Is Poverty Decentralising? Quantifying Uncertainty in the Decentralisation of Urban Poverty

In this paper we argue that the recent focus on the suburbanisation of poverty is problematic because of the ambiguities and inconsistencies in defining suburbia. To improve transparency, replicability and comparability, we suggest that research on the geographical changes to the distribution of poverty should focus on three questions: (1) How centralised is urban poverty? (2) To what extent is it decentralising? (3) Is it becoming spatially dispersed? With respect to all three questions, the issue of quantifying uncertainty has been under-researched. The main contribution of the paper is to provide a practical and robust solution to the problem of inference based on a Bayesian multivariate conditional autoregressive (CAR) model, made accessible via the R-software package CARBayes. Our approach can be applied to spatio-temporally autocorrelated data, and can estimate both levels of and change in global RCIs (relative centralisation index), local RCIs and dissimilarity indices. We illustrate our method with an application to Scotland's four largest cities. Our results show that poverty was centralised in 2011 in Glasgow, Dundee and Aberdeen. Poverty in Edinburgh, however, was decentralised: non-poor households tend to live closer to the centre than poor ones, and increasingly so. We also find evidence of statistically significant reductions in centralisation of poverty in all four cities. To test whether this change is associated with poverty becoming more dispersed, we estimate changes to evenness and local decentralisation of poverty, revealing complex patterns of change

Multi‐dimensional biodiversity hotspots and the future of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity: A case study of North American rodents

AimWe investigate geographic patterns across taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity to test for spatial (in)congruency and identify aggregate diversity hotspots in relationship to present land use and future climate. Simulating extinctions of imperilled species, we demonstrate where losses across diversity dimensions and geography are predicted.LocationNorth America.Time periodPresent day, future.Major taxa studiedRodentia.MethodsUsing geographic range maps for rodent species, we quantified spatial patterns for 11 dimensions of diversity: taxonomic (species, range weighted), ecological (body size, diet and habitat), phylogenetic (mean, variance, and nearest‐neighbour patristic distances, phylogenetic distance and genus‐to‐species ratio) and phyloendemism. We tested for correlations across dimensions and used spatial residual analyses to illustrate regions of pronounced diversity. We aggregated diversity hotspots in relationship to predictions of land‐use and climate change and recalculated metrics following extinctions of IUCN‐listed imperilled species.ResultsTopographically complex western North America hosts high diversity across multiple dimensions: phyloendemism and ecological diversity exceed predictions based on taxonomic richness, and phylogenetic variance patterns indicate steep gradients in phylogenetic turnover. An aggregate diversity hotspot emerges in the west, whereas spatial incongruence exists across diversity dimensions at the continental scale. Notably, phylogenetic metrics are uncorrelated with ecological diversity. Diversity hotspots overlap with land‐use and climate change, and extinctions predicted by IUCN status are unevenly distributed across space, phylogeny or ecological groups.Main conclusionsComparison of taxonomic, ecological and phylogenetic diversity patterns for North American rodents clearly shows the multifaceted nature of biodiversity. Testing for geographic patterns and (in)congruency across dimensions of diversity facilitates investigation into underlying ecological and evolutionary processes. The geographic scope of this analysis suggests that several explicit regional challenges face North American rodent fauna in the future. Simultaneous consideration of multi‐dimensional biodiversity allows us to assess what critical functions or evolutionary history we might lose with future extinctions and maximize the potential of our conservation efforts.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/1/geb13050.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/2/geb13050_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154236/3/geb13050-sup-0001-Supinfo1.pd

Migration distance does not predict blood parasitism in a migratory songbird

Migration can influence host–parasite dynamics in animals by increasing exposure to parasites, by reducing the energy available for immune defense, or by culling of infected individuals. These mechanisms have been demonstrated in several comparative analyses; however, few studies have investigated whether conspecific variation in migration distance may also be related to infection risk. Here, we ask whether autumn migration distance, inferred from stable hydrogen isotope analysis of summer‐grown feathers (δ 2Hf) in Europe, correlates with blood parasite prevalence and intensity of infection for willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus ) wintering in Zambia. We also investigated whether infection was correlated with individual condition (assessed via corticosterone, scaled mass index, and feather quality). We found that 43% of birds were infected with Haemoproteus palloris (lineage WW1). Using generalized linear models, we found no relationship between migration distance and either Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. There was spatial variation in breeding ground origins of infected versus noninfected birds, with infected birds originating from more northern sites than noninfected birds, but this difference translated into only slightly longer estimated migration distances (~214 km) for infected birds. We found no relationship between body condition indices and Haemoproteus infection prevalence or intensity. Our results do not support any of the proposed mechanisms for migration effects on host–parasite dynamics and cautiously suggest that other factors may be more important for determining individual susceptibility to disease in migratory bird species

