Harnessing Opportunities in Non-Animal Asthma Research for a 21st-Century Science

The incidence of asthma is on the increase and calls for research are growing, yet asthma is a disease that scientists are still trying to come to grips with. Asthma research has relied heavily on animal use; however, in light of increasingly robust in vitro and computational models and the need to more fully incorporate the ‘Three Rs’ principles of Replacement, Reduction and Refinement, is it time to reassess the asthma research paradigm? Progress in non-animal research techniques is reaching a level where commitment and integration are necessary. Many scientists believe that progress in this field rests on linking disciplines to make research directly translatable from the bench to the clinic; a ‘21st-century’ scientific approach to address age-old questions

Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Towards the Just and Sustainable Use of Antibiotics

The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant pathogens poses a big challenge to policy-makers, who need to oversee the transformation of health systems that evolved to provide easy access to these drugs into ones that encourage appropriate use of antimicrobials, whilst reducing the risk of resistance. This is a particular challenge for low and middle-income countries with pluralistic health systems where antibiotics are available in a number of different markets. This review paper considers access and use of antibiotics in these countries from a complex adaptive system perspective. It highlights the main areas of intervention that could provide the key to addressing the sustainable long term use and availability of antibiotics. A focus on the synergies between interventions addressing access strategies, antibiotic quality, diagnostics for low-resource settings, measures to encourage just and sustainable decision making and help seeking optimal therapeutic and dosing strategies are key levers for the sustainable future of antibiotic use. Successful integration of such strategies will be dependent on effective governance mechanisms, effective partnerships and coalition building and accurate evaluation systems at national, regional and global levels

The digital revolution takes on global challenges. 100 digital social innovations transforming Latin America

The exponential growth of information and communication technologies and the diminishing digital divide, coupled with the emerging collaborative economy and the power of collective intelligence generated by online platforms, are key factors for socioeconomic and political development. The immediacy with which information can be circulated and the speed in which data is transformed into intelligence has given rise to new trends and innovative business models across sectors. In this context, digital social innovation has emerged, offering a fertile landscape to generate and scale up the systemic solutions needed to achieve the ambitious sustainable development goals (SDGs). This report compiles 100 digital social innovations that are already generating a positive impact across Latin America in each of the areas covered by the SDGs. The digital era has enabled many people to access resources and services that were previously out of their reach as well as reduce transaction costs. This has paved the way to reach a far greater number of beneficiaries than those reached by traditional social innovation initiatives. It provides a great opportunity for disruptive and scalable solutions to the most critical challenges the region continues to face in education, health, poverty and inequality.ITESO, A.C

Optoacoustic solitons in Bragg gratings

Optical gap solitons, which exist due to a balance of nonlinearity and dispersion due to a Bragg grating, can couple to acoustic waves through electrostriction. This gives rise to a new species of ``gap-acoustic'' solitons (GASs), for which we find exact analytic solutions. The GAS consists of an optical pulse similar to the optical gap soliton, dressed by an accompanying phonon pulse. Close to the speed of sound, the phonon component is large. In subsonic (supersonic) solitons, the phonon pulse is a positive (negative) density variation. Coupling to the acoustic field damps the solitons' oscillatory instability, and gives rise to a distinct instability for supersonic solitons, which may make the GAS decelerate and change direction, ultimately making the soliton subsonic.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Prioritisation of companion dog welfare issues using expert consensus

Resources for tackling animal welfare issues are often limited. Obtaining a consensus of expert opinion on the most pressing issues to address is a valuable approach to try to ensure that resources are wisely spent. In this study, seven independent experts in a range of disciplines (including veterinary medicine, animal behaviour and welfare science and ethics) were consulted on the relative prioritisation of welfare issues impacting companion dogs in Great Britain. Experts first anonymously ranked the priority of 37 welfare issues, pre-defined from a literature review and an earlier published survey. In a subsequent two-day panel workshop, experts refined these issues into 25 composite groups and used specific criteria to agree their relative priorities as a Welfare Problem (WP; incorporating numbers of dogs affected, severity, duration and counter-balancing benefits) and a Strategic Priority (SP; a combination of WP and tractability). Other criteria — anthropogenicity, ethical significance and confidence in the issue-relevant evidence — were also discussed by the panel. Issues that scored highly for both WP and SP were: inappropriate husbandry, lack of owner knowledge, undesirable behaviours, inherited disease, inappropriate socialisation and habituation and conformation-related disorders. Other welfare issues, such as obese and overweight dogs, were judged as being important for welfare (WP) but not strategic priorities (SP), due to the expert-perceived difficulties in their management and resolution. This information can inform decisions on where future resources can most cost-effectively be targeted, to bring about the greatest improvement in companion dog welfare in Great Britain

Wildlife population assessment : changing priorities driven by technological advances

