Software defect prediction: do different classifiers find the same defects?

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License CC BY 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.During the last 10 years, hundreds of different defect prediction models have been published. The performance of the classifiers used in these models is reported to be similar with models rarely performing above the predictive performance ceiling of about 80% recall. We investigate the individual defects that four classifiers predict and analyse the level of prediction uncertainty produced by these classifiers. We perform a sensitivity analysis to compare the performance of Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, RPart and SVM classifiers when predicting defects in NASA, open source and commercial datasets. The defect predictions that each classifier makes is captured in a confusion matrix and the prediction uncertainty of each classifier is compared. Despite similar predictive performance values for these four classifiers, each detects different sets of defects. Some classifiers are more consistent in predicting defects than others. Our results confirm that a unique subset of defects can be detected by specific classifiers. However, while some classifiers are consistent in the predictions they make, other classifiers vary in their predictions. Given our results, we conclude that classifier ensembles with decision-making strategies not based on majority voting are likely to perform best in defect prediction.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Malaria vaccine efficacy: the difficulty of detecting and diagnosing malaria

New sources of funding have revitalized efforts to control malaria. An effective vaccine would be a tremendous asset in the fight against this devastating disease and increasing financial and scientific resources are being invested to develop one. A few candidates have been tested in Phase I and II clinical trials, and several others are poised to begin trials soon. Some studies have been promising, and others disappointing. It is difficult to compare the results of these clinical trials; even independent trials of the same vaccine give highly discrepant results. One major obstacle in evaluating malaria vaccines is the difficulty of diagnosing clinical malaria. This analysis evaluates the impact of diagnostic error, particularly that introduced by microscopy, on the outcome of efficacy trials of malaria vaccines and make recommendations for improving future trials

A Research Agenda to Underpin Malaria Eradication

Pedro Alonso and colleagues introduce the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) initiative and the set of articles published in this PLoS Medicine Supplement that distill the research questions key to malaria eradication

The imPaCT study: a randomised controlled trial to evaluate a hospital palliative care team

A randomised controlled trial was undertaken to assess the effectiveness of a hospital Palliative Care Team (PCT) on physical symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL); patient, family carer and primary care professional reported satisfaction with care; and health service resource use. The full package of advice and support provided by a multidisciplinary specialist PCT (‘full-PCT’) was compared with limited telephone advice (‘telephone-PCT’, the control group) in the setting of a teaching hospital trust in the SW of England. The trial recruited 261 out of 684 new inpatient referrals; 175 were allocated to ‘full-PCT’, 86 to ‘telephone-PCT’ (2 : 1 randomisation); with 191 (73%) being assessed at 1 week. There were highly significant improvements in symptoms, HRQoL, mood and ‘emotional bother’ in ‘full-PCT’ at 1 week, maintained over the 4-week follow-up. A smaller effect was seen in ‘telephone-PCT’; there were no significant differences between the groups. Satisfaction with care in both groups was high and there was no significant difference between them. These data reflect a high standard of care of patients dying of cancer and other chronic diseases in an acute hospital environment, but do not demonstrate a difference between the two models of service delivery of specialist palliative care

Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) as a Powerful Novel Alternative for Differentiation of Epizootic ISA Virus Variants

Infectious Salmon Anemia is a devastating disease critically affecting world-wide salmon production. Chile has been particularly stricken by this disease which in all cases has been directly related with its causative agent, a novel orthomyxovirus which presents specific and distinctive infective features. Among these, two molecular markers have been directly associated with pathogenicity in two of the eight RNA sub genomic coding units of the virus: an insertion hot spot region present in viral segment 5 and a Highly Polymorphic Region (HPR) located in viral segment 6. Here we report the successful adaptation of a PCR-dependent denaturing gel electrophoresis technique (DGGE), which enables differentiation of selected reported HPR epizootic variants detected in Chile. At the same time, the technique allows us to distinguish one nucleotide differences in sequences associated with the intriguing, and still not well-understood, insertion events which tend to occur on RNA Segment 5. Thus, the versatility of the technique opens new opportunities for improved understanding of the complex biology of all ISA variants as well as possible applications to other highly variable pathogens

