deposition regimes and (2) the extent to which seafloor topography has been subdued by abyssal valley-filling sediments. The eastern Pacific seafloor consists of a series of abyssal hills and basins, with minor late stage faulting in the basement. Ocean crust rarely outcrops at the seafloor away from the rise crest; both hills and basins are sediment covered. The carbonate compensation depth is identified at 4440 m by the appearance of acoustically transparent clay intervals in the seismic data. Overall, we recognized three different sedimentation regimes: depositional (high sedimentation rate), transitional, and minimal sedimentation (low sedimentation rate) regimes. In all areas, the sedimented seafloor mimics the underlying basement topography, although the degree to which topography becomes subdued varies. Depositional regimes result in symmetric sedimentation within basins and subdued topography, whereas minimal sedimentation regimes have more asymmetric distribution of sediments within topographic lows and higher seafloor relief. Regardless of sedimentation regime, enhanced sediment deposition occurs within basins. However, we observe that basin infill is rarely more than twice as thick as sediment cover over abyssal hills. If this variation is due to sediment focusing, the focusing factor in the basins, as measured by 230Th, is no more than a factor of ∼1.3 of the total vertical particulate rain.This research is supported by NSF grants OCE‐07253011 and OCE‐0851056 (M. Lyle and M. Tominaga) and NERC grant NE/C508985/2 (N. C. Mitchell)

Quantifying system disturbance and recovery from historical mining-derived metal contamination at Brotherswater, northwest England

The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-016-9907-1Metal ore extraction in historical times has left a legacy of severe contamination in aquatic ecosystems around the world. In the UK, there are ongoing nationwide surveys of present-day pollution discharged from abandoned mines but few assessments of the magnitude of contamination and impacts that arose during historical metal mining have been made. We report one of the first multi-centennial records of lead (Pb), zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) fluxes into a lake (Brotherswater, northwest England) from point-sources in its catchment (Hartsop Hall Mine and Hogget Gill processing plant) and calculate basin-scale inventories of those metals. The pre-mining baseline for metal contamination has been established using sediment cores spanning the past 1,500 years and contemporary material obtained through sediment trapping. These data enabled the impact of 250 years of local, small-scale mining (1696 – 1942) to be quantified and an assessment of the trajectory towards system recovery to be made. The geochemical stratigraphy displayed in twelve sediment cores show strong correspondence to the documented history of metal mining and processing in the catchment. The initial onset in 1696 was detected, peak Pb concentrations (>10,000 µg g-1) and flux (39.4 g m-2 y-1) corresponded to the most intensive mining episode (1863-1871) and 20th century technological enhancements were reflected as a more muted sedimentary imprint. After careful evaluation, we used these markers to augment a Bayesian age-depth model of the independent geochronology obtained using radioisotope dating (14C, 210Pb, 137Cs and 241Am). Total inventories of Pb, Zn and Cu for the lake basin during the period of active mining were 15,415 kg, 5,897 kg and 363 kg, respectively. The post-mining trajectories for Pb and Zn project a return to pre-mining levels within 54-128 years for Pb and 75-187 years for Zn, although future remobilisation of metal-enriched catchment soils and floodplain sediments could perturb this recovery. We present a transferable paleolimnological approach that highlights flux-based assessments are vital to accurately establish the baseline, impact and trajectory of mining-derived contamination for a lake catchment

Two Concerns about Rational Choice: Indoctrination and Imperialism

Rational Choice Theory is often criticized to indoctrinate students in a negative, which is supported by some laboratory experiments. But do students of Rational Choice Theory really behave more selfishly? This paper presents evidence from a natural decision on voluntary donation at the University of Zurich. The analysis of the very large panel data set reaches significant different results than previous studies: Rational Choice Theory does not indoctrinate students. However, there are good other reasons to criticize Rational Choice Theory. The paper argues that ideas from other social sciences should be imported to improve the theory. Three elements are presented which lead to new and different policy conclusions

Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (2001-2006)

