A practical approach for applying Bayesian logic to determine the probabilities of subsurface scenarios: example from an offshore oilfield

During appraisal of an undeveloped segment of a producing offshore oilfield, three well penetrations revealed unexpected complexity and compartmentalization. Business decisions on whether and how to develop this segment depended on understanding the possible interpretations of the subsurface. This was achieved using the following steps that incorporated a novel practical application of Bayesian logic. 1. Scenarios were identified to span the full range of possible subsurface interpretations. This was achieved through a facilitated cross-disciplinary exercise including external participants. The exercise generated 12 widely differing subsurface scenarios, which could be grouped into 4 types of mechanisms: slumping, structural, depositional, and diagenetic. 2. Prior probabilities were assigned to each scenario. These probabilities were elicited from the same subsurface team and external experts who performed step 1, using their diverse knowledge and experience. 3. The probabilities of each scenario were updated by evaluating them sequentially with 21 individual pieces of evidence, progressively down-weighting belief in scenarios that were inconsistent with the evidence. For each piece of evidence, the likelihood (chance that the scenario could produce the evidence) was estimated qualitatively by the same team using a “traffic-light” high-medium-low assessment. Offline, these were converted to numerical likelihood values. Posterior probabilities were derived by multiplying the priors by the likelihoods and renormalizing to sum to unity across all of the scenarios. 4. The most probable scenarios were selected for quantitative reservoir modeling, to evaluate the potential outcomes of business decisions, given each scenario. Of the 12 scenarios identified in step 1, most were strongly down-weighted by the sequential revisions against evidence in step 3; after this, only scenarios in the “slumping” group retained significant posterior probabilities. The data showed minimal sensitivity to the initial assumption of prior probability in step 2. This process had several benefits. First, it encouraged the subsurface team to imagine a full range of scenarios that were likely to bracket the actual subsurface “truth,” something that is critical for subsequent decision-making. Second, it allowed belief in the probability of each scenario to be updated systematically in a way that was strongly conditioned to the evidence, so that the choice of scenarios to take through to reservoir modeling was more objective and evidence-based. Third, it allowed an assessment of the usefulness of individual pieces of evidence, which could be used to guide value-of-information assessments for subsequent data acquisition. Finally, the process enabled rigorous Bayesian revision methods to be applied in a simple practical way that engaged the subsurface team without exposing them to the underlying mathematics. During field appraisal and development, when the subsurface is revealed gradually as more data are acquired and studied, the process outlined here provides a practical way of generating and modifying belief in a range of subsurface scenarios while minimizing exposure to potential biases and logical fallacies that could affect subsequent decision quality. It also helps to decide which scenarios are sufficiently probable that they need to be represented by detailed reservoir models

Próteses parciais fixas reforçadas por fibras: um estudo clínico retrospectivo preliminar

The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical performance (retention rate) of fiber-reinforced composite fixed partial dentures (FPDs). Polyethylene fiber (Ribbond®) was used combined with restorative composite during FPDs fabrication. FPDs were placed in thirteen patients in a private clinic. Nineteen FPDs were evaluated. The prosthetic space was filled with only one pontic using extracted teeth (2 cases), acrylic resin teeth (11 cases), or with composite resin (6 cases), combined with Polyethylene fiber. The clinical criterion used was based on retention rate of FPDs. If FPDs were in function in the mouth at the time of examination without previous repair they were classified as Complete Survival (CS) restorations. A classification of Survival with Rebonding (SR) was assigned in the event of an adhesive failure, but after rebonding the FPD still remained under evaluation. Treatment was classified as a Failure (F) if the FPD restoration was lost. The time of evaluation was 41.15 months (±15.13). The FPDs evaluated were retained (CS=94.75%), and no failure was found except for in one situation which required rebonding (SR=5.25%). According to the survival estimation method of Kaplan-Meyer the mean survival time was 42.3 months. At the time of evaluation investigated, polyethylene-reinforced FPDs showed a favorable retention rate in preliminary data.O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a performance clínica (percentagem de retenção) de próteses parciais fixas reforçadas por fibras. Fibras de polietileno (Ribbond®) foram usadas em combinação com resina composta durante a confecção das próteses. Os tratamentos foram realizadas em 13 pacientes, em uma clínica privada., sendo que 19 próteses foram reavaliadas. O espaço protético era preenchido com um pôntico usando o próprio dente extraído (2 casos), dentes de acrílico (11 casos) ou confeccionados com resina composta (6 casos), em todas as situações eram empregadas fibras de polietileno. Os critérios clínicos usados foram baseados na percentagem de retenção das próteses parciais fixas. As próteses que estavam em função no momento da avaliação, sem nunca necessitar de qualquer reparo prévio, foram classificadas como sobrevivência completa (SC). A classificação de sobrevivência com nova colagem (SR) foi utilizada para os casos de falha adesiva, com posterior cimentação da peça, a qual permanecia em função. O tratamento era classificado como falha (F) quando a restauração era perdida. O tempo médio de avaliação foi de 41,15 meses (±15,13). Nenhum caso de falha foi detectado, em apenas um caso houve falha adesiva com posterior colagem da peça (SR=5,25%) e em 94.75% dos casos as próteses permaneciam em função.. De acordo com o método de sobrevida de Kaplan-Meyer o tempo médio de sobrevida foi de 42,3 meses. As próteses parciais fixas reforçadas por fibras mostraram uma percentagem de retenção favorável neste estudo preliminar

