Die Allokation des Verkehrsmengenrisikos bei Betreibermodellen für Straßeninfrastruktur: Theoretische Grundlagen und Anwendung auf das A-Modell

In diesem Beitrag werden auf Basis theoretischer Überlegungen Empfehlungen zur effizienten Allokation des Verkehrsmengenrisikos abgeleitet und auf Betreibermodelle für Bundesfernstraßen nach dem so genannten A-Modell angewandt. Es wird festgestellt, dass grundsätzlich eine Teilung des Verkehrsmengenrisikos zwischen Konzessionär und Nutzern einer Straßeninfrastruktur die optimale Lösung darstellt, was durch Konzessionen mit variabler Laufzeit nach dem Barwertverfahren zu erreichen ist. Da allerdings bei Projekten nach dem A-Modell eine Risikoübernahme durch die Nutzer nicht möglich ist, sollte der Großteil des Verkehrsmengenrisikos vom Staat getragen werden. -- This paper discusses aspects of the efficient allocation of traffic risk on the basis of theoretical considerations; these are applicated to a special concession-model for transport infrastructure projects in Germany, the so called A-Modell. It is shown that in general a division of the traffic risk between the concessionaire and the users of a road infrastructure represents the optimal solution, which can be achieved by concession contracts with a variable term using Least Present Value of Revenue (LPVR) auctions. Since the A-Modell does not allow for traffic risk to be borne by users, the majority of the traffic risk should be borne by the state.Risikoallokation,Verkehrsmengenrisiko,Betreibermodell,Straßeninfrastruktur,Risk allocation,traffic risk,concession,road infrastructure

The elusive nature of the blocking effect: 15 failures to replicate

With the discovery of the blocking effect, learning theory took a huge leap forward, because blocking provided a crucial clue that surprise is what drives learning. This in turn stimulated the development of novel association-formation theories of learning. Eventually, the ability to explain blocking became nothing short of a touchstone for the validity of any theory of learning, including propositional and other nonassociative theories. The abundance of publications reporting a blocking effect and the importance attributed to it suggest that it is a robust phenomenon. Yet, in the current article we report 15 failures to observe a blocking effect despite the use of procedures that are highly similar or identical to those used in published studies. Those failures raise doubts regarding the canonical nature of the blocking effect and call for a reevaluation of the central status of blocking in theories of learning. They may also illustrate how publication bias influences our perspective toward the robustness and reliability of seemingly established effects in the psychological literature

Role of fixed-combination brinzolamide 1%/timolol 0.5% in the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure in open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension

Brinzolamide 1%/timolol 0.5% is a new fixed-combination for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension. Brinzolamide/timolol has a favorable safety profile, with an incidence of ocular burning and stinging <5%. Published data show that brinzolamide 1%/timolol 0.5% and dorzolamide 2%/timolol 0.5% have similar efficacies for lowering intraocular pressure (IOP). There is some evidence that brinzolamide/timolol may be more comfortable. Although patients receiving brinzolamide/timolol may experience more blurred vision on instillation, some data show a preference for brinzolamide/timolol over dorzolamide/timolol. Although available data to assess the role of brinzolamide/timolol in daily clinical practice are still limited, these first results suggest the agent to be a reasonable alternative for patients who do not reach target IOP with monotherapy

miRBase Tracker : keeping track of microRNA annotation changes

Since 2002, information on individual microRNAs (miRNAs), such as reference names and sequences, has been stored in miRBase, the reference database for miRNA annota- tion. As a result of progressive insights into the miRNome and its complexity, miRBase underwent addition and deletion of miRNA records, changes in annotated miRNA se- quences and adoption of more complex naming schemes over time. Unfortunately, miRBase does not allow straightforward assessment of these ongoing miRNA annota- tion changes, which has resulted in substantial ambiguity regarding miRNA identity and sequence in public literature, in target prediction databases and in content on various commercially available analytical platforms. As a result, correct interpretation, compari- son and integration of miRNA study results are compromised, which we demonstrate here by assessing the impact of ignoring sequence annotation changes. To address this problem, we developed miRBase Tracker (www.mirbasetracker.org), an easy-to-use on- line database that keeps track of all historical and current miRNA annotation present in the miRBase database. Three basic functionalities allow researchers to keep their miRNA annotation up-to-date, reannotate analytical miRNA platforms and link published results with outdated annotation to the latest miRBase release. We expect miRBase Tracker to increase the transparency and annotation accuracy in the field of miRNA research. Database URL: www.mirbasetracker.or

