Stochastic differential equations death rates models : the portuguese case

Mestrado Bolonha em Actuarial ScienceIn recent years, the increasing life expectancy of the world population (which is most commonly seen in first-world countries), due to increased availability to prescribed medication, quality of health care services and quantity of health care institutions, combined with a sharp decrease in birth rates along time has proven to be a challenging problem for governments worldwide. Both of these factors put at risk the sustainability of state funded welfare programs (e.g. social security) and also lead to a decrease in productivity, available workforce and tax revenue in the near future. With the tendency for these problems to worsen in the next decades, it is of paramount importance to estimate the extension of human life in order to analyse the severity of this phenomena. Stochastic differential equations have been used recently to model the evolution of death rates. In fact, such models have some advantages compared to the deterministic ones since we can input random environmental fluctuations and evaluate the uncertainty in forecasts. Instead of the usual cohort analysis, we propose a cross-sectional analysis of mortality by applying stochastic differential equations models, which we wish to model to the Portuguese population, describing death rates trends for all ages and for both genders. The main goal of this work is to apply and compare stochastic differential equations death rates models (Geometric Brownian motion, Stochastic Gompertz model) separately for each age and gender with independent standard Wiener processes and forecast Portuguese death rates until the year 2030.Nos últimos anos, o aumento da esperança média de vida da população mundial (que é habitualmente observada em países de primeiro mundo), devido ao aumento do acesso a medicamentos com receita médica, qualidade dos serviços relacionados com cuidados de saúde e quantidade de instituições de saúde, em conjunto com um forte decréscimo registado nas taxas de natalidade ao longo do tempo provou ser um problema desafiante para governos de todo o mundo. Estes fatores colocam em risco a sustentabilidade dos programas de assistência social financiados pelo Estado (como por exemplo a segurança social) e podem causar uma descida na produtividade, mão-de obra disponível e receita fiscal no futuro próximo. Com a tendência destes problemas agravarem-se nas próximas décadas, é da maior importância estimar o prolongamento da vida humana com a finalidade de analisar a gravidade dos fenómenos referidos. As equações diferenciais estocásticas têm vindo a ser usadas recentemente para modelar a evolução de taxas de mortalidade. De facto, este tipo de modelos apresentam algumas vantagens quando comparados aos modelos determinísticos, visto que podemos introduzir flutuações ambientais aleatórias e avaliar a incerteza nas previsões. Em vez da habitual análise por coorte, propomos uma análise transversal da mortalidade através da aplicação de modelos de equações diferenciais estocásticas, que desejamos modelar para a população portuguesa, descrevendo as tendências das taxas de mortalidade para todas as idades e para ambos os géneros. O principal objectivo deste trabalho ´e aplicar e comparar modelos de equaçõess diferenciais estocásticas de taxas de mortalidade (movimento Browniano Geom´etrico, modelo de Gompertz estoc´astico) separadamente para cada idade e género com processos de Wiener padrão independentes e efetuar as previsões das taxas de mortalidade portuguesas até ao ano 2030.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Stochastic differential equations death rates models : the Portuguese case

In recent years, the increasing life expectancy of the world’s population, due to increased availability of prescribed medication, quality of health care services, quantity of health care institutions and quality of life, combined with a sharp decrease in birth rates over time, has proven to be a challenging problem for governments worldwide (particularly in developed countries). Both of these factors put at risk the sustainability of state-funded welfare programs (e.g., social security) and also lead to a decrease in available workforce and tax revenue (including social benefit contributions) in the near future. With the tendency for these problems to worsen in the next decades (severity varies between countries), it is of paramount importance to estimate the extension of human life in order to analyse the severity of this phenomenon. Stochastic differential equations have been used recently to model the evolution of death rates. In fact, such models have some advantages when compared to the deterministic ones since we can input random environmental fluctuations and evaluate the uncertainty in forecasts. The main goal of this paper is to apply and compare stochastic differential equations death rate models separately for each age and sex and forecast Portuguese death rates until the year 2030.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

S2P: A software tool to quickly carry out reproducible biomedical research projects involving 2D-gel and MALDI-TOF MS protein data

