Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

HIV prevalence and undiagnosed infection among a community sample of gay and bisexual men in Scotland, 2005-2011: implications for HIV testing policy and prevention

<b>Objective</b><p></p> To examine HIV prevalence, HIV testing behaviour, undiagnosed infection and risk factors for HIV positivity among a community sample of gay men in Scotland.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> Cross-sectional survey of gay and bisexual men attending commercial gay venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh, Scotland with voluntary anonymous HIV testing of oral fluid samples in 2011. A response rate of 65.2% was achieved (1515 participants).<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> HIV prevalence (4.8%, 95% confidence interval, CI 3.8% to 6.2%) remained stable compared to previous survey years (2005 and 2008) and the proportion of undiagnosed infection among HIV-positive men (25.4%) remained similar to that recorded in 2008. Half of the participants who provided an oral fluid sample stated that they had had an HIV test in the previous 12 months; this proportion is significantly higher when compared to previous study years (50.7% versus 33.8% in 2005, p<0.001). Older age (>25 years) was associated with HIV positivity (1.8% in those <25 versus 6.4% in older ages group) as was a sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis within the previous 12 months (adjusted odds ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.09–4.14). There was no significant association between age and having an STI or age and any of the sexual behaviours recorded.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b><p></p> HIV transmission continues to occur among gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Despite evidence of recent testing within the previous six months, suggesting a willingness to test, the current opt-out policy may have reached its limit with regards to maximising HIV test uptake. Novel strategies are required to improve regular testing opportunities and more frequent testing as there are implications for the use of other biomedical HIV interventions.<p></p&gt

Runs of homozygosity implicate autozygosity as a schizophrenia risk factor

Autozygosity occurs when two chromosomal segments that are identical from a common ancestor are inherited from each parent. This occurs at high rates in the offspring of mates who are closely related (inbreeding), but also occurs at lower levels among the offspring of distantly related mates. Here, we use runs of homozygosity in genome-wide SNP data to estimate the proportion of the autosome that exists in autozygous tracts in 9,388 cases with schizophrenia and 12,456 controls. We estimate that the odds of schizophrenia increase by ~17% for every 1% increase in genome-wide autozygosity. This association is not due to one or a few regions, but results from many autozygous segments spread throughout the genome, and is consistent with a role for multiple recessive or partially recessive alleles in the etiology of schizophrenia. Such a bias towards recessivity suggests that alleles that increase the risk of schizophrenia have been selected against over evolutionary time

One-sided versus two-sided stochastic descriptions

It is well-known that discrete-time finite-state Markov Chains, which are described by one-sided conditional probabilities which describe a dependence on the past as only dependent on the present, can also be described as one-dimensional Markov Fields, that is, nearest-neighbour Gibbs measures for finite-spin models, which are described by two-sided conditional probabilities. In such Markov Fields the time interpretation of past and future is being replaced by the space interpretation of an interior volume, surrounded by an exterior to the left and to the right. If we relax the Markov requirement to weak dependence, that is, continuous dependence, either on the past (generalising the Markov-Chain description) or on the external configuration (generalising the Markov-Field description), it turns out this equivalence breaks down, and neither class contains the other. In one direction this result has been known for a few years, in the opposite direction a counterexample was found recently. Our counterexample is based on the phenomenon of entropic repulsion in long-range Ising (or "Dyson") models.Comment: 13 pages, Contribution for "Statistical Mechanics of Classical and Disordered Systems

Genome-wide analyses for personality traits identify six genomic loci and show correlations with psychiatric disorders

Personality is influenced by genetic and environmental factors1 and associated with mental health. However, the underlying genetic determinants are largely unknown. We identified six genetic loci, including five novel loci2,3, significantly associated with personality traits in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (N = 123,132–260,861). Of these genomewide significant loci, extraversion was associated with variants in WSCD2 and near PCDH15, and neuroticism with variants on chromosome 8p23.1 and in L3MBTL2. We performed a principal component analysis to extract major dimensions underlying genetic variations among five personality traits and six psychiatric disorders (N = 5,422–18,759). The first genetic dimension separated personality traits and psychiatric disorders, except that neuroticism and openness to experience were clustered with the disorders. High genetic correlations were found between extraversion and attention-deficit– hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and between openness and schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. The second genetic dimension was closely aligned with extraversion–introversion and grouped neuroticism with internalizing psychopathology (e.g., depression or anxiety)

Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment

The past two decades have seen an upsurge of interest in the collective behaviors of complex systems composed of many agents entrained to each other and to external events. In this paper, we extend concepts of entrainment to the dynamics of human collective attention. We conducted a detailed investigation of the unfolding of human entrainment - as expressed by the content and patterns of hundreds of thousands of messages on Twitter - during the 2012 US presidential debates. By time locking these data sources, we quantify the impact of the unfolding debate on human attention. We show that collective social behavior covaries second-by-second to the interactional dynamics of the debates: A candidate speaking induces rapid increases in mentions of his name on social media and decreases in mentions of the other candidate. Moreover, interruptions by an interlocutor increase the attention received. We also highlight a distinct time scale for the impact of salient moments in the debate: Mentions in social media start within 5-10 seconds after the moment; peak at approximately one minute; and slowly decay in a consistent fashion across well-known events during the debates. Finally, we show that public attention after an initial burst slowly decays through the course of the debates. Thus we demonstrate that large-scale human entrainment may hold across a number of distinct scales, in an exquisitely time-locked fashion. The methods and results pave the way for careful study of the dynamics and mechanisms of large-scale human entrainment.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables, 4 supplementary figures. 2nd version revised according to peer reviewers' comments: more detailed explanation of the methods, and grounding of the hypothese

Genome-wide study of association and interaction with maternal cytomegalovirus infection suggests new schizophrenia loci.

Genetic and environmental components as well as their interaction contribute to the risk of schizophrenia, making it highly relevant to include environmental factors in genetic studies of schizophrenia. This study comprises genome-wide association (GWA) and follow-up analyses of all individuals born in Denmark since 1981 and diagnosed with schizophrenia as well as controls from the same birth cohort. Furthermore, we present the first genome-wide interaction survey of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and maternal cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. The GWA analysis included 888 cases and 882 controls, and the follow-up investigation of the top GWA results was performed in independent Danish (1396 cases and 1803 controls) and German-Dutch (1169 cases, 3714 controls) samples. The SNPs most strongly associated in the single-marker analysis of the combined Danish samples were rs4757144 in ARNTL (P=3.78 × 10(-6)) and rs8057927 in CDH13 (P=1.39 × 10(-5)). Both genes have previously been linked to schizophrenia or other psychiatric disorders. The strongest associated SNP in the combined analysis, including Danish and German-Dutch samples, was rs12922317 in RUNDC2A (P=9.04 × 10(-7)). A region-based analysis summarizing independent signals in segments of 100 kb identified a new region-based genome-wide significant locus overlapping the gene ZEB1 (P=7.0 × 10(-7)). This signal was replicated in the follow-up analysis (P=2.3 × 10(-2)). Significant interaction with maternal CMV infection was found for rs7902091 (P(SNP × CMV)=7.3 × 10(-7)) in CTNNA3, a gene not previously implicated in schizophrenia, stressing the importance of including environmental factors in genetic studies

A multicentre matched case control study of risk factors for Preeclampsia in healthy women in Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Preeclampsia is one of the leading causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality world-wide. The risk for developing preeclampsia varies depending on the underlying mechanism. Because the disorder is heterogeneous, the pathogenesis can differ in women with various risk factors. Understanding these mechanisms of disease responsible for preeclampsia as well as risk assessment is still a major challenge. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with preeclampsia, in healthy women in maternity hospitals of Karachi and Rawalpindi.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a hospital based matched case-control study to assess the factors associated with preeclampsia in Karachi and Rawalpindi, from January 2006 to December 2007. 131 hospital-reported cases of PE and 262 controls without history of preeclampsia were enrolled within 3 days of delivery. Cases and controls were matched on the hospital, day of delivery and parity. Potential risk factors for preeclampsia were ascertained during in-person postpartum interviews using a structured questionnaire and by medical record abstraction. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate matched odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In multivariate analysis, women having a family history of hypertension (adjusted OR 2.06, 95% CI; 1.27-3.35), gestational diabetes (adjusted OR 6.57, 95% CI; 1.94 -22.25), pre-gestational diabetes (adjusted OR 7.36, 95% CI; 1.37-33.66) and mental stress during pregnancy (adjusted OR 1.32; 95% CI; 1.19-1.46, for each 5 unit increase in Perceived stress scale score) were at increased risk of preeclampsia. However, high body mass index, maternal age, urinary tract infection, use of condoms prior to index pregnancy and sociodemographic factors were not associated with higher risk of having preeclampsia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Development of preeclampsia was associated with gestational diabetes, pregestational diabetes, family history of hypertension and mental stress during pregnancy. These factors can be used as a screening tool for preeclampsia prediction. Identification of the above mentioned predictors would enhance the ability to diagnose and monitor women likely to develop preeclampsia before the onset of disease for timely interventions and better maternal and fetal outcomes.</p

Extragalactic Radio Continuum Surveys and the Transformation of Radio Astronomy

Next-generation radio surveys are about to transform radio astronomy by discovering and studying tens of millions of previously unknown radio sources. These surveys will provide new insights to understand the evolution of galaxies, measuring the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate, and rivalling traditional techniques in the measurement of fundamental cosmological parameters. By observing a new volume of observational parameter space, they are also likely to discover unexpected new phenomena. This review traces the evolution of extragalactic radio continuum surveys from the earliest days of radio astronomy to the present, and identifies the challenges that must be overcome to achieve this transformational change.Comment: To be published in Nature Astronomy 18 Sept 201