Stability Switches and Hopf Bifurcation in a Kaleckian Model of Business Cycle

This paper considers a Kaleckian type model of business cycle based on a nonlinear delay differential equation, whose associated characteristic equation is a transcendental equation with delay dependent coefficients. Using the conventional analysis introduced by Beretta and Kuang (2002), we show that the unique equilibrium can be destabilized through a Hopf bifurcation and stability switches may occur. Then some properties of Hopf bifurcation such as direction, stability, and period are determined by the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem

Computing the survival probability in the Madan-Unal credit risk model: application to the CDS market

We obtain a quasi-analytical approximation of the survival probability in the credit risk model proposed in [Madan, D.B. and Unal, H., Pricing the risk of default. Rev. Deriv. Res., 1998, 2(2), 121--160]. Such a formula, which extensive numerical simulations reveal to be accurate and computationally fast, can also be employed for pricing credit default swaps (CDSs). Specifically, we derive a quasi-analytical approximate expression for CDS par spreads, and we use it to estimate the parameters of the model. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical and real market data

Score-Driven Modeling with Jumps: An Application to S&P500 Returns and Options

We introduce a novel score-driven model with two sources of shock, allowing for both time-varying volatility and jumps. A theoretical investigation is performed which yields sufficient conditions to ensure stationarity and ergodicity. We extend the model to consider a time-varying jump intensity. Both an in-sample and an out-of-sample analysis based on the S&P500 time series show that the proposed methodology provides excellent agreement with observed returns, outperforming more standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications with jumps. Finally, we apply our models to option pricing via risk neutralization. Results show this novel approach produces reliable implied volatility surfaces. Supplementary Materials including proofs, the derivation of the conditional Fisher information, and two figures showing additional empirical results are available onlin

Investor reaction to IFRS for financial instruments in Europe:the role of firm-specific factors

We examine the market reaction to events related to the standard-setting process of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 for over 3,000 European firms that have adopted IFRS. We find that the market reaction to IFRS 9 is largely affected by firm-specific factors associated with information quality and information asymmetry. In particular, lower information asymmetry and higher information quality have a positive effect on market-adjusted returns. This is in conflict with the common view that IFRS 9 will improve accounting quality for those firms that need it most (namely, small firms with low liquidity and concentrated ownership structure)