Using climate information to support crop breeding decisions and adaptation in agriculture

Population growth in the next few decades will increase the need for food production, while the yields of major food crops could be impacted by the changing climate and changing threats from pests and pathogens. Crop breeding, both through conventional techniques, and GM assisted breeding could help meet these challenges, if adequately supported by appropriate information on the future climate. We highlight some of the major challenges for crop breeders and growers in the coming decades, and describe the main characteristics of crop breeding techniques and other adaptation options for agriculture. We review recent uses of climate information to support crop breeding decisions and make recommendations for how this might be improved. We conclude that there is significant potential for breeders to work more closely with climate scientists and crop modellers in order to address the challenges of climate change. It is not yet clear how climate information can best be used. Fruitful areas of investigation include: provision of climate information to identify key target breeding traits and develop improved success criteria (e.g. for heat/drought stress); identification of those conditions under which multiple stress factors (for example, heat stress, mid-season drought stress, flowering drought stress, terminal drought stress) are important in breeding programmes; use of climate information to inform selection of trial sites; identification of the range of environments and locations under which crop trials should be performed (likely to be a wider range of environments than done at present); identification of appropriate duration of trials (likely to be longer than current trials, due to the importance of capturing extreme events); and definition of appropriate methods for incorporating climate information into crop breeding programmes, depending on the specific needs of the breeding programme and the strengths and weaknesses of available approaches. Better knowledge is needed on climate-related thresholds important to crop breeders, for example on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events relevant to the product profile, or to help provide tailored climate analyses (particularly for extreme events). The uncertainties inherent in climate and impact projections provide a particular challenge for translating climate science into actionable outcomes for agriculture. Further work is needed to explore relevant social and economic assumptions such as the level and distribution of real incomes, changing consumption patterns, health impacts, impacts on markets and trade, and the impact of legislation relating to conservation, the environment and climate change

Stochastic assembly in a subtropical forest chronosequence: evidence from contrasting changes of species, phylogenetic and functional dissimilarity over succession

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this recordDeterministic and stochastic processes jointly determine the community dynamics of forest succession. However, it has been widely held in previous studies that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. Furthermore, inference of mechanisms for community assembly may be misleading if based on a single axis of diversity alone. In this study, we evaluated the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes along a disturbance gradient by integrating species, functional, and phylogenetic beta diversity in a subtropical forest chronosequence in Southeastern China. We found a general pattern of increasing species turnover, but little-to-no change in phylogenetic and functional turnover over succession at two spatial scales. Meanwhile, the phylogenetic and functional beta diversity were not significantly different from random expectation. This result suggested a dominance of stochastic assembly, contrary to the general expectation that deterministic processes dominate forest succession. On the other hand, we found significant interactions of environment and disturbance and limited evidence for significant deviations of phylogenetic or functional turnover from random expectations for different size classes. This result provided weak evidence of deterministic processes over succession. Stochastic assembly of forest succession suggests that post-disturbance restoration may be largely unpredictable and difficult to control in subtropical forests.This study was supported financially by National Key Research and Development Project of China (2016YFC0500202) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31170401), and the Earthwatch Institute program “Quantify and monitor carbon pools and fluxes to assess the impact of climate change on subtropical forests under different anthropogenic disturbances”. NGS was supported by two NSF USA-China Dimensions of Biodiversity Grants (DEB - 1046113; DEB - 1241136)

Glibenclamide in the treatment for gestational diabetes mellitus in a compared study to insulin