3D view of transient horizontal magnetic fields in the photosphere

We infer the 3D magnetic structure of a transient horizontal magnetic field (THMF) during its evolution through the photosphere using SIRGAUS inversion code. The SIRGAUS code is a modified version of SIR (Stokes Inversion based on Response function), and allows for retrieval of information on the magnetic and thermodynamic parameters of the flux tube embedded in the atmosphere from the observed Stokes profiles. Spectro-polarimetric observations of the quiet Sun at the disk center were performed with the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) on board Hinode with Fe I 630.2 nm lines. Using repetitive scans with a cadence of 130 s, we first detect the horizontal field that appears inside a granule, near its edge. On the second scan, vertical fields with positive and negative polarities appear at both ends of the horizontal field. Then, the horizontal field disappears leaving the bipolar vertical magnetic fields. The results from the inversion of the Stokes spectra clearly point to the existence of a flux tube with magnetic field strength of $\sim400$ G rising through the line forming layer of the Fe I 630.2 nm lines. The flux tube is located at around $\log\tau_{500} \sim0$ at $\Delta t$=0 s and around $\log\tau_{500} \sim-1.7$ at $\Delta t$=130 s. At $\Delta t$=260 s the horizontal part is already above the line forming region of the analyzed lines. The observed Doppler velocity is maximally 3 km s$^{-1}$, consistent with the upward motion of the structure as retrieved from the SIRGAUS code. The vertical size of the tube is smaller than the thickness of the line forming layer. The THMF has a clear $\Omega$-shaped-loop structure with the apex located near the edge of a granular cell. The magnetic flux carried by this THMF is estimated to be $3.1\times10^{17}$ Mx.Comment: 35 pages, 9 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap

Anharmonic force fields of perchloric acid, HClO4_4, and perchloric anhydride, Cl2_2O7_7. An extreme case of inner polarization

DFT (density functional theory) anharmonic force fields with basis sets near the Kohn-Sham limit have been obtained for perchloric acid, HClO$_4$, and perchloric anhydride, Cl$_2$O$_7$. Calculated fundamental frequencies are in very good agreement with available experimental data. Some reassignments in the vibrational spectra of Cl$_2$O$_7$ are proposed based on our calculations. HClO$_4$ and Cl$_2$O$_7$ are particularly severe examples of the `inner polarization' phenomenon. The polarization consistent basis sets pc-1 and pc-2 (as well as their augmented counterparts) should be supplemented with two (preferably three) and one (preferably two) high-exponent $d$ functions, respectively, on second-row atoms. Complete anharmonic force fields are available as electronic supporting information.Comment: J. Mol. Struct., in press (special issue); Electronic Supporting Information at http://theochem.weizmann.ac.il/web/papers/Cl2O7.htm

Failures to replicate blocking are surprising and informative : reply to Soto

The blocking effect has inspired numerous associative learning theories and is widely cited in the literature. We recently reported a series of 15 experiments that failed to obtain a blocking effect in rodents. Based on those consistent failures, we claimed that there is a lack of insight into the boundary conditions for blocking. In his commentary, Soto (in press) argues that contemporary associative learning theory does provide a specific boundary condition for the occurrence of blocking, namely the use of same- versus different-modality stimuli. Given that in ten of our 15 experiments same-modality stimuli were used, he claims that our failure to observe a blocking effect is unsurprising. We cannot but disagree with that claim, because of theoretical, empirical, and statistical problems with his analysis. We also address two other possible reasons for a lack of blocking that are referred to in Soto's (in press) analysis, related to generalization and salience, and dissect the potential importance of both. While Soto's (in press) analyses raises a number of interesting points, we see more merit in an empirically guided analysis and call for empirical testing of boundary conditions on blocking

Perfluoro Alkyl Hypofluorites and Peroxides Revisited

A more convenient synthesis of the perfluoro alkyl hypofluorite (F3C)3COF as well as the hitherto unknown (C2F5)(F3C)2COF compound is reported. Both hypofluorites can be prepared by use of the corresponding tertiary alcohols RFOH and elemental fluorine in the presence of CsF. An appropriate access to these highly reactive hypofluorites is crucial. The hypofluorites are then transferred into their corresponding perfluoro bisalkyl peroxides RFOORF [RF=(F3C)3C, (C2F5)(F3C)2C] by treatment with partially fluorinated silver wool. NMR, gas‐phase infrared, and solid‐state Raman spectra of the perfluoro bisalkyl peroxides are presented and their chemical properties are discussed

State-of-the-art stochastic data assimilation methods for high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems

This paper compares several commonly used state-of-the-art ensemble-based data assimilation methods in a coherent mathematical notation. The study encompasses different methods that are applicable to high-dimensional geophysical systems, like ocean and atmosphere, and provide an uncertainty estimate. Most variants of Ensemble Kalman Filters, Particle Filters and second-order exact methods are discussed, including Gaussian Mixture Filters, while methods that require an adjoint model or a tangent linear formulation of the model are excluded. The detailed description of all the methods in a mathematically coherent way provides both novices and experienced researchers with a unique overview and new insight in the workings and relative advantages of each method, theoretically and algorithmically, even leading to new filters. Furthermore, the practical implementation details of all ensemble and particle filter methods are discussed to show similarities and differences in the filters aiding the users in what to use when. Finally, pseudo-codes are provided for all of the methods presented in this paper