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Search for new Higgs bosons via same-sign top quark pair production in association with a jet in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Data availability: Release and preservation of data used by the CMS Collaboration as the basis for publications is guided by the CMS policy as stated in “CMS data preservation, re-use and open access policy” available online at: https://cms-docdb.cern.ch/cgi-bin/PublicDocDB/RetrieveFile?docid=6032&filename=CMSDataPolicyV1.2.pdf&version=2 .A preprint of this article is available online at arXiv:2311.03261v2 [hep-ex] https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.03261v2 . Comments: Replaced with the published version. Added the journal reference and the DOI. All the figures and tables can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/TOP-22-010 (CMS Public Pages)A search is presented for new Higgs bosons in proton-proton (pp) collision events in which a same-sign top quark pair is produced in association with a jet, via the pp → tH/A → tt¯c and pp → tH/A → tt¯u processes. Here, H and A represent the extra scalar and pseudoscalar boson, respectively, of the second Higgs doublet in the generalized two-Higgs-doublet model (g2HDM). The search is based on pp collision data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. Final states with a same-sign lepton pair in association with jets and missing transverse momentum are considered. New Higgs bosons in the 200-1000 GeV mass range and new Yukawa couplings between 0.1 and 1.0 are targeted in the search, for scenarios in which either H or A appear alone, or in which they coexist and interfere. No significant excess above the standard model prediction is observed. Exclusion limits are derived in the context of the g2HDM.SCOAP3

Search for long-lived heavy neutral leptons with lepton flavour conserving or violating decays to a jet and a charged lepton

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv:2312.07484v3 [hep-ex], https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.07484 . Comments: Replaced with the published version. Added the journal reference and the DOI. All the figures and tables can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/EXO-21-013 (CMS Public Pages)A search for long-lived heavy neutral leptons (HNLs) is presented, which considers the hadronic final state and coupling scenarios involving all three lepton generations in the 2-20 GeV HNL mass range for the first time. Events comprising two leptons (electrons or muons) and jets are analyzed in a data sample of proton-proton collisions, recorded with the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. A novel jet tagger, based on a deep neural network, has been developed to identify jets from an HNL decay using various features of the jet and its constituent particles. The network output can be used as a powerful discriminating tool to probe a broad range of HNL lifetimes and masses. Contributions from background processes are determined from data. No excess of events in data over the expected background is observed. Upper limits on the HNL production cross section are derived as functions of the HNL mass and the three coupling strengths VℓN to each lepton generation ℓ and presented as exclusion limits in the coupling-mass plane, as lower limits on the HNL lifetime, and on the HNL mass. In this search, the most stringent limit on the coupling strength is obtained for pure muon coupling scenarios; values of |VμN|2 > 5 (4) × 10−7 are excluded for Dirac (Majorana) HNLs with a mass of 10 GeV at a confidence level of 95% that correspond to proper decay lengths of 17 (10) mm.SCOAP3

