Early Identification of Violent Criminal Gang Members

Gang violence is a major problem in the United States accounting for a large fraction of homicides and other violent crime. In this paper, we study the problem of early identification of violent gang members. Our approach relies on modified centrality measures that take into account additional data of the individuals in the social network of co-arrestees which together with other arrest metadata provide a rich set of features for a classification algorithm. We show our approach obtains high precision and recall (0.89 and 0.78 respectively) in the case where the entire network is known and out-performs current approaches used by law-enforcement to the problem in the case where the network is discovered overtime by virtue of new arrests - mimicking real-world law-enforcement operations. Operational issues are also discussed as we are preparing to leverage this method in an operational environment.Comment: SIGKDD 201

Manipulating Permeability as a Process for Controlling Crime: Balancing Security and Sustainability in Local Contexts

In response to the sustainability agenda, planning policy in the UK, USA and Australia has shifted to promote compact, high-density, mixed-used residential developments in walkable and permeable street networks close to public transport (Commonwealth of Australia, 1995; DETR, 1998; American Planning Association, 2007). This is to encourage walking and the use of public transport and to reduce car-use, energy use, pollution, congestion and urban sprawl. However, although permeability is assumed to represent a positive built environment feature which reduces crime by promoting more "eyes on the street" (Jacobs, 1961), a significant body of research in the field of environmental criminology challenges this assumptions. This paper reviews the theories and evidence associated with permeability and crime.Pedestrian access ways (PAWs) are often associated with crime and this paper discusses research which was directed at providing practical guidance to local governments on how they could better manage existing PAWs in Western Australia (WA). A morphological analysis of existing PAWs was undertaken which analysed the purposes, roles, functionality, users and dynamics of PAWs in a variety of different settings. In addition to crime (which had commonly be used as an excuse to close PAWs), the research considered issues such as amenity, walkability, equity and sustainability. A suite of five tools for assessing and reducing crime risk were developed, which attempt to balance security and sustainability issues. Contrary to assumptions, most PAWs were not subject to high levels of crime and many were vital to the community. Intriguingly, findings indicated that neighbourhood permeability can potentially be manipulated (via the management, closure or construction of new PAWs) to achieve the desired outcomes of reducing crime and of enhancing walkability, liveability and ultimately, the sustainability and well-being of communities

New urbanism, crime and the suburbs: a review of the evidence

Sustainability now influences government policy in the UK, Australia and USA and planning policy currently advocates high density, mixed-use residential developments in 'walkable', permeable neighbourhoods, close to public transport, employment and amenities. This clearly demonstrates the growing popularity, influence and application of New Urbanist ideas.This paper reviews the criminological research relating to New Urbanism associated with the three key issues of permeability, rear laneway car parking and mixed-use development. These key issues are discussed from an environmental criminology perspective and challenge New Urbanist assumptions concerning crime. The paper proposes that crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED) and its crime risk assessment model represents a valuable tool for New Urbanists to utilise to reduce opportunities for crime and tackle fear of crime in the community. Recommendations for future research and collaboration are discussed

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. We used data from an 8‐year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe, to show how geographic profiling—a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology—can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime. The data set contained information on over 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. We used a subset of data for which the illegal hunters’ identities were known. Our model identified the illegal hunters’ home villages based on the spatial locations of the hunting incidences (e.g., snares). Identification of the villages was improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the conservancy to reflect the fact that although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside the conservancy (in criminology terms, commuter crime). These results combined with rigorous simulations showed for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns, for example, where landscape heterogeneity means some parts of the study area are less likely to be used (e.g., aquatic areas for terrestrial animals) or where landscape permeability differs (e.g., forest bats tend not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target antipoaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently and to develop management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.TRAFFIC Southern and East Africa, the European Union, Wilderness Trust, Chicago Board of Trade, and the African Wildlife Conservation Fund.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1523-17392019-06-01hj2018Mammal Research InstituteZoology and Entomolog

In and around: identifying predictors of theft within and near to major mass underground transit systems

This article identifies factors that encourage or reduce pick-pocketing at underground rail stations through a case study analysis of the London Underground. Negative binomial Poisson regression models found predictor variables of pick-pocketing selected from the internal characteristics of stations and features of their nearby surroundings. Factors that increased risk were those associated with greater congestion inside stations including lifts, waiting rooms and fewer platforms; and increased levels of accessibility near stations, more paths and roads. Features that reduced risk were those likely to encourage detection and guardianship; stations with more personal validators, staffing levels and shop rentals; and the presence of more domestic buildings nearby. Station type was also influential; those that were ‘attractors’ of crime and those frequently used by tourists were at greater risk. The findings suggest a transmission of theft risk between the internal settings of underground stations and their nearby surroundings