TAM’s time for this review was covered under the ACCURATE project, funded by the US Navy Living Marine Resources program (contract no. N3943019C2176), and he also thanks partial support by CEAUL (funded by FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal, through the project UIDB/00006/2020).Advances in technology are having a large effect on the priorities for innovation in statistical ecology. Collaborations between statisticians and ecologists have always been important in driving methodological development, but increasingly, expertise from computer scientists and engineers is also needed. We discuss changes that are occurring and that may occur in the future in surveys for estimating animal abundance. As technology advances, we expect classical distance sampling and capture-recapture to decrease in importance, as camera (still and video) survey, acoustic survey, spatial capture-recapture and genetic methods continue to develop and find new applications. We explore how these changes are impacting the work of the statistical ecologist.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Echolocation detections and digital video surveys provide reliable estimates of the relative density of harbour porpoises

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Erik Rexstad and Rob Williams for useful reviews of this manuscript. The collection of visual and acoustic data was funded by the UK Department of Energy & Climate Change, the Scottish Government, Collaborative Offshore Wind Research into the Environment (COWRIE) and Oil & Gas UK. Digital aerial surveys were funded by Moray Offshore Renewables Ltd and additional funding for analysis of the combined datasets was provided by Marine Scotland. Collaboration between the University of Aberdeen and Marine Scotland was supported by MarCRF. We thank colleagues at the University of Aberdeen, Moray First Marine, NERI, Hi-Def Aerial Surveying Ltd and Ravenair for essential support in the field, particularly Tim Barton, Bill Ruck, Rasmus Nielson and Dave Rutter. Thanks also to Andy Webb, David Borchers, Len Thomas, Kelly McLeod, David L. Miller, Dinara Sadykova and Thomas Cornulier for advice on survey design and statistical approache. Data Accessibility Data are available from the Dryad Digital Repository: http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.cf04gPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Using density surface models to estimate spatio-temporal changes in population densities and trend

Funding – Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews and U.S. Geological Survey provided funding for this analysis through a studentship to RJC.Precise measures of population abundance and trend are needed for species conservation; these are most difficult to obtain for rare and rapidly changing populations. We compare uncertainty in densities estimated from spatio–temporal models with that from standard design‐based methods. Spatio–temporal models allow us to target priority areas where, and at times when, a population may most benefit. Generalised additive models were fitted to a 31‐year time series of point‐transect surveys of an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, the Hawai'i ‘ākepa Loxops coccineus. This allowed us to estimate bird densities over space and time. We used two methods to quantify uncertainty in density estimates from the spatio–temporal model: the delta method (which assumes independence between detection and distribution parameters) and a variance propagation method. With the delta method we observed a 52% decrease in the width of the design‐based 95% confidence interval (CI), while we observed a 37% decrease in CI width when propagating the variance. We mapped bird densities as they changed across space and time, allowing managers to evaluate management actions. Integrating detection function modelling with spatio–temporal modelling exploits survey data more efficiently by producing finer‐grained abundance estimates than are possible with design‐based methods as well as producing more precise abundance estimates. Model‐based approaches require switching from making assumptions about the survey design to assumptions about bird distribution. Such a switch warrants carefully considered. In this case the model‐based approach benefits conservation planning through improved management efficiency and reduced costs by taking into account both spatial shifts and temporal changes in population abundance and distribution.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

A revision of the British Chronostratigraphy within the Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle based on new evidence from Arclid, Cheshire UK

Of the 24 Greenland interstadials (GI) in the Last Glacial-interglacial cycle (LGIC) only five are conventionally recognised in Britain. This paper aims to improve understanding of the LGIC in Britain from a site at Arclid, Cheshire. Sediments were characterised and luminescence used to establish a chronology. This found that the Chelford Sand Formation spans 77-47 ka with sand deposited initially by aeolian but later by fluvial transportation. Coleoptera and Diptera from the basal peat lens provided a reconstruction for a heather-rich heathland environment grazed by large herbivores, with summer temperatures between 13-18° C, and winter temperatures between -14 and 1°C. Flies included the earliest records of the blood-sucking horsefly Haematopota pluvialis, and the soldierfly Chloromyia formosa. The overlying Stockport Sand Formation was deposited fluvioglacially between 47-41 ka with the upper Stockport Till formed by the advance of the last British icesheet after ~33 ka. Stenothermic beetle analysis from Arclid indicate similarities with results from other British mid LGIC sites, some of which are at or beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating and may be of a similar age to Arclid. Basal organic sediments found at Arclid along with other reassigned sites are proposed as a new Arclid Interstadial. A revised British LGIC chronostratigraphy has the Wretton, Chelford and Brimpton Interstadials and the previously suggested but not widely recognised Cassington Interstadial. The Arclid Interstadial occurred after these, but prior to the Upton Warren Interstadial complex. This closes the previous gap in interstadials between the Brimpton Interstadial and the Upton Warren Interstadial complex within the British chronostratigraphy