Background and objective 2D-gel electrophoresis is widely used in combination with MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry in order to analyze the proteome of biological samples. For instance, it can be used to discover proteins that are differentially expressed between two groups (e.g. two disease conditions, case vs. control, etc.) thus obtaining a set of potential biomarkers. This procedure requires a great deal of data processing in order to prepare data for analysis or to merge and integrate data from different sources. This kind of work is usually done manually (e.g. copying and pasting data into spreadsheet files), which is highly time consuming and distracts the researcher from other important, core tasks. Moreover, engaging in a repetitive process in a non-automated, handling-based manner is prone to error, thus threatening reliability and reproducibility. The objective of this paper is to present S2P, an open source software to overcome these drawbacks. Methods S2P is implemented in Java on top of the AIBench framework, and relies on well-established open source libraries to accomplish different tasks. Results S2P is an AIBench based desktop multiplatform application, specifically aimed to process 2D-gel and MALDI-mass spectrometry protein identification-based data in a computer-aided, reproducible manner. Different case studies are presented in order to show the usefulness of S2P. Conclusions S2P is open source and free to all users at http://www.sing-group.org/s2p. Through its user-friendly GUI interface, S2P dramatically reduces the time that researchers need to invest in order to prepare data for analysis.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. TIN2013-47153-C3-3-RXunta de GaliciaFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BD/109201/2015Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia | Ref. SFRH/BD/120537/201

Comparison of different flexibility training methods and specific warm-up on repetition maximum volume in lower limb exercises with female jazz dancers

Introduction: Some evidences show that stretching exercises prior to a strength training session can result in decrease of performance. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the acute effect of different stretching protocols in the lower limbs using the sum of repetition maximum (RM) performed before a strength training session. Material and methods: The sample consisted of ten female jazz dancers (age: 24.7 ± 7.84 years), with no experience in strength training. Six visits were conducted in which participants were subjected to 10-RM test, 10-RM retest and four different warm-up protocols: specific warm-up, static stretching, proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation and ballistic stretching. Results: The results obtained in this study showed that in the squat exercise in the Smith machine, the ballistic stretching protocol had a significantly higher volume compared to all other protocols, while the PNF had a significantly higher volume in comparison with the specific warm-up protocol and static stretching protocol (p < 0.05). However, in the leg extension, there were no significant differences in the total volume of maximum repetitions between protocols. Conclusion: Ballistic stretching was the most effective protocol to increase the levels of muscle strength in female jazz dancers

Planta de hidrotratamento de gasóleos diesel S10

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Química, 2019.O projeto em questão consiste numa planta de dessulfurização de gasóleo obtido por destilação atmosférica de petróleo. A planta foi projetada com o intuito de ser anexada a uma refinaria já operante, com foco em atender a legislação ambiental, reduzindo o teor de compostos sulfurados a 10 ppm e nitrogenados a 200 ppm. A planta consiste resumidamente em três partes: uma unidade de dessulfurização a partir do hidrotratamento de Gasóleo com reciclo de gás rico em Hidrogênio, uma unidade de reaproveitamento de gás rico em gás Hidrogênio e outra unidade de destilação do gasóleo (stripping), a fim de separá-lo dos componentes leves que estavam a ele misturados

Study of the B−→Λc+Λˉc−K−B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-} decay

The decay $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ is studied in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment. In the $\Lambda_{c}^+ K^{-}$ system, the $\Xi_{c}(2930)^{0}$ state observed at the BaBar and Belle experiments is resolved into two narrower states, $\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}$ and $\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}$, whose masses and widths are measured to be $$m(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = 2924.5 \pm 0.4 \pm 1.1 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ m(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = 2938.5 \pm 0.9 \pm 2.3 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = \phantom{000}4.8 \pm 0.9 \pm 1.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},\\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = \phantom{00}11.0 \pm 1.9 \pm 7.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},$$ where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. The results are consistent with a previous LHCb measurement using a prompt $\Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ sample. Evidence of a new $\Xi_{c}(2880)^{0}$ state is found with a local significance of $3.8\,\sigma$, whose mass and width are measured to be $2881.8 \pm 3.1 \pm 8.5\,\mathrm{MeV}$ and $12.4 \pm 5.3 \pm 5.8 \,\mathrm{MeV}$, respectively. In addition, evidence of a new decay mode $\Xi_{c}(2790)^{0} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ is found with a significance of $3.7\,\sigma$. The relative branching fraction of $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ with respect to the $B^{-} \to D^{+} D^{-} K^{-}$ decay is measured to be $2.36 \pm 0.11 \pm 0.22 \pm 0.25$, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third originates from the branching fractions of charm hadron decays.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-028.html (LHCb public pages