Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.The Portuguese-based authors thank the FCT Strategic Project of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and the Project "BioEnv - Biotechnology and Bioengineering for a sustainable world", REF. NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000048, co-funded by the Programa Operacional Regional do Norte (ON.2 - O Novo Norte), QREN, FEDER

First integrative trend analysis for a great ape species in Borneo

For many threatened species the rate and drivers of population decline are difficult to assess accurately: species’ surveys are typically restricted to small geographic areas, are conducted over short time periods, and employ a wide range of survey protocols. We addressed methodological challenges for assessing change in the abundance of an endangered species. We applied novel methods for integrating field and interview survey data for the critically endangered Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus), allowing a deeper understanding of the species’ persistence through time. Our analysis revealed that Bornean orangutan populations have declined at a rate of 25% over the last 10 years. Survival rates of the species are lowest in areas with intermediate rainfall, where complex interrelations between soil fertility, agricultural productivity, and human settlement patterns influence persistence. These areas also have highest threats from human-wildlife conflict. Survival rates are further positively associated with forest extent, but are lower in areas where surrounding forest has been recently converted to industrial agriculture. Our study highlights the urgency of determining specific management interventions needed in different locations to counter the trend of decline and its associated drivers

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha‾¹ per year (95% CI 0.14—0.72, mean period 1988-2010) above-ground live biomass. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world's remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997-1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere

Measured greenhouse gas budgets challenge emission savings from palm-oil biodiesel

Special thanks to our field assistants in Indonesia (Basri, Bayu and Darwis) and to Frank Tiedemann, Edgar Tunsch, Dietmar Fellert and Malte Puhan for technical assistance. We thank PTPN VI and the owner of the plantation at Pompa Air for allowing us to conduct our research at their plantation. We would also like to thank the Spanish national project GEISpain (CGL2014-52838-C2-1-R) and the DAAD (scholarship from the programme ‘Research Stays for University Academics and Scientist 2018, ref. no. 91687130)' for partly financing A. Meijide during the preparation of this paper.The potential of palm-oil biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with fossil fuels is increasingly questioned. So far, no measurement-based GHG budgets were available, and plantation age was ignored in Life Cycle Analyses (LCA). Here, we conduct LCA based on measured CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in young and mature Indonesian oil palm plantations. CO2 dominates the on-site GHG budgets. The young plantation is a carbon source (1012 ± 51 gC m−2 yr−1), the mature plantation a sink (−754 ± 38 gC m−2 yr−1). LCA considering the measured fluxes shows higher GHG emissions for palm-oil biodiesel than traditional LCA assuming carbon neutrality. Plantation rotation-cycle extension and earlier-yielding varieties potentially decrease GHG emissions. Due to the high emissions associated with forest conversion to oil palm, our results indicate that only biodiesel from second rotation-cycle plantations or plantations established on degraded land has the potential for pronounced GHG emission savings.This study was financed by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)— Project-ID 192626868—in the framework of the collaborative German-Indonesian research project CRC990 (subprojects A03, A04 and A05).Spanish national project GEISpain (CGL2014-52838-C2-1-R) and the DAAD (scholarship from the programme ‘Research Stays for University Academics and Scientist 2018, ref. no. 91687130

Trade-offs between multifunctionality and profit in tropical smallholder landscapes

Land-use transitions can enhance the livelihoods of smallholder farmers but potential economic-ecological trade-offs remain poorly understood. Here, we present an interdisciplinary study of the environmental, social and economic consequences of land-use transitions in a tropical smallholder landscape on Sumatra, Indonesia. We find widespread biodiversity-profit trade-offs resulting from land-use transitions from forest and agroforestry systems to rubber and oil palm monocultures, for 26,894 aboveground and belowground species and whole-ecosystem multidiversity. Despite variation between ecosystem functions, profit gains come at the expense of ecosystem multifunctionality, indicating far-reaching ecosystem deterioration. We identify landscape compositions that can mitigate trade-offs under optimal land-use allocation but also show that intensive monocultures always lead to higher profits. These findings suggest that, to reduce losses in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, changes in economic incentive structures through well-designed policies are urgently needed

Remotely sensed forest cover loss shows high spatial and temporal variation across Sumatera and Kalimantan, Indonesia 2000-2008

The Indonesian islands of Sumatera and Kalimantan (the Indonesian part of the island of Borneo) are a center of significant and rapid forest cover loss in the humid tropics with implications for carbon dynamics, biodiversity conservation, and local livelihoods. The aim of our research was to analyze and interpret annual trends of forest cover loss for different sub-regions of the study area. We mapped forest cover loss for 2000-2008 using multi-resolution remote sensing data from the Landsat enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors and analyzed annual trends per island, province, and official land allocation zone. The total forest cover loss for Sumatera and Kalimantan 2000-2008 was 5.39 Mha, which represents 5.3% of the land area and 9.2% of the year 2000 forest cover of these two islands. At least 6.5% of all mapped forest cover loss occurred in land allocation zones prohibiting clearing. An additional 13.6% of forest cover loss occurred where clearing is legally restricted. The overall trend of forest cover loss increased until 2006 and decreased thereafter. The trends for Sumatera and Kalimantan were distinctly different, driven primarily by the trends of Riau and Central Kalimantan provinces, respectively. This analysis shows that annual mapping of forest cover change yields a clearer picture than a one-time overall national estimate. Monitoring forest dynamics is important for national policy makers, especially given the commitment of Indonesia to reducing greenhouse gas emissions as part of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries initiative (REDD+)