The diversity of population responses to environmental change

This is the final version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Data available from the Dryad Digital Repository: https:// doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d5f54s7The current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever-greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well-advanced theory of age-structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age-dependency in demographic rates and the year-to-year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age-specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage- vs. age-based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival-fecundity-trade-offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age-specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.Max Planck Society, Marie Curie FellowshipERCGerman Research FoundationSwiss National Science FoundationNational Science FoundationNational Institute of AgingRamon y Cajal Research GrantWenner-Gren FoundationLeakey FoundationNational Geographic SocietyZoological Society of San DiegoUniversity of PennsylvaniaArgentinean National Council of Researc

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (bodymass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (body mass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

Predicting optimal web size in orb weaving spiders: are nitrogen costs and benefits the whole story?

Webs spun by orb-weaving spiders vary in size and structure. Adaptationist theory suggests that this structural variation is not random but, instead, has evolved to maximize web performance. Sixty webs were examined, measuring area, density, and prey capture rates. A nitrogen assay was performed on prey and webs. A nitrogen cost-benefit analysis was used to determine maximum and optimum web size. Web area, but not density, was shown to influence prey capture rate. Nitrogen was not found to influence the distribution of web sizes. Therefore, additional ""hidden"" costs have been proposed.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/54243/1/2679.pdfDescription of 2679.pdf : Access restricted to on-site users at the U-M Biological Station

Diurnal frugivores on the Bromeliaceae Aechmea depressa L.B. Sm. from Northeastern Brazil: the prominent role taken by a small forest primate

Little is known about frugivory of epiphytes. We investigated diurnal frugivores consuming Aechmea depressa, an endemic species from Southern Bahia, Brazil, through 67 hours of observation on three fruiting individuals. Infructescences were visited for 2% of the time and only by golden-headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas). Aechmea depressa invests on physical defense to retain fruits for prolonged periods, however, GHLTs used their small size and dexterity to remove rigid bracts and extract fruits from the infructescence. Prior studies indicate GHLTs disperse Aechmea seeds. Given the low visitation rates and probability that few frugivores successfully manipulate A. depressa fruits, we suggest that GHLTs are extremely important to maintaining the populations of this bromeliad species

Metamodels for transdisciplinary analysis of wildlife population dynamics.

Wildlife population models have been criticized for their narrow disciplinary perspective when analyzing complexity in coupled biological - physical - human systems. We describe a "metamodel" approach to species risk assessment when diverse threats act at different spatiotemporal scales, interact in non-linear ways, and are addressed by distinct disciplines. A metamodel links discrete, individual models that depict components of a complex system, governing the flow of information among models and the sequence of simulated events. Each model simulates processes specific to its disciplinary realm while being informed of changes in other metamodel components by accessing common descriptors of the system, populations, and individuals. Interactions among models are revealed as emergent properties of the system. We introduce a new metamodel platform, both to further explain key elements of the metamodel approach and as an example that we hope will facilitate the development of other platforms for implementing metamodels in population biology, species risk assessments, and conservation planning. We present two examples - one exploring the interactions of dispersal in metapopulations and the spread of infectious disease, the other examining predator-prey dynamics - to illustrate how metamodels can reveal complex processes and unexpected patterns when population dynamics are linked to additional extrinsic factors. Metamodels provide a flexible, extensible method for expanding population viability analyses beyond models of isolated population demographics into more complete representations of the external and intrinsic threats that must be understood and managed for species conservation

Population trajectories for a prey species subjected to different levels of predation.

<p>Mean prey population size through time is predicted by a single-species PVA model that assumed a fixed predator population size. Simulations were run for predator populations of 50, 60, 70, 80, and 100 individuals. The prey population was sustained at a size of N = 10000 or more if there were 80 or fewer predators.</p