OBJECTIVES: To study glibenclamide as a treatment for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and its impact on newborn birth weight and neonatal glycemia as compared to insulin. METHODS: A randomized and open-label clinical trial, conducted from October 1st, 2003 to March 8, 2005. Seventy-two pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus requiring drug therapy were randomized and allocated into two groups - insulin and glibenclamide. RESULTS: The general characteristics in both groups were similar, except for the results of the 75 g OGTT, which were higher in the glibenclamide group (p= 0.02). Maternal fasting and postprandial glucose levels presented no difference. Six (18.75%) pregnant women received the maximum dose of glibenclamide with no glycemic control. The birth weight was higher in the group treated with glibenclamide (p= 0.01), and the incidence of macrosomic newborns statistically different (p= 0.01). Neonatal hypoglycemia was more frequent (p= 0.01) in newborns of glibenclamide group, with one single case of persistent hypoglycemia. CONCLUSION: Glibenclamide can be the first line drug for glycemic control in most GDM patients. The birth weight and incidence of hypoglycemia were higher in the glibenclamide group, but with one single case of persistent hypoglycemia that required intravenous infusion of glucose.OBJETIVOS: Estudar a glibenclamida no tratamento do diabete melito gestacional (DMG) e sua repercussão no peso e na glicemia do recém-nascido (RN), em comparação com a insulina. MÉTODOS: Ensaio clínico randomizado e aberto, realizado entre 1º de outubro de 2003 e 8 de março de 2005. Foram sujeitas 72 gestantes com DMG que necessitaram de terapêutica complementar, sendo randomizadas em dois grupos: insulina e glibenclamida. RESULTADOS: As características gerais nos grupos não apresentaram diferença estatística, com exceção dos resultados do TTOG 75 g, que apresentaram valores maiores no grupo da glibenclamida (p= 0,02). As glicemias médias maternas não apresentaram diferença. Seis (18,75%) gestantes atingiram a dose máxima de glibenclamida sem o controle glicêmico. O peso dos RNs foi maior no grupo tratado com glibenclamida (p= 0,01), com diferença na incidência de macrossômico (p= 0,01). A hipoglicemia neonatal estava mais presente (p= 0,01) nos RNs do grupo da glibenclamida, porém com apenas um caso de hipoglicemia persistente. CONCLUSÃO: A glibenclamida pode ser a droga de escolha para tratamento do DMG na maioria das pacientes.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) EPM Departamento de ObstetríciaMaternidade Darcy VargasUniversidade da Região de JoinvilleUNIFESP, EPM, Depto. de ObstetríciaSciEL

Predicting EQ-5D-5L crosswalk from the PROMIS-29 profile for the United Kingdom, France, and Germany

BACKGROUND: EQ-5D health state utilities (HSU) are commonly used in health economics to compute quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The EQ-5D, which is country-specific, can be derived directly or by mapping from self-reported health-related quality of life (HRQoL) scales such as the PROMIS-29 profile. The PROMIS-29 from the Patient Reported Outcome Measures Information System is a comprehensive assessment of self-reported health with excellent psychometric properties. We sought to find optimal models predicting the EQ-5D-5L crosswalk from the PROMIS-29 in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and compared the prediction performances with that of a US model. METHODS: We collected EQ-5D-5L and PROMIS-29 profiles and three samples representative of the general populations in the UK (n = 1509), France (n = 1501), and Germany (n = 1502). We used stepwise regression with backward selection to find the best models to predict the EQ-5D-5L crosswalk from all seven PROMIS-29 domains. We investigated the agreement between the observed and predicted EQ-5D-5L crosswalk in all three countries using various indices for the prediction performance, including Bland-Altman plots to examine the performance along the HSU continuum. RESULTS: The EQ-5D-5L crosswalk was best predicted in France (nRMSEFRA = 0.075, nMAEFRA = 0.052), followed by the UK (nRMSEUK = 0.076, nMAEUK = 0.053) and Germany (nRMSEGER = 0.079, nMAEGER = 0.051). The Bland-Altman plots show that the inclusion of higher-order effects reduced the overprediction of low HSU scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our models provide a valid method to predict the EQ-5D-5L crosswalk from the PROMIS-29 for the UK, France, and Germany

High-resolution computed tomography reconstructions of invertebrate burrow systems

The architecture of biogenic structures can be highly influential in determining species contributions to major soil and sediment processes, but detailed 3-D characterisations are rare and descriptors of form and complexity are lacking. Here we provide replicate high-resolution micro-focus computed tomography (μ-CT) data for the complete burrow systems of three co-occurring, but functionally contrasting, sediment-dwelling inter-tidal invertebrates assembled alone, and in combination, in representative model aquaria. These data (≤2,000 raw image slices aquarium−1, isotropic voxel resolution, 81 μm) provide reference models that can be used for the development of novel structural analysis routines that will be of value within the fields of ecology, pedology, geomorphology, palaeobiology, ichnology and mechanical engineering. We also envisage opportunity for those investigating transport networks, vascular systems, plant rooting systems, neuron connectivity patterns, or those developing image analysis or statistics related to pattern or shape recognition. The dataset will allow investigators to develop or test novel methodology and ideas without the need to generate a complete three-dimensional computation of exemplar architecture

Relationships between tree growth and weather extremes: spatial and interspecific comparisons in a temperate broadleaf forest