Burglary in London: insights from statistical heterogeneous spatial point processes

To obtain operational insights regarding the crime of burglary in London, we consider the estimation of the effects of covariates on the intensity of spatial point patterns. Inspired by localized properties of criminal behaviour, we propose a spatial extension to mixtures of generalized linear models from the mixture modelling literature. The Bayesian model proposed is a finite mixture of Poisson generalized linear models such that each location is probabilistically assigned to one of the groups. Each group is characterized by the regression coefficients, which we subsequently use to interpret the localized effects of the covariates. By using a blocks structure of the study region, our approach enables specifying spatial dependence between nearby locations. We estimate the proposed model by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and we provide a Python implementation

Local inequality and crime: exploring how variation in the scale of the inequality measures affects relationships betweeen inequality and crime

There is considerable interest in the role of inequality in affecting social outcomes yet there is also uncertainty and disagreement about the appropriate scale at which to measure inequality within such analyses. Whilst some have argued for larger-area inequality measures to be used there are good theoretical, empirical and intuitive grounds to think that local inequality may have relevance as a driver of social ills. This paper explores whether differing understandings of ‘local’ inequality does—or can—matter and, if so, within which contexts this is the case. Contrasting findings across the two areas support the notion that local inequality does have relevance to social outcomes but that the socio-spatial context matters

Art as a Means to Disrupt Routine Use of Space

This paper examines the publicly visible aspects of counter-terrorism activity in pedestrian spaces as mechanisms of disruption. We discuss the objectives of counter-terrorism in terms of disruption of routine for both hostile actors and general users of public spaces, categorising the desired effects as 1) triangulation of attention; 2) creation of unexpected performance; and 3) choreographing of crowd flow. We review the potential effects of these existing forms of disruption used in counter-terrorism. We then present a palette of art, advertising, architecture, and entertainment projects that offer examples of the same disruption effects of triangulation, performance and flow. We conclude by reviewing the existing support for public art in counter-terrorism policy, and build on the argument for art as an important alternative to authority. We suggest that while advocates of authority-based disruption might regard the playfulness of some art as a weakness, the unexpectedness it offers is perhaps a key strengt

Non-L\'evy mobility patterns of Mexican Me'Phaa peasants searching for fuelwood

We measured mobility patterns that describe walking trajectories of individual Me'Phaa peasants searching and collecting fuelwood in the forests of "La Monta\~na de Guerrero" in Mexico. These one-day excursions typically follow a mixed pattern of nearly-constant steps when individuals displace from their homes towards potential collecting sites and a mixed pattern of steps of different lengths when actually searching for fallen wood in the forest. Displacements in the searching phase seem not to be compatible with L\'evy flights described by power-laws with optimal scaling exponents. These findings however can be interpreted in the light of deterministic searching on heavily degraded landscapes where the interaction of the individuals with their scarce environment produces alternative searching strategies than the expected L\'evy flights. These results have important implications for future management and restoration of degraded forests and the improvement of the ecological services they may provide to their inhabitants.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. First version submitted to Human Ecology. The final publication will be available at http://www.springerlink.co

A demographic and epidemiological study of a Mexican chiropractic college public clinic

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Descriptive studies of chiropractic patients are not new, several have been performed in the U.S., Australia, Canada, and Europe. None have been performed in a Latin American country. The purpose of this study is to describe the patients who visited a Mexican chiropractic college public clinic with respect to demographics and clinical characteristics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study was reviewed and approved by the IRB of Parker College of Chiropractic and the Universidad Estatal del Valle de Ecatepec (UNEVE). Five hundred patient files from the UNEVE public clinic from May 2005 to May 2007 were selected from an approximate total number of 3,700. Information was collected for demographics, chief complaints, associated complaints, and previous care sought.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The sample comprised 306 (61.2%) female. Most files (44.2%) were in the age range of 40–59 years (mean of 43.4 years). The most frequent complaints were lumbar pain (29.2%) and extremity pain (28.0%), most commonly the knee. Most (62.0%) described their complaints as greater than one year. Trauma (46.6%) was indicated as the initial cause. Mean VAS score was 6.26/10 with 20% rated at 8/10.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Demographic results compared closer to studies conducted with private clinicians (females within the ages of 40–59). The primary complaint and duration was similar to previous studies (low back pain and chronic), except in this population the cause was usually initiated by trauma. The most striking features were the higher number of extremity complaints and the marked increased level of VAS score (20% rated as 8/10).</p