Accurate Noise Projection for Reduced Stochastic Epidemic Models

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise onto the center manifold. Therefore, the solution of this reduced stochastic dynamical system yields excellent agreement, both in amplitude and phase, with the solution of the original stochastic system for a temporal scale that is orders of magnitude longer than the typical relaxation time. This new method allows for improved time series prediction of the number of infectious cases when modeling the spread of disease in a population. Numerical solutions of the fluctuations of the SEIR model are considered in the infinite population limit using a Langevin equation approach, as well as in a finite population simulated as a Markov process.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures, new title, Final revision to appear in Chao

Switching barrier scaling near bifurcation points for non-Gaussian noise

We study noise-induced switching of a system close to bifurcation parameter values where the number of stable states changes. For non-Gaussian noise, the switching exponent, which gives the logarithm of the switching rate, displays a non-power-law dependence on the distance to the bifurcation point. This dependence is found for Poisson noise. Even weak additional Gaussian noise dominates switching sufficiently close to the bifurcation point, leading to a crossover in the behavior of the switching exponent

Comparative analysis of NOAA REFM and SNB 3 GEO tools for the forecast of the fluxes of high-energy electrons at GEO

Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real-time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB3GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB3GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field Bz observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB3GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB3GEO forecast

Nonlinear interactions in the thalamocortical loop in essential tremor: A model-based frequency domain analysis.

There is increasing evidence to suggest that essential tremor has a central origin. Different structures appear to be part of the central tremorogenic network, including the motor cortex, the thalamus and the cerebellum. Some studies using electroencephalogram (EEG) and magnetoencephalography (MEG) show linear association in the tremor frequency between the motor cortex and the contralateral tremor electromyography (EMG). Additionally, high thalamomuscular coherence is found with the use of thalamic local field potential (LFP) recordings and tremulous EMG in patients undergoing surgery for deep brain stimulation (DBS). Despite a well-established reciprocal anatomical connection between the thalamus and cortex, the functional association between the two structures during "tremor-on" periods remains elusive. Thalamic (Vim) LFPs, ipsilateral scalp EEG from the sensorimotor cortex and contralateral tremor arm EMG recordings were obtained from two patients with essential tremor who had undergone successful surgery for DBS. Coherence analysis shows a strong linear association between thalamic LFPs and contralateral tremor EMG, but the relationship between the EEG and the thalamus is much less clear. These measurements were then analyzed by constructing a novel parametric nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) model. This new approach uncovered two distinct and not overlapping frequency "channels" of communication between Vim thalamus and the ipsilateral motor cortex, defining robustly "tremor-on" versus "tremor-off" states. The associated estimated nonlinear time lags also showed non-overlapping values between the two states, with longer corticothalamic lags (exceeding 50ms) in the tremor active state, suggesting involvement of an indirect multisynaptic loop. The results reveal the importance of the nonlinear interactions between cortical and subcortical areas in the central motor network of essential tremor. This work is important because it demonstrates for the first time that in essential tremor the functional interrelationships between the cortex and thalamus should not be sought exclusively within individual frequencies but more importantly between cross-frequency nonlinear interactions. Should our results be successfully reproduced on a bigger cohort of patients with essential tremor, our approach could be used to create an on-demand closed-loop DBS device, able to automatically activate when the tremor is on

Electron flux models for different energies at geostationary orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30–50 keV, 50–100 keV, 100–200 keV, 200–350 keV, and 350–600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%

Driver behaviour with adaptive cruise control

This paper reports on the evaluation of adaptive cruise control (ACC) from a psychological perspective. It was anticipated that ACC would have an effect upon the psychology of driving, i.e. make the driver feel like they have less control, reduce the level of trust in the vehicle, make drivers less situationally aware, but workload might be reduced and driving might be less stressful. Drivers were asked to drive in a driving simulator under manual and ACC conditions. Analysis of variance techniques were used to determine the effects of workload (i.e. amount of traffic) and feedback (i.e. degree of information from the ACC system) on the psychological variables measured (i.e. locus of control, trust, workload, stress, mental models and situation awareness). The results showed that: locus of control and trust were unaffected by ACC, whereas situation awareness, workload and stress were reduced by ACC. Ways of improving situation awareness could include cues to help the driver predict vehicle trajectory and identify conflicts

The Capaciousness of No: Affective Refusals as Literacy Practices

© 2020 The Authors. Reading Research Quarterly published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Literacy Association The authors considered the capacious feeling that emerges from saying no to literacy practices, and the affective potential of saying no as a literacy practice. The authors highlight the affective possibilities of saying no to normative understandings of literacy, thinking with a series of vignettes in which children, young people, and teachers refused literacy practices in different ways. The authors use the term capacious to signal possibilities that are as yet unthought: a sense of broadening and opening out through enacting no. The authors examined how attention to affect ruptures humanist logics that inform normative approaches to literacy. Through attention to nonconscious, noncognitive, and transindividual bodily forces and capacities, affect deprivileges the human as the sole agent in an interaction, thus disrupting measurements of who counts as a literate subject and what counts as a literacy event. No is an affective moment. It can signal a pushback, an absence, or a silence. As a theoretical and methodological way of thinking/feeling with literacy, affect proposes problems rather than solutions, countering solution-focused research in which the resistance is to be overcome, co-opted, or solved. Affect operates as a crack or a chink, a tiny ripple, a barely perceivable gesture, that can persist and, in doing so, hold open the possibility for alternative futures

‘The phoenix that always rises from the ashes’: an exploratory qualitative study of the experiences of an initiative informed by principles of psychological first aid following the Beirut blast

BACKGROUND: On 4 August 2020, an explosion occurred in Beirut, Lebanon. Hundreds of people were killed, thousands injured and displaced. An initiative was rapidly initiated to provide remote support informed by psychological first aid for the mental health of Lebanese young adults affected by the blast. However, little is known about recipients’ experiences of such initiatives. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to qualitatively explore the experiences of supporters and recipients in the community-led initiative following the blast. METHOD: We recruited a diverse sample of four supporters and four Lebanese recipients who took part in the Beirut initiative. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with participants. Reflexive thematic analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. RESULTS: We developed five themes from the qualitative interviews, which highlighted ideas around accessibility, alienation, the relationship, elements of the safe space created by the initiative, and unmet needs and areas for improvement. Recipients described the detrimental impact of the blast on their mental health within the Lebanese context and beyond. Recipients and supporters elucidated complex experiences of the support and its impact. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest remote support has the potential to be acceptable for young adults in Lebanon. Further research into support informed by psychological first aid after similar crisis events is warranted

A Simple Iterative Algorithm for Parsimonious Binary Kernel Fisher Discrimination

By applying recent results in optimization theory variously known as optimization transfer or majorize/minimize algorithms, an algorithm for binary, kernel, Fisher discriminant analysis is introduced that makes use of a non-smooth penalty on the coefficients to provide a parsimonious solution. The problem is converted into a smooth optimization that can be solved iteratively with no greater overhead than iteratively re-weighted least-squares. The result is simple, easily programmed and is shown to perform, in terms of both accuracy and parsimony, as well as or better than a number of leading machine learning algorithms on two well-studied and substantial benchmarks