24 research outputs found
Dopamine, affordance and active inference.
The role of dopamine in behaviour and decision-making is often cast in terms of reinforcement learning and optimal decision theory. Here, we present an alternative view that frames the physiology of dopamine in terms of Bayes-optimal behaviour. In this account, dopamine controls the precision or salience of (external or internal) cues that engender action. In other words, dopamine balances bottom-up sensory information and top-down prior beliefs when making hierarchical inferences (predictions) about cues that have affordance. In this paper, we focus on the consequences of changing tonic levels of dopamine firing using simulations of cued sequential movements. Crucially, the predictions driving movements are based upon a hierarchical generative model that infers the context in which movements are made. This means that we can confuse agents by changing the context (order) in which cues are presented. These simulations provide a (Bayes-optimal) model of contextual uncertainty and set switching that can be quantified in terms of behavioural and electrophysiological responses. Furthermore, one can simulate dopaminergic lesions (by changing the precision of prediction errors) to produce pathological behaviours that are reminiscent of those seen in neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease. We use these simulations to demonstrate how a single functional role for dopamine at the synaptic level can manifest in different ways at the behavioural level
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Evaluation of boundary-layer type in a weather forecast model utilizing long-term Doppler lidar observations
Many studies evaluating model boundary-layer schemes focus either on near-surface parameters or on short-term observational campaigns. This reflects the observational datasets that are widely available for use in model evaluation. In this paper we show how surface and long-term Doppler lidar observations, combined in a way to match model representation of the boundary layer as closely as possible, can be used to evaluate the skill of boundary-layer forecasts. We use a 2-year observational dataset from a rural site in the UK to evaluate a climatology of boundary layer type forecast by the UK Met Office Unified Model. In addition, we demonstrate the use of a binary skill score (Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index) to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on season, horizontal resolution and forecast leadtime. A clear diurnal and seasonal cycle can be seen in the climatology of both the model and observations, with the main discrepancies being the model overpredicting cumulus capped and decoupled stratocumulus capped boundary-layers and underpredicting well mixed boundary-layers. Using the SEDI skill score the model is most skillful at predicting the surface stability. The skill of the model in predicting cumulus capped and stratocumulus capped stable boundary layer forecasts is low but greater than a 24 hr persistence forecast. In contrast, the prediction of decoupled boundary-layers and boundary-layers with multiple cloud layers is lower than persistence. This process based evaluation approach has the potential to be applied to other boundary-layer parameterisation schemes with similar decision structures