Resonant Scattering and Ly-alpha Radiation Emergent from Neutral Hydrogen Halos

With a state-of-the-art numerical method for solving the integral-differential equation of radiative transfer, we investigate the flux of the Ly$\alpha$ photon $\nu_0$ emergent from an optically thick halo containing a central light source. Our focus is on the time-dependent effects of the resonant scattering. We first show that the frequency distribution of photons in the halo are quickly approaching to a locally thermalized state around the resonant frequency, even when the mean intensity of the radiation is highly time-dependent. Since initial conditions are forgotten during the thermalization, some features of the flux, such as the two peak structure of its profile, actually are independent of the intrinsic width and time behavior of the central source, if the emergent photons are mainly from photons in the thermalized state. In this case, the difference $|\nu_{\pm}-\nu_0|$, where $\nu_{\pm}$ are the frequencies of the two peaks of the flux, cannot be less than $2$ times of Doppler broadening. We then study the radiative transfer in the case where the light emitted from the central source is a flash. We calculate the light curves of the flux from the halo. It shows that the flux is still a flash. The time duration of the flash for the flux, however, is independent of the original time duration of the light source but depends on the optical depth of the halo. Therefore, the spatial transfer of resonant photons is a diffusion process, even though it is not a purely Brownian diffusion. This property enables an optically thick halo to trap and store thermalized photons around $\nu_0$ for a long time after the cease of the central source emission. The photons trapped in the halo can yield delayed emission, of which the profile also shows typical two peak structure as that from locally thermalized photons. Possible applications of these results are addressed.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