Search for dark matter particles in W+W− events with transverse momentum imbalance in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv:2310.12229v2 [hep-ex], https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.12229v2 . Comments: Replaced with the published version. Added the journal reference and the DOI. All the figures and tables can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/EXO-21-012 (CMS Public Pages).A search for dark matter particles is performed using events with a pair of W bosons and large missing transverse momentum. Candidate events are selected by requiring one or two leptons (ℓ = electrons or muons). The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed in the ℓνqq and 2ℓ2ν final states of the W+W− boson pair. Limits are set on dark matter production in the context of a simplified dark Higgs model, with a dark Higgs boson mass above the W+W− mass threshold. The dark matter phase space is probed in the mass range 100–300 GeV, extending the scope of previous searches. Current exclusion limits are improved in the range of dark Higgs masses from 160 to 250 GeV, for a dark matter mass of 200 GeV.SCOAP3

Search for direct production of GeV-scale resonances decaying to a pair of muons in proton-proton collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv:2309.16003v2 [hep-ex], https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.16003v2 . Comments: Replaced with the published version. Added the journal reference and the DOI. All the figures and tables, including additional supplementary figures, can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/EXO-21-005 (CMS Public Pages). Report number: CMS-EXO-21-005, CERN-EP-2023-165.A search for direct production of low-mass dimuon resonances is performed using s√ = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment during the 2017-2018 operation of the CERN LHC with an integrated luminosity of 96.6 fb−1. The search exploits a dedicated high-rate trigger stream that records events with two muons with transverse momenta as low as 3 GeV but does not include the full event information. The search is performed by looking for narrow peaks in the dimuon mass spectrum in the ranges of 1.1-2.6 GeV and 4.2-7.9 GeV. No significant excess of events above the expectation from the standard model background is observed. Model-independent limits on production rates of dimuon resonances within the experimental fiducial acceptance are set. Competitive or world's best limits are set at 90% confidence level for a minimal dark photon model and for a scenario with two Higgs doublets and an extra complex scalar singlet (2HDM+S). Values of the squared kinetic mixing coefficient ε2 in the dark photon model above 10−6 are excluded over most of the mass range of the search. In the 2HDM+S, values of the mixing angle sin(θH) above 0.08 are excluded over most of the mass range of the search with a fixed ratio of the Higgs doublets vacuum expectation tanβ = 0.5.SCOAP3

Search for W′ bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark in leptonic final states in proton-proton collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv:2310.19893v1 [hep-ex], https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.19893v1 . Comments: Submitted to the Journal of High Energy Physics. All figures and tables can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/B2G-20-012 (CMS Public Pages). Report number: CMS-B2G-20-012, CERN-EP-2023-213.A search for W' bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark in final states including an electron or a muon is performed with the CMS detector at the LHC. The analyzed data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb^{-1} of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 Tev. Good agreement with the standard model expectation is observed and no evidence for the existence of the W' boson is found over the mass range examined. The largest observed deviation from the standard model expectation is found for a W' boson mass (mW′) hypothesis of 3.8 TeV with a relative decay width of 1%, with a local (global) significance of 2.6 (2.0) standard deviations. Upper limits on the production cross sections of W' bosons decaying to a top and a bottom quark are set. Left- and right-handed W' bosons with mW′ below 3.9 and 4.3 TeV, respectively, are excluded at the 95% confidence level, under the assumption that the new particle has a narrow decay width. Limits are also set for relative decay widths up to 30%. These are the most stringent limits to date on this W' boson decay channel.SCOAP3

Search for physics beyond the standard model in top quark production with additional leptons in the context of effective field theory

A preprint version of the article is available at arXiv:2307.15761v2 [hep-ex], https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.15761v2 . Comments: Replaced with the published version. Added the journal reference and the DOI. All the figures and tables can be found at https://cms-results.web.cern.ch/cms-results/public-results/publications/TOP-22-006 (CMS Public Pages). Report number: CMS-TOP-22-006, CERN-EP-2023-124.A search for new physics in top quark production with additional final-state leptons is performed using data collected by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV at the LHC during 2016-2018. The data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. Using the framework of effective field theory (EFT), potential new physics effects are parametrized in terms of 26 dimension-six EFT operators. The impacts of EFT operators are incorporated through the event-level reweighting of Monte Carlo simulations, which allows for detector-level predictions. The events are divided into several categories based on lepton multiplicity, total lepton charge, jet multiplicity, and b-tagged jet multiplicity. Kinematic variables corresponding to the transverse momentum (pT) of the leading pair of leptons and/or jets as well as the pT of on-shell Z bosons are used to extract the 95% confidence intervals of the 26 Wilson coefficients corresponding to these EFT operators. No significant deviation with respect to the standard model prediction is found.SCOAP3