malERA: An updated research agenda for malaria elimination and eradication

Achieving a malaria-free world presents exciting scientific challenges as well as overwhelming health, equity, and economic benefits. WHO and countries are setting ambitious goals for reducing the burden and eliminating malaria through the “Global Technical Strategy” and 21 countries are aiming to eliminate malaria by 2020. The commitment to achieve these targets should be celebrated. However, the need for innovation to achieve these goals, sustain elimination, and free the world of malaria is greater than ever. Over 180 experts across multiple disciplines are engaged in the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) Refresh process to address problems that need to be solved. The result is a research and development agenda to accelerate malaria elimination and, in the longer term, transform the malaria community’s ability to eradicate it globally

Correlated Genetic and Ecological Diversification in a Widespread Southern African Horseshoe Bat

The analysis of molecular data within a historical biogeographical framework, coupled with ecological characteristics can provide insight into the processes driving diversification. Here we assess the genetic and ecological diversity within a widespread horseshoe bat Rhinolophus clivosus sensu lato with specific emphasis on the southern African representatives which, although not currently recognized, were previously described as a separate species R. geoffroyi comprising four subspecies. Sequence divergence estimates of the mtDNA control region show that the southern African representatives of R. clivosus s.l. are as distinct from samples further north in Africa than they are from R. ferrumequinum, the sister-species to R. clivosus. Within South Africa, five genetically supported geographic groups exist and these groups are corroborated by echolocation and wing morphology data. The groups loosely correspond to the distributions of the previously defined subspecies and Maxent modelling shows a strong correlation between the detected groups and ecoregions. Based on molecular clock calibrations, it is evident that climatic cycling and related vegetation changes during the Quaternary may have facilitated diversification both genetically and ecologically

Systematic Conservation Planning in the Face of Climate Change: Bet-Hedging on the Columbia Plateau

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts

Intra-Genomic Ribosomal RNA Polymorphism and Morphological Variation in Elphidium macellum Suggests Inter-Specific Hybridization in Foraminifera

Elphidium macellum is a benthic foraminifer commonly found in the Patagonian fjords. To test whether its highly variable morphotypes are ecophenotypes or different genotypes, we analysed 70 sequences of the SSU rRNA gene from 25 specimens. Unexpectedly, we identified 11 distinct ribotypes, with up to 5 ribotypes co-occurring within the same specimen. The ribotypes differ by varying blocks of sequence located at the end of stem-loop motifs in the three expansion segments specific to foraminifera. These changes, distinct from typical SNPs and indels, directly affect the structure of the expansion segments. Their mosaic distribution suggests that ribotypes originated by recombination of two or more clusters of ribosomal genes. We propose that this expansion segment polymorphism (ESP) could originate from hybridization of morphologically different populations of Patagonian Elphidium. We speculate that the complex geological history of Patagonia enhanced divergence of coastal foraminiferal species and contributed to increasing genetic and morphological variation

The effects of market economy and foreign MNE subsidiaries on the convergence and divergence of HRM

This study explores patterns of human resource management (HRM) practices across market economies, and between indigenous firms and foreign MNE subsidiary operations, offering a novel perspective on convergence and divergence. Applying institutional theorizing to improve our understanding of convergence/ divergence as a process and an outcome, data collected from nine countries at three points in time over a decade confirm that convergence and divergence occur to different extents in a non-linear fashion, and vary depending on the area of HRM practice observed. Patterns of adoption and convergence/ divergence are explained through the effect of institutional constraints, which vary between liberal and coordinated market economies, and between indigenous firms and foreign MNE subsidiaries. The study contributes a more graded conceptualization of convergence/ divergence, which reflects the complex dynamic reality of international business