The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Analysis of a spatial Lotka-Volterra model with a finite range predator-prey interaction

We perform an analysis of a recent spatial version of the classical Lotka-Volterra model, where a finite scale controls individuals' interaction. We study the behavior of the predator-prey dynamics in physical spaces higher than one, showing how spatial patterns can emerge for some values of the interaction range and of the diffusion parameter.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

Predators reduce extinction risk in noisy metapopulations

Background Spatial structure across fragmented landscapes can enhance regional population persistence by promoting local “rescue effects.” In small, vulnerable populations, where chance or random events between individuals may have disproportionately large effects on species interactions, such local processes are particularly important. However, existing theory often only describes the dynamics of metapopulations at regional scales, neglecting the role of multispecies population dynamics within habitat patches. Findings By coupling analysis across spatial scales we quantified the interaction between local scale population regulation, regional dispersal and noise processes in the dynamics of experimental host-parasitoid metapopulations. We find that increasing community complexity increases negative correlation between local population dynamics. A potential mechanism underpinning this finding was explored using a simple population dynamic model. Conclusions Our results suggest a paradox: parasitism, whilst clearly damaging to hosts at the individual level, reduces extinction risk at the population level

Radiation damage in the LHCb vertex locator

The LHCb Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon strip detector designed to reconstruct charged particle trajectories and vertices produced at the LHCb interaction region. During the first two years of data collection, the 84 VELO sensors have been exposed to a range of fluences up to a maximum value of approximately 45 × 1012 1 MeV neutron equivalent (1 MeV neq). At the operational sensor temperature of approximately −7 °C, the average rate of sensor current increase is 18 μA per fb−1, in excellent agreement with predictions. The silicon effective bandgap has been determined using current versus temperature scan data after irradiation, with an average value of Eg = 1.16±0.03±0.04 eV obtained. The first observation of n+-on-n sensor type inversion at the LHC has been made, occurring at a fluence of around 15 × 1012 of 1 MeV neq. The only n+-on-p sensors in use at the LHC have also been studied. With an initial fluence of approximately 3 × 1012 1 MeV neq, a decrease in the Effective Depletion Voltage (EDV) of around 25 V is observed. Following this initial decrease, the EDV increases at a comparable rate to the type inverted n+-on-n type sensors, with rates of (1.43±0.16) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq and (1.35±0.25) × 10−12 V/ 1 MeV neq measured for n+-on-p and n+-on-n type sensors, respectively. A reduction in the charge collection efficiency due to an unexpected effect involving the second metal layer readout lines is observed

Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics

Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying episodic outbreaks of infectious diseases is one of mathematical epidemiology’s major goals. Historic records are an invaluable source of information in this enterprise. Pertussis (whooping cough) is a re-emerging infection whose intermittent bouts of large multiannual epidemics interspersed between periods of smaller-amplitude cycles remain an enigma. It has been suggested that recent increases in pertussis incidence and shifts in the age-distribution of cases may be due to diminished natural immune boosting. Here we show that a model that incorporates this mechanism can account for a unique set of pre-vaccine-era data from Copenhagen. Under this model, immune boosting induces transient bursts of large amplitude outbreaks. In the face of mass vaccination, the boosting model predicts larger and more frequent outbreaks than do models with permanent or passively-waning immunity. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the mechanisms responsible for maintaining immune memory fo

Precision luminosity measurements at LHCb

Measuring cross-sections at the LHC requires the luminosity to be determined accurately at each centre-of-mass energy √s. In this paper results are reported from the luminosity calibrations carried out at the LHC interaction point 8 with the LHCb detector for √s = 2.76, 7 and 8 TeV (proton-proton collisions) and for √sNN = 5 TeV (proton-lead collisions). Both the "van der Meer scan" and "beam-gas imaging" luminosity calibration methods were employed. It is observed that the beam density profile cannot always be described by a function that is factorizable in the two transverse coordinates. The introduction of a two-dimensional description of the beams improves significantly the consistency of the results. For proton-proton interactions at √s = 8 TeV a relative precision of the luminosity calibration of 1.47% is obtained using van der Meer scans and 1.43% using beam-gas imaging, resulting in a combined precision of 1.12%. Applying the calibration to the full data set determines the luminosity with a precision of 1.16%. This represents the most precise luminosity measurement achieved so far at a bunched-beam hadron collider

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population’s capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk

Performance of the LHCb vertex locator

The Vertex Locator (VELO) is a silicon microstrip detector that surrounds the proton-proton interaction region in the LHCb experiment. The performance of the detector during the first years of its physics operation is reviewed. The system is operated in vacuum, uses a bi-phase CO2 cooling system, and the sensors are moved to 7 mm from the LHC beam for physics data taking. The performance and stability of these characteristic features of the detector are described, and details of the material budget are given. The calibration of the timing and the data processing algorithms that are implemented in FPGAs are described. The system performance is fully characterised. The sensors have a signal to noise ratio of approximately 20 and a best hit resolution of 4 μm is achieved at the optimal track angle. The typical detector occupancy for minimum bias events in standard operating conditions in 2011 is around 0.5%, and the detector has less than 1% of faulty strips. The proximity of the detector to the beam means that the inner regions of the n+-on-n sensors have undergone space-charge sign inversion due to radiation damage. The VELO performance parameters that drive the experiment's physics sensitivity are also given. The track finding efficiency of the VELO is typically above 98% and the modules have been aligned to a precision of 1 μm for translations in the plane transverse to the beam. A primary vertex resolution of 13 μm in the transverse plane and 71 μm along the beam axis is achieved for vertices with 25 tracks. An impact parameter resolution of less than 35 μm is achieved for particles with transverse momentum greater than 1 GeV/c

The incorporation of14C‐glycerol into different species of diglycerides and triglycerides in rat liver slices

The relative rates of de novo synthesis of species of diglycerides and triglycerides from14C‐glycerol were examined in rat liver slices. Diglycerides containing one or two double bonds per molecule and triglycerides containing four or more double bonds per molecule represented 70% and 60% respectively of the newly synthesized diglycerides and triglycerides. The newly synthesized triglycerides were more unsaturated than the endogenous triglycerides. Our results suggest that a nonrandom synthesis of species of diglycerides occurred followed by an almost random utilization of the various diglyceride species for the biosynthesis of triglycerides.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142207/1/lipd0411.pd

Search for CP violation in D+→K−K+π+D^{+} \to K^{-}K^{+}\pi^{+} decays

A model-independent search for direct CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay $D^+ \to K^- K^+\pi^+$ in a sample of approximately 370,000 decays is carried out. The data were collected by the LHCb experiment in 2010 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35 pb$^{-1}$. The normalized Dalitz plot distributions for $D^+$ and $D^-$ are compared using four different binning schemes that are sensitive to different manifestations of CP violation. No evidence for CP asymmetry is found.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.