On the nature and impact of self-similarity in real-time systems

In real-time systems with highly variable task execution times simplistic task models are insufficient to accurately model and to analyze the system. Variability can be tackled using distributions rather than a single value, but the proper charac- terization depends on the degree of variability. Self-similarity is one of the deep- est kinds of variability. It characterizes the fact that a workload is not only highly variable, but it is also bursty on many time-scales. This paper identifies in which situations this source of indeterminism can appear in a real-time system: the com- bination of variability in task inter-arrival times and execution times. Although self- similarity is not a claim for all systems with variable execution times, it is not unusual in some applications with real-time requirements, like video processing, networking and gaming. The paper shows how to properly model and to analyze self-similar task sets and how improper modeling can mask deadline misses. The paper derives an analyti- cal expression for the dependence of the deadline miss ratio on the degree of self- similarity and proofs its negative impact on real-time systems performance through system¿s modeling and simulation. This study about the nature and impact of self- similarity on soft real-time systems can help to reduce its effects, to choose the proper scheduling policies, and to avoid its causes at system design time.This work was developed under a grant from the European Union (FRESCOR-FP6/2005/IST/5-03402).Enrique Hernández-Orallo; Vila Carbó, JA. (2012). On the nature and impact of self-similarity in real-time systems. Real-Time Systems. 48(3):294-319. doi:10.1007/s11241-012-9146-0S294319483Abdelzaher TF, Sharma V, Lu C (2004) A utilization bound for aperiodic tasks and priority driven scheduling. IEEE Trans Comput 53(3):334–350Abeni L, Buttazzo G (1999) QoS guarantee using probabilistic deadlines. In: Proc of the Euromicro confererence on real-time systemsAbeni L, Buttazzo G (2004) Resource reservation in dynamic real-time systems. Real-Time Syst 37(2):123–167Anantharam V (1999) Scheduling strategies and long-range dependence. Queueing Syst 33(1–3):73–89Beran J (1994) Statistics for long-memory processes. Chapman and Hall, LondonBeran J, Sherman R, Taqqu M, Willinger W (1995) Long-range dependence in variable-bit-rate video traffic. IEEE Trans Commun 43(2):1566–1579Boxma O, Zwart B (2007) Tails in scheduling. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 34(4):13–20Brichet F, Roberts J, Simonian A, Veitch D (1996) Heavy traffic analysis of a storage model with long range dependent on/off sources. Queueing Syst 23(1):197–215Crovella M, Bestavros A (1997) Self-similarity in world wide web traffic: evidence and possible causes. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 5(6):835–846Dìaz J, Garcìa D, Kim K, Lee C, Bello LL, López J, Min LS, Mirabella O (2002) Stochastic analysis of periodic real-time systems. In: Proc of the 23rd IEEE real-time systems symposium, pp 289–300Erramilli A, Narayan O, Willinger W (1996) Experimental queueing analysis with long-range dependent packet traffic. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 4(2):209–223Erramilli A, Roughan M, Veitch D, Willinger W (2002) Self-similar traffic and network dynamics. Proc IEEE 90(5):800–819Gardner M (1999) Probabilistic analysis and scheduling of critical soft real-time systems. Phd thesis, University of Illinois, Urbana-ChampaignGarrett MW, Willinger W (1994) Analysis, modeling and generation of self-similar vbr video traffic. In: ACM SIGCOMMHarchol-Balter M (2002) Task assignment with unknown duration. J ACM 49(2):260–288Harchol-Balter M (2007) Foreword: Special issue on new perspective in scheduling. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 34(4):2–3Harchol-Balter M, Downey AB (1997) Exploiting process lifetime distributions for dynamic load balancing. ACM Trans Comput Syst 15(3):253–285Hernandez-Orallo E, Vila-Carbo J (2007) Network performance analysis based on histogram workload models. In: Proceedings of the 15th international symposium on modeling, analysis, and simulation of computer and telecommunication systems (MASCOTS), pp 331–336Hernandez-Orallo E, Vila-Carbo J (2010) Analysis of self-similar workload on real-time systems. In: IEEE real-time and embedded technology and applications symposium (RTAS). IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 343–352Hernández-Orallo E, Vila-Carbó J (2010) Network queue and loss analysis using histogram-based traffic models. Comput Commun 33(2):190–201Hughes CJ, Kaul P, Adve SV, Jain R, Park C, Srinivasan J (2001) Variability in the execution of multimedia applications and implications for architecture. SIGARCH Comput Archit News 29(2):254–265Leland W, Ott TJ (1986) Load-balancing heuristics and process behavior. SIGMETRICS Perform Eval Rev 14(1):54–69Leland WE, Taqqu MS, Willinger W, Wilson DV (1994) On the self-similar nature of ethernet traffic (extended version). IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 2(1):1–15Liu CL, Layland JW (1973) Scheduling algorithms for multiprogramming in a hard-real-time environment. J ACM 20(1):46–61Mandelbrot B (1965) Self-similar error clusters in communication systems and the concept of conditional stationarity. IEEE Trans Commun 13(1):71–90Mandelbrot BB (1969) Long run linearity, locally Gaussian processes, h-spectra and infinite variances. Int Econ Rev 10:82–113Norros I (1994) A storage model with self-similar input. Queueing Syst 16(3):387–396Norros I (2000) Queueing behavior under fractional Brownian traffic. In: Park K, Willinger W (eds) Self-similar network traffic and performance evaluation. Willey, New York, Chap 4Park K, Willinger W (2000) Self-similar network traffic: An overview. In: Park K, Willinger W (eds) Self-similar network traffic and performance evaluation. Willey, New York, Chap 1Paxson V, Floyd S (1995) Wide area traffic: the failure of Poisson modeling. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 3(3):226–244Rolls DA, Michailidis G, Hernández-Campos F (2005) Queueing analysis of network traffic: methodology and visualization tools. Comput Netw 48(3):447–473Rose O (1995) Statistical properties of mpeg video traffic and their impact on traffic modeling in atm systems. In: Conference on local computer networksRoy N, Hamm N, Madhukar M, Schmidt DC, Dowdy L (2009) The impact of variability on soft real-time system scheduling. In: RTCSA ’09: Proceedings of the 2009 15th IEEE international conference on embedded and real-time computing systems and applications. IEEE Computer Society, Washington, pp 527–532Sha L, Abdelzaher T, Årzén KE, Cervin A, Baker T, Burns A, Buttazzo G, Caccamo M, Lehoczky J, Mok AK (2004) Real time scheduling theory: A historical perspective. Real-Time Syst 28(2):101–155Taqqu MS, Willinger W, Sherman R (1997) Proof of a fundamental result in self-similar traffic modeling. SIGCOMM Comput Commun Rev 27(2):5–23Tia T, Deng Z, Shankar M, Storch M, Sun J, Wu L, Liu J (1995) Probabilistic performance guarantee for real-time tasks with varying computation times. In: Proc of the real-time technology and applications symposium, pp 164–173Vila-Carbó J, Hernández-Orallo E (2008) An analysis method for variable execution time tasks based on histograms. Real-Time Syst 38(1):1–37Willinger W, Taqqu M, Erramilli A (1996) A bibliographical guide to self-similar traffic and performance modeling for modern high-speed networks. In: Stochastic networks: Theory and applications, pp 339–366Willinger W, Taqqu MS, Sherman R, Wilson DV (1997) Self-similarity through high-variability: statistical analysis of ethernet lan traffic at the source level. IEEE/ACM Trans Netw 5(1):71–8