The module was administered as a post-election interview. The resulting data are provided along with voting, demographic, district and macro variables in a single dataset. CSES Variable List The list of variables is being provided on the CSES Website to help in understanding what content is available from CSES, and to compare the content available in each module. Themes: MICRO-LEVEL DATA: Identification and study administration variables: mode of interview; gender of interviewer; date questionnaire administered; election type; weighting factors; if multiple rounds: percent of vote selected parties received in first round; selection of head of state; direct election of head of state and process of direct election; threshold for first-round victory; selection of candidates for the final round; simple majority or absolute majority for 2nd round victory; primary electoral district of respondent; number of days the interview was conducted after the election Demography: age; gender; education; marital status; union membership; union membership of others in household; business association membership, farmers´ association membership; professional association membership; current employment status; main occupation; socio economic status; employment type - public or private; industrial sector; current employment status, occupation, socio economic status, employment type - public or private and industrial sector of spouse; household income; number of persons in household; number of children in household under the age of 18; attendance at religious services; race; ethnicity; religiosity; religious denomination; language usually spoken at home; region of residence; rural or urban residence Survey variables: political participation during the recent election campaign (persuade others, campaign activities) and frequency of political participation; contacted by candidate or party during the campaign; respondent cast a ballot at the current and the previous election; vote choice (presidential, lower house and upper house elections) at the current and the previous election; respondent cast candidate preference vote at the current election; most important issue; evaluation of governments performance concerning the most important issue and in general; satisfaction with the democratic process in the country; attitude towards selected statements: it makes a difference who is in power and who people vote for; democracy is better than any other form of government; respondent cast candidate preference vote at the previous election; judgement of the performance of the party the respondent voted for in the previous election; judgement how well voters´ views are represented in elections; party and leader that represent respondent´s view best; form of questionnaire (long or short); party identification; intensity of party identification; sympathy scale for selected parties; assessment of parties and political leaders on a left-right-scale; political participating during the last 5 years: contacted a politician or government, protest or demonstration, work with others who share the same concern; respect for individual freedom and human rights; assessment how much corruption is widespread in the country; self-placement on a left-right-scale; political information items DISTRICT-LEVEL DATA: number of seats contested in electoral district, number of candidates, number of party lists, percent vote of different parties, official voter turnout in electoral district MACRO-LEVEL DATA: percent of popular vote received by parties in current (lower house/upper house) legislative election; percent of seats in lower house received by parties in current lower house/upper house election; percentage of official voter turnout; number of portfolios held by each party in cabinet, prior to and after the most recent election; year of party foundation; ideological family the parties are closest to; European parliament political group and international organization the parties belong to; significant parties not represented before and after the election; left-right position of parties; general concensus on these left-right placements among informed observers in the country; alternative dimension placements; consensus on the alternative dimension placements; most salient factors in the election; consensus on the salience ranking; electoral alliances permitted during the election campaign; name of alliance and participant parties; number of elected legislative chambers; for lower house and upper house was asked: number of electoral segments; number of primary districts; number of seats; district magnitude (number of members elected from each district); number of secondary and tertiary electoral districts; compulsory voting; votes cast; voting procedure; transferable votes; cumulated votes if more than one can be cast; party threshold; used electoral formula; party lists close, open, or flexible; parties can run joint lists; possibility of apparentement; multi-party endorsements; ally party support; requirements for joint party lists; types of apparentement agreements; multi-party endorsements on ballot; head of state (regime type); year of presidential election (before or after this legislative election); process if indirect election; if by electoral college: selection of electors, deliberates, and voting procedure; if by legislature: chambers of the legislature, voting procedure; power of the head of state (introduce legislation, expedited action, package veto, partial veto, legislate by decree, emergency powers, negotiate agreements, commander of forces, introduce referenda, refer legislation to judiciary, legislative sessions); head of government (elected independently, is the head of state, selection method if not elected independently); authorities of the head of government concerning the composition of the cabinet (name ministers, nominate ministers, review ministerial nominations, dismiss ministers); authorities of the head of government concerning the policy making process (chair cabinet meetings, legislature schedules, policy alternatives, refers policy to committee, votes of confidence); methods of cabinet dismissal (head of state acting alone, by head of government alone, majority of legislature, plurality of legislature, combination); dissolution of legislature prior to regularly scheduled elections; dissolution of legislature by: head of state, head of government, majority of legislature, combination; restrictions on dissolving legislature (on the timing, as a response to action/inaction by the legislature); second chamber of the legislature (method of election, composition, exclusive legislative powers, power over the cabinet); constitutional federal structure; central power over peripher