Water sources and mixing in riparian wetlands revealed by tracers and geospatial analysis

Acknowledgments We thank the European Research Council (ERC) (project GA 335910 VEWA) and Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (project NE/K000268/1) for funding and the Airborne Research and Survey Facility for conducting the aerial survey. The data used are available from the authors. In addition, we would like to thank the additional support from Audrey Innes for the sample analysis and Maria Blumstock and Mike Kennedy for assisting with field work.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Oribatid mites show how climate and latitudinal gradients in organic matter can drive large-scale biodiversity patterns of soil communities

Aim: The factors determining spatial distributions and diversity of terrestrial invertebrates are typically investigated at small scales. Large‐scale studies are lacking for soil animals, which control microbial communities and represent one of the most diverse yet poorly known animal assemblages. Here, we analyzed a major group (Oribatida) to test whether belowground macroecological patterns can be predicted by climatic variables, vegetation and large‐scale variation in key soil properties. Location: We modelled the multivariate distribution of more than 100 species using biodiversity data collected across Great Britain in the framework of the Countryside Survey (http://www.countrysidesurvey.org.uk). Methods: We analyzed species‐level data from 582 samples collected across 162 hectads (10 × 10 km) covering the largest possible range of vegetation types, soil properties and climatic conditions within GB. We created the first large‐scale maps of soil animal diversity metrics at the GB scale, including novel estimates of metrics of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Using structural equation modelling, we quantified the direct and indirect effects of location (latitude, longitude), plant community structure and abiotic factors such as precipitation on species composition, richness and PD. Results: We found that variation in species composition follows a latitudinal gradient with diversity generally increasing northward. The latitudinal variation in species composition drives PD via changes in both species richness and phylogenetic distance between species. This gradient is mostly determined by latitudinal variation in precipitation and organic matter, which were very good predictors of species composition. Precipitation and organic matter were, however, relatively weak while statistically significant predictors of diversity metrics. Conclusions: Past studies have emphasized the unpredictability of species distributions and variation in species composition in hyper diverse soil animal communities. However, past studies were conducted at small scales, where stochastic factors may weaken the signal of deterministic factors. Oribatid mites in our study show for the first time that the large scale latitudinal gradients in climate and organic matter predict not only variation in species composition but also taxonomic and PD of soil animal communities

Climate and mating systems as drivers of global diversity of parental care in frogs

Aim Amphibians exhibit unusually diverse reproductive modes, including a wide array of parental care strategies. The evolutionary drivers of this diversity, however, remain unclear. Here, we investigate three major factors that might predict interspecific variation in parental care strategies: climate, intrasexual selection and social environment. We hypothesize that some forms of care evolved to cope with harsh conditions, such as dry or unpredictable habitats. We contrast this prediction with the hypothesis that parental roles have co‐evolved with the social environment and mating systems. Location Global. Major taxa studied Frogs and toads (Amphibia: Anura). Time period Extant taxa that represent c . 220 Myr of evolutionary history. Methods Using geographical and behavioural data for 971 species of frogs and toads that represent 45 anuran families, we quantified the global distribution of four forms of parenting separately for males and females: nest building, nest and/or tadpole attendance, carrying and nourishment. We used phylogenetic comparative analyses to investigate whether climate, social environment and mating systems predicted interspecific variation in parental care. Results Our results showed that climatic effects contribute to parental care diversity: in cool and humid climates the males provide offspring attendance, whereas in predictable temperatures endotrophy occurs, whereby the female provides all nutrients for the offspring until metamorphosis. In addition, we found other associations between mating systems and forms of parental care: uniparental clutch attendance by males is present in species with territorial defence, whereas cooperative nest building co‐occurs with sperm competition. The type of parental care is not associated with adult sex ratios. Main conclusions No specific form of care is associated with hostile environments; in fact, some forms of care occur in beneficial conditions, whereas others are used independently from the climate. Instead, parenting diversity has co‐evolved closely with mating systems in frogs

The geographic mosaic of herbicide resistance evolution in the common morning glory, Ipomoea purpurea: Evidence for resistance hotspots and low genetic differentiation across the landscape

Strong human‐mediated selection via herbicide application in agroecosystems has repeatedly led to the evolution of resistance in weedy plants. Although resistance can occur among separate populations of a species across the landscape, the spatial scale of resistance in many weeds is often left unexamined. We assessed the potential that resistance to the herbicide glyphosate in the agricultural weed Ipomoea purpurea has evolved independently multiple times across its North American range. We examined both adaptive and neutral genetic variations in 44 populations of I. purpurea by pairing a replicated dose–response greenhouse experiment with SSR genotyping of experimental individuals. We uncovered a mosaic pattern of resistance across the landscape, with some populations exhibiting high‐survival postherbicide and other populations showing high death. SSR genotyping revealed little evidence of isolation by distance and very little neutral genetic structure associated with geography. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis uncovered evidence for migration and admixture among populations before the widespread use of glyphosate rather than the very recent contemporary gene flow. The pattern of adaptive and neutral genetic variations indicates that resistance in this mixed‐mating weed species appears to have evolved in independent hotspots rather than through transmission of resistance alleles across the landscape.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113156/1/eva12290_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113156/2/eva12290.pd