Understanding child and adolescent cyberbullying

Global development of digital technologies has provided considerable connectivity benefits. However, connectivity of this scale has presented a seemingly unmanageable number of potential risks to psychological harm especially experienced by children and adolescents; one such risk is cyberbullying. This chapter will initially address the origins of bullying, leading into an overview of cyberbullying. A review of the unique characteristics of online communication will shed light on the ongoing debate concerning cyberbullying being potentially more than an extension of traditional bullying. Current research findings encompassing prevalence, types of behavior, consequences, and the roles within cyberbullying activity will be discussed to guide future interventions to reduce the risk of vulnerability for children and adolescents. In parallel, this chapter also considers the relative and perhaps distorted risk perception that young people have of becoming a cybervictim. Finally, this chapter acknowledges current understanding to support future digital and social evolvement.N/

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Australia – history and potential lessons

This paper maps out the Australian experience with COVID-19 infection from late January 2020, when the first cases appeared in passengers travelling from Wuhan, Guandong, China, through to mid May 2020, at the time of preparing the paper. It outlines the evolution of cases from 9 cases at the end of January to almost 7,000 cases by mid-May, of which 90% had recovered, 0.24% were in Intensive Care, 0.7% were in hospital and more than 900,000 tests had been performed. The paper maps out the Government’s response to COVID-19, the restrictions imposed and the economic stimulus provided, equating to 16.4% of Growth Domestic Product. It also identified the fines to be imposed upon those who ignored the restrictions. By mid-May the emphasis was not on “shutdowns” and restrictions but on a tempered and rational relaxation thereof with an aim to reinvigorate the economy. On 19th March, the Ruby Princess Cruise Ship docked in Sydney, creating the single greatest progenitor of positive cases and deaths associated with coronavirus in Australia, which ultimately resulted in police investigation and a Royal Commission. Other clusters were noted such as Anglicare Newmarch House Aged Care Facility, which also led to 18 deaths due to Coronavirus and together with the Ruby Princess accounted for 40 of the 45 deaths in New South Wales (NSW). The paper also identified other clusters, such as 88 cases associated with Cedar Meats Abattoir in Victoria and the closure of North West Regional Hospital and North West Private hospital in Tasmania. Not everyone respected the lockdown laws and the paper includes some high profile individuals, identified as having broken the rules and incurred heavy penalties, including a NSW Cabinet Minister, who was fined $1,000 AUD plus losing his State Government Cabinet position due to contravention of the Public Health Act. There were 4,500 Australians fined a minimum of$1,000 AUD for breaches of social distancing rules. By mid May 2020, it was apparent that there were definite lessons to be learnt from the Coronavirus Pandemic and the paper maps out some of these while also pointing out that such lessons will continue to emerge from the Pandemic and may well alter the approach to Pandemics into the future