On parameter estimation with the Wasserstein distance

Statistical inference can be performed by minimizing, over the parameter space, the Wasserstein distance between model distributions and the empirical distribution of the data. We study asymptotic properties of such minimum Wasserstein distance estimators, complementing results derived by Bassetti, Bodini and Regazzini in 2006. In particular, our results cover the misspecified setting, in which the data-generating process is not assumed to be part of the family of distributions described by the model. Our results are motivated by recent applications of minimum Wasserstein estimators to complex generative models. We discuss some difficulties arising in the approximation of these estimators and illustrate their behavior in several numerical experiments. Two of our examples are taken from the literature on approximate Bayesian computation and have likelihood functions that are not analytically tractable. Two other examples involve misspecified models.Comment: 29 pages (+18 pages of appendices), 6 figures. To appear in Information and Inference: A Journal of the IMA. A previous version of this paper contained work on approximate Bayesian computation with the Wasserstein distance, which can now be found at arxiv:1905.0374

Adrenal Dysfunction in Hemodynamically Unstable Patients in the Emergency Department

Objective: Adrenal failure, a treatable condition, can have catastrophic consequences if unrecognized in critically ill ED patients. The authors' objective was to prospectively study adrenal function in a case series of hemodynamically unstable (high-risk) patients from a large, urban ED over a 12-month period. Methods: In a prospective manner, critically ill adult patients presenting to the ED were enrolled when presenting with a mean arterial blood pressure ≤60 mm Hg requiring vasopressor therapy for more than one hour after receiving fluid resuscitation (central venous pressure of 12-15 mm Hg or a minimum of 40 mL/kg of crystalloid). Patients were excluded if presenting with hemorrhage, trauma, or AIDS, or if steroids were used within the previous six months. An adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) stimulation test was performed and serum cortisol was measured. Treatment for adrenal insufficiency was not instituted. Results: A total of 57 consecutive patients were studied. Of these, eight (14%) had baseline serum cortisol concentrations of <20 Μg/dL (<552 nmol/L), which was considered adrenal insufficiency (AI). Three additional patients (5%) had subnormal 60-minute post-ACTH-stimulation cortisol responses (<30 Μg/dL) and a delta cortisol ≤9 Μg/dL, which is the difference between the baseline and 60-minute levels. This is functional hypoadrenalism (FH). There were no laboratory abnormalities that distinguished patients with AI or FH from those with preserved adrenal function (PAF). Rates of survival to discharge did not differ between the AI group (7 of 8) and PAF patients (21 of 46; p = 0.052). Conclusions: Adrenal dysfunction is common in high-risk ED patients. Overall, it has a frequency of 19% among a homogeneous population of hemodynamically unstable vasopressor-dependent patients. The effect of physiologic glucocorticoid replacement in this setting remains to be determined.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/71956/1/j.1553-2712.1999.tb00417.x.pd

Model misspecification in approximate Bayesian computation : consequences and diagnostics

We analyze the behavior of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) when the model generating the simulated data differs from the actual data generating process; i.e., when the data simulator in ABC is misspecified. We demonstrate both theoretically and in simple, but practically relevant, examples that when the model is misspecified different versions of ABC can yield substantially different results. Our theoretical results demonstrate that even though the model is misspecified, under regularity conditions, the accept/reject ABC approach concentrates posterior mass on an appropriately defined pseudo-true parameter value. However, under model misspecification the ABC posterior does not yield credible sets with valid frequentist coverage and has non-standard asymptotic behavior. In addition, we examine the theoretical behavior of the popular local regression adjustment to ABC under model misspecification and demonstrate that this approach concentrates posterior mass on a completely different pseudo-true value than accept/reject ABC. Using our theoretical results, we suggest two approaches to diagnose model misspecification in ABC. All theoretical results and diagnostics are illustrated in a simple running example

Is baseline aerobic fitness associated with illness and attrition rate in military training?

Background Respiratory illnesses are a leading cause of morbidity and medical discharge in the military. This study aimed to investigate the effects of baseline aerobic fitness on haematological, salivary and mood variables, and simultaneously, in a novel approach, to identify factors precipitating illness and attrition rate in recruits during military training. Methods Thirty-five healthy male recruits from an Army Training Regiment undertaking 12 weeks of training were prospectively investigated. Their 2.4 km run time (RT) was used as a surrogate of baseline aerobic fitness. Saliva and venous blood samples were analysed for secretory IgA, full blood counts and cell cytokine production (interleukin (IL) 6 and IL-8), respectively. Each recruit completed questionnaires on mood profile, and gastrointestinal and upper respiratory tract symptoms (URTS). Results Significant salivary and haematological perturbations were observed and coincided with increased duration of URTS/week and mood disturbance over this military training period. From Start to End: leucocyte count decreased by 28% ( p<0.001); neutrophil percentage (%) decreased by 13% (p<0.01); lymphocyte % increased by 17% (p<0.05); the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio decreased by 22% (p<0.01); eosinophil% increased by 71% (p<0.01). From Start to Mid to End: monocyte% increased by 68% at Mid (p<0.01) but only by 30% at End (p<0.01); IL-6 increased by 39% at Mid (p<0.01) and a further 61% by End. The 2.4 km RT was significantly associated with URTS duration (p<0.01). In addition, a 1-min increase in 2.4 km RT increased a recruit’s risk 9.8-fold of developing URTS lasting, on average, 3.36 days/week. In recruits ranked with high-URTS duration their RT was 48 s slower (p<0.01) than those with low-URTS, and their attrition rate reached 45%. Conclusions The least fit recruits may have found training more physically demanding as reflected in the higher URTS duration, which may have led to a high attrition rate from the Army. It is worth considering that baseline aerobic fitness might be an important factor in illness development and attrition rate in recruits during this type of military training

Review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents in maritime transportation

The globally expanding shipping industry has several hazards such as collision, capsizing, foundering, grounding, stranding, fire, and explosion. Accidents are often caused by more than one contributing factor through complex interaction. It is crucial to identify root causes and their interactions to prevent and understand such accidents. This study presents a detailed review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents that occurred in the maritimetransportation industry during 1990–2015. The underlying causes of fire and explosion accidents are identified and analysed. This study also reviewed potential preventative measures to prevent such accidents. Additionally, this study compares properties of alternative fuels and analyses their effectiveness in mitigating fire and explosionhazards. It is observed that Cryogenic Natural Gas (CrNG), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and methanol have properties more suitable than traditional fuels in mitigating fire risk and appropriate management of their hazards could make them a safer option to traditional fuels. However, for commercial use at this stage, there exist several uncertainties due to inadequate studies, and technological immaturity. This study provides an insight into fire and explosion accident causation and prevention, including the prospect of using alternative fuels for mitigating fire and explosion risks in maritime transportation