Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings: A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions: We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summar

Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population

Background: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (<10%), 19% (14%) at intermediate (≥10–<20%), and 11% (6%) at high (≥20%) 10-year CVD (CHD) risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies

Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background: Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings: A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions: We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Comparative Effectiveness of Guidelines for the Management of Hyperlipidemia and Hypertension for Type 2 Diabetes Patients

Background: Several guidelines to reduce cardiovascular risk in diabetes patients exist in North America, Europe, and Australia. Their ability to achieve this goal efficiently is unclear. Methods and Findings: Decision analysis was used to compare the efficiency and effectiveness of international contemporary guidelines for the management of hypertension and hyperlipidemia for patients aged 40-80 with type 2 diabetes. Measures of comparative effectiveness included the expected probability of a coronary or stroke event, incremental medication costs per event, and number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent an event. All guidelines are equally effective, but they differ significantly in their medication costs. The range of NNT to prevent an event was small across guidelines (6.5-7.6 for males and 6.5-7.5 for females); a larger range of differences were observed for expected cost per event avoided (ranges, $117,269-$157,186 for males and $115,999-$163,775 for females). Australian and U.S. guidelines result in the highest and lowest expected costs, respectively. Conclusions: International guidelines based on the same evidence and seeking the same goal are similar in their effectiveness; however, there are large differences in expected medication costs. © 2011 Shah et al

Cardiovascular disease by diabetes status in five ethnic minority groups compared to ethnic Norwegians

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The population in Norway has become multi-ethnic due to migration from Asia and Africa over the recent decades. The aim of the present study was to explore differences in the self-reported prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated risk factors by diabetes status in five ethnic minority groups compared to ethnic Norwegians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pooled data from three population-based cross-sectional studies conducted in Oslo between 2000 and 2002 was used. Of 54,473 invited individuals 24,749 (45.4%) participated. The participants self-reported health status, underwent a clinical examination and blood samples were drawn. A total of 17,854 individuals aged 30 to 61 years born in Norway, Sri-Lanka, Pakistan, Iran, Vietnam or Turkey were included in the study. Chi-square tests, one-way ANOVAs, ANCOVAs, multiple and logistic regression were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age- and gender-standardized prevalence of self-reported CVD varied between 5.8% and 8.2% for the ethnic minority groups, compared to 2.9% among ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.001). Prevalence of self-reported diabetes varied from 3.0% to 15.0% for the ethnic minority groups versus 1.8% for ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.001). Among individuals without diabetes, the CVD prevalence was 6.0% versus 2.6% for ethnic minorities and Norwegians, respectively (p < 0.001). Corresponding CVD prevalence rates among individuals with diabetes were 15.3% vs. 12.6% (p = 0.364). For individuals without diabetes, the odds ratio (OR) for CVD in the ethnic minority groups remained significantly higher (range 1.5-2.6) than ethnic Norwegians (p < 0.05), after adjustment for age, gender, education, employment, and body height, except for Turkish individuals. Regardless of diabetes status, obesity and physical inactivity were prevalent in the majority of ethnic minority groups, whereas systolic- and diastolic- blood pressures were higher in Norwegians. In nearly all ethnic groups, individuals with diabetes had higher triglycerides, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index compared to individuals without diabetes. Age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and WHR were significant predictors of CVD in both ethnic Norwegians and ethnic minorities, but significant ethnic differences were found for age, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Ethnic differences in the prevalence of CVD were prominent for individuals without diabetes. Primary CVD prevention including identification of undiagnosed diabetes should be prioritized for ethnic minorities without known diabetes.</p

Predictors of Health-Related Quality of Life in Patients at Risk for Cardiovascular Disease in European Primary Care

Contains fulltext : 96207.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk management plays an important role in primary care. In patients at high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) lifestyle and, where appropriate, medical interventions are recommended in guidelines. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important outcome in clinical practice. This study aimed to assess the HRQoL of this patient group and to investigate the impact of both patients' characteristics and practice quality scores on their assessments of HRQoL. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An observational study in 218 general practices from 8 European countries was conducted. 2142 patients at risk for CVD (33.5% female) with a mean age of 66.3 (SD 9.1) years completed a questionnaire including the EQ-5D instrument and provided data from medical record. Validated quality indicators of general practices were assessed using practice questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. A hierarchical multilevel analysis was performed to identify predictors of EQ-5D scores at patient and practice level. The mean EQ-5D score was 0.78 (SD 0.19). Female gender (r = -0.03, p<0.0016), age (r = -0.01, p = 0.0387) and lower educational level (r = -0.03, p<0.0001) were correlated negatively with EQ-5D scores. Clinically more important was the correlation of HRQoL with the frequency of practice contacts (r = -0.12, p<0.0001) and the number of uncontrolled risk factors (r = -0.01, p<0.0039). Medication adherence (r = 0.032, p<0.0001), and physical activity (r = 0.02, p<0.0001) were identified as positive predictors of HRQoL. The EUPROPEP-score category 'organization' (r = 0.02, p<0.0001) was positively related to EQ-5D scores, whereas other practice scores were not correlated to EQ-5D-scores. CONCLUSIONS: In patients at risk for CVD, good medication adherence, regular physical activity, controlling of biomedical risk factor levels and patient-centered practice organization have been shown to be positively correlated to HRQoL and should therefore be targeted in interventions not only to reduce morbidity but also to sustain or even to ameliorate HRQoL

Development and pilot of an internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management in European primary care

Contains fulltext : 97806.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Primary care can play an important role in providing cardiovascular risk management in patients with established Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD), patients with a known high risk of developing CVD, and potentially for individuals with a low risk of developing CVD, but who have unhealthy lifestyles. To describe and compare cardiovascular risk management, internationally valid quality indicators and standardized measures are needed. As part of a large project in 9 European countries (EPA-Cardio), we have developed and tested a set of standardized measures, linked to previously developed quality indicators. METHODS: A structured stepwise procedure was followed to develop measures. First, the research team allocated 106 validated quality indicators to one of the three target populations (established CVD, at high risk, at low risk) and to different data-collection methods (data abstraction from the medical records, a patient survey, an interview with lead practice GP/a practice survey). Secondly, we selected a number of other validated measures to enrich the assessment. A pilot study was performed to test the feasibility. Finally, we revised the measures based on the findings. RESULTS: The EPA-Cardio measures consisted of abstraction forms from the medical-records data of established Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)-patients--and high-risk groups, a patient questionnaire for each of the 3 groups, an interview questionnaire for the lead GP and a questionnaire for practice teams. The measures were feasible and accepted by general practices from different countries. CONCLUSIONS: An internationally standardized measure of cardiovascular risk management, linked to validated quality indicators and tested for feasibility in general practice, is now available. Careful development and pilot testing of the measures are crucial in international studies of quality of healthcare