β-diversity scaling patterns are consistent across metrics and taxa

We thank the University of St Andrews Bioinformatics Unit (Wellcome Trust ISSF grant 105621/Z/14/Z). L.H.A.was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal (POPH/FSE SFRH/BD/90469/2012), A.E.M. by the ERC BioTIME (250189) and BioCHANGE (727440), and B.J.M. by USDA Hatch grant to MAFES #1011538 and NSF ABI grant #1660000. The BioTIME database was funded by ERC AdG BioTIME (250189) and ERC PoC BioCHANGE (727440).β‐diversity (variation in community composition) is a fundamental component of biodiversity, with implications for macroecology, community ecology and conservation. However, its scaling properties are poorly understood. Here, we systematically assessed the spatial scaling of β‐diversity using 12 empirical large‐scale datasets including different taxonomic groups, by examining two conceptual types of β‐diversity and explicitly considering the turnover and nestedness components. We found highly consistent patterns across datasets. Multiple‐site β‐diversity (i.e. variation across multiple sites) scaling curves were remarkably consistent, with β‐diversity decreasing with sampled area according to a power law. For pairwise dissimilarities, the rates of increase of dissimilarity with geographic distance remained largely constant across scales, while grain size (or scale level) had a stronger effect on overall dissimilarity. In both analyses, turnover was the main contributor to β‐diversity, following total β‐diversity patterns closely, while the nestedness component was largely insensitive to scale changes. Our results highlight the importance of integrating both inter‐ and intraspecific aggregation patterns across spatial scales, which underpin substantial differences in community structure from local to regional scales.PostprintPeer reviewe

The ghosts of forests past and future : deforestation and botanical sampling in the Brazilian Amazon

The remarkable biodiversity of the Brazilian Amazon is poorly documented and threatened by deforestation. When undocumented areas become deforested, in addition to losing the fauna and flora, we lose the opportunity to know which unique species had occupied a habitat. Here we quantify such knowledge loss by calculating how much of the Brazilian Amazon has been deforested and will likely be deforested until 2050 without having its tree flora sufficiently documented. To this end, we analysed 399 147 digital specimens of nearly 6000 tree species in relation to official deforestation statistics and future deforestation scenarios. We find that by 2017, 30% of all the localities where tree specimens had been collected were mostly deforested. Some 300 000 km(2)(12%; 485 25 x 25 km grid cells) of the Brazilian Amazon had been deforested by 2017, without having a single tree specimen recorded. An additional 250 000-900 000 km(2)of severely under-collected rainforest will likely become deforested by 2050. If future tree sampling is to cover this area, sampling effort has to increase two- to six-fold. Nearly 255 000 km(2)or 7% of rainforest in the Brazilian Amazon is easily accessible but does yet but remain under-collected. Our study highlights how progressing deforestation increases the risk of losing undocumented species of a hyper-diverse tree flora.Peer reviewe

Consequences of marine barriers for genetic diversity of the coral-specialist yellowbar angelfish from the Northwestern Indian Ocean

© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Ocean circulation, geological history, geographic distance, and seascape heterogeneity play an important role in phylogeography of coral-dependent fishes. Here, we investigate potential genetic population structure within the yellowbar angelfish (Pomacanthus maculosus) across the Northwestern Indian Ocean (NIO). We then discuss our results with respect to the above abiotic features in order to understand the contemporary distribution of genetic diversity of the species. To do so, restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) was utilized to carry out population genetic analyses on P. maculosus sampled throughout the species’ distributional range. First, genetic data were correlated to geographic and environmental distances, and tested for isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-environment, respectively, by applying the Mantel test. Secondly, we used distance-based and model-based methods for clustering genetic data. Our results suggest the presence of two putative barriers to dispersal; one off the southern coast of the Arabian Peninsula and the other off northern Somalia, which together create three genetic subdivisions of P. maculosus within the NIO. Around the Arabian Peninsula, one genetic cluster was associated with the Red Sea and the adjacent Gulf of Aden in the west, and another cluster was associated with the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman in the east. Individuals sampled in Kenya represented a third genetic cluster. The geographic locations of genetic discontinuities observed between genetic subdivisions coincide with the presence of substantial upwelling systems, as well as habitat discontinuity. Our findings shed light on the origin and maintenance of genetic patterns in a common coral reef fish inhabiting the NIO, and reinforce the hypothesis that the evolution of marine fish species in this region has likely been shaped by multiple vicariance events