Three years of monthly growth increment data identified large interannual differences in growth rate across six contrasting species in a broadleaved, temperate forest with minimum management intervention (Wytham Woods, UK). Growth rates varied by species and canopy position, and were higher in canopy species. Growth rate in 2010 was up to 40% lower than in 2011 and 2012. This can best be explained as an effect of low temperature, which delayed the start of spring and the growing season. This had a greater impact on the growth of sub-canopy trees than that of canopy species. In temperate systems, late spring and summer is an important component of the whole growing season carbon balance because of long day length. In 2010 there were also periods of lower-than-average rainfall, which may additionally have constrained growth during the growing season. Fluctuations and seasonal changes in both temperature and rainfall are projected to continue, so we may expect to see increasing differences in growth and growth rates. A small effect of location relative to the nearest edge was also detected, with higher growth rates only found >50. m from the forest edge. The findings have implications for forest structure and productivity under climate change, and may thus inform current and future forest management

The exceptional abandonment of metal tools by North American hunter-gatherers, 3000 B.P.

Most prehistoric societies that experimented with copper as a tool raw material eventually abandoned stone as their primary medium for tool making. However, after thousands of years of experimentation with this metal, North American hunter-gatherers abandoned it and returned to the exclusive use of stone. Why? We experimentally confirmed that replica copper tools are inferior to stone ones when each is sourced in the same manner as their archaeological counterparts and subjected to identical tasks. Why, then, did copper consistently lead to more advanced metallurgy in most other areas of the world? We suggest that it was the unusual level of purity in the North American copper sourced by North American groups, and that naturally occurring alloys yielded sufficiently superior tools to encourage entry into the copper-bronze-iron continuum of tool manufacture in other parts of the world

Miniaturization optimized weapon killing power during the social stress of late pre-contact North America (AD 600-1600)

Before Europeans arrived to Eastern North America, prehistoric, indigenous peoples experienced a number of changes that culminated in the development of sedentary, maize agricultural lifeways of varying complexity. Inherent to these lifeways were several triggers of social stress including population nucleation and increase, intergroup conflict (warfare), and increased territoriality. Here, we examine whether this period of social stress co-varied with deadlier weaponry, specifically, the design of the most commonly found prehistoric archery component in late pre-contact North America: triangular stone arrow tips (TSAT). The examination of modern metal or carbon projectiles, arrows, and arrowheads has demonstrated that smaller arrow tips penetrate deeper into a target than do larger ones. We first experimentally confirm that this relationship applies to arrow tips made from stone hafted onto shafts made from wood. We then statistically assess a large sample (n = 742) of late pre-contact TSAT and show that these specimens are extraordinarily small. Thus, by miniaturizing their arrow tips, prehistoric people in Eastern North America optimized their projectile weaponry for maximum penetration and killing power in warfare and hunting. Finally, we verify that these functional advantages were selected across environmental and cultural boundaries. Thus, while we cannot and should not rule out stochastic, production economizing, or non-adaptive cultural processes as an explanation for TSAT, overall our results are consistent with the hypothesis that broad, socially stressful demographic changes in late pre-contact Eastern North America resulted in the miniaturization–and augmented lethality–of stone tools across the region

Systematic evaluation of patient-reported outcome (PRO) protocol content and reporting in UK cancer clinical trials: the EPiC study protocol.

Emerging evidence suggests that patient-reported outcome (PRO)-specific information may be omitted in trial protocols and that PRO results are poorly reported, limiting the use of PRO data to inform cancer care. This study aims to evaluate the standards of PRO-specific content in UK cancer trial protocols and their arising publications and to highlight examples of best-practice PRO protocol content and reporting where they occur. The objective of this study is to determine if these early findings are generalisable to UK cancer trials, and if so, how best we can bring about future improvements in clinical trials methodology to enhance the way PROs are assessed, managed and reported.Trials in which the primary end point is based on a PRO will have more complete PRO protocol and publication components than trials in which PROs are secondary end points.Completed National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Portfolio Cancer clinical trials (all cancer specialities/age-groups) will be included if they contain a primary/secondary PRO end point. The NIHR portfolio includes cancer trials, supported by a range of funders, adjudged as high-quality clinical research studies. The sample will be drawn from studies completed between 31 December 2000 and 1 March 2014 (n=1141) to allow sufficient time for completion of the final trial report and publication. Two reviewers will then review the protocols and arising publications of included trials to: (1) determine the completeness of their PRO-specific protocol content; (2) determine the proportion and completeness of PRO reporting in UK Cancer trials and (3) model factors associated with PRO protocol and reporting completeness and with PRO reporting proportion.The study was approved by the ethics committee at University of Birmingham (ERN_15-0311). Trial findings will be disseminated via presentations at local, national and international conferences, peer-reviewed journals and social media including the CPROR twitter account and UOB departmental website (http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/cpro0r)