Decay and expansion of the early aftershock activity following the 2011, M_w9.0 Tohoku earthquake

The 2011, M_w9.0 Tohoku earthquake was followed by an abundant amount of seismicity providing a unique opportunity to analyze the triggering mechanism of great earthquakes. Although the Tohoku earthquake occurred close to a dense seismic network, many aftershocks that occurred in the first few hours after the mainshock are not recorded in the earthquake catalogs. Here we use a template waveform approach to recover as many as possible missing events in the first 12 hours following the Tohoku mainshock. Our analysis is able to detect about 1.4 times more events than those listed in the High Sensitivity Seismograph (Hi-net) earthquake catalog. Combining our new dataset with earthquakes that occurred at latter times, we are able to observe a continuous decay of the aftershock rate and along strike expansion of aftershock area. We relate the latter observation to the occurrence of post-seismic slip over the deep interface

Generic dependence of the frequency-size distribution of earthquakes on depth and its relation to the strength profile of the crust

[1] We explore the idea that the relative size distribution of earthquakes, quantified using the so-called b-value, is negatively correlated with differential stress. Because the maximum possible differential stress increases linearly in the brittle upper crust, we expect to find a decrease of b with depth. We test this expectation for seven continental areas around the world, each of which is described by a regional earthquake catalog. We find a monotonic decrease in b-value between 5 and 15 km depth. The decrease stops near the brittle-ductile transition. We specifically focus on the high-quality catalogs of earthquakes in California to perform a sensitivity test with respect to depth uncertainty; we also estimate the probability-depth gradient for the occurrence of a target magnitude event and study the behavior of b with depth in near- and off-fault zones. We also translate the observed b-depth gradients into b-differential stress gradients. Our findings suggest that b-values are negatively correlated with differential stress and hus have the potential to act as stress meters in the Earth\u27s crust

Sensitivity study of forecasted aftershock seismicity based on Coulomb stress calculation and rate- and state-dependent frictional response

We use the Dieterich (1994) physics-based approach to simulate the spatio- temporal evolution of seismicity caused by stress changes applied to an infinite population of nucleating patches modeled through a rate- and state- dependent friction law. According to this model, seismicity rate changes depend on the amplitude of stress perturbation, the physical constitutive properties of faults (represented by the parameter Aσ), the stressing rate and the background seismicity rate of the study area. In order to apply this model in a predictive manner, we need to understand the impact of physical model parameters and the correlations between them. Firstly we discuss different definitions of the reference seismicity rate and show their impact on the computed rate of earthquake production for the 1992 Landers earthquake sequence as a case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that all model parameters are strongly correlated for physical and statistical reasons. We discuss this correlation emphasizing that the estimations of the background seismicity rate, stressing rate and Aσ are strongly correlated to reproduce the observed aftershock productivity. Our analytically derived relation demonstrates the impact of these model parameters on the Omori-like aftershock decay: the c- value and the productivity of the Omori law, implying a p-value smaller or equal to 1. Finally, we discuss an optimal strategy to constrain model parameters for near-real time forecasts

Sudden drop of fractal dimension of electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake

The variation of fractal dimension and entropy during a damage evolution process, especially approaching critical failure, has been recently investigated. A sudden drop of fractal dimension has been proposed as a quantitative indicator of damage localization or a likely precursor of an impending catastrophic failure. In this contribution, electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake are analysed to investigate whether they also present such sudden fractal dimension and entropy drops as the main catastrophic event is approaching. The pre-earthquake electromagnetic time series analysis results reveal a good agreement to the theoretically expected ones indicating that the critical fracture is approaching

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Clinical Trial of Oral Nelfinavir before and during Radiation Therapy for Advanced Rectal Cancer

Purpose Nelfinavir, a PI3-kinase pathway inhibitor, is a radiosensitizer which increases tumor blood flow in preclinical models. We conducted an early-phase study to demonstrate the safety of nelfinavir combined with hypofractionated radiotherapy (RT) and to develop biomarkers of tumor perfusion and radiosensitization for this combinatorial approach. Patients and Methods Ten patients with T3-4 N0-2 M1 rectal cancer received 7 days of oral nelfinavir (1250 mg bd) and a further 7 days of nelfinavir during pelvic RT (25 Gy/5 fractions/7 days). Perfusion CT (p-CT) and DCE-MRI scans were performed pre-treatment, after 7 days of nelfinavir and prior to last fraction of RT. Biopsies taken pre-treatment and 7 days after the last fraction of RT were analysed for tumor cell density (TCD). Results There were 3 drug-related grade 3 adverse events: diarrhea, rash, lymphopenia. On DCE-MRI, there was a mean 42% increase in median Ktrans, and a corresponding median 30% increase in mean blood flow on p-CT during RT in combination with nelfinavir. Median TCD decreased from 24.3% at baseline to 9.2% in biopsies taken 7 days after RT (P=0.01). Overall, 5/9 evaluable patients exhibited good tumor regression on MRI assessed by Tumor Regression Grade (mrTRG). Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate nelfinavir in combination with RT without concurrent chemotherapy. It has shown that nelfinavir-RT is well tolerated and is associated with increased blood flow to rectal tumors. The efficacy of nelfinavir-RT versus RT alone merits clinical evaluation, including measurement of tumor blood flow

Gas exchange at whole plant level shows that a less conservative water use is linked to a higher performance in three ecologically distinct pine species

Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation in large areas of the planet as a consequence of global warming will affect plant growth and survival. However, the impact of climatic conditions will differ across species depending on their stomatal response to increasing aridity, as this will ultimately affect the balance between carbon assimilation and water loss. In this study, we monitored gas exchange, growth and survival in saplings of three widely distributed European pine species (Pinus halepensis, P. nigra and P. sylvestris) with contrasting distribution and ecological requirements in order to ascertain the relationship between stomatal control and plant performance. The experiment was conducted in a common garden environment resembling rainfall and temperature conditions that two of the three species are expected to encounter in the near future. In addition, gas exchange was monitored both at the leaf and at the whole-plant level using a transient-state closed chamber, which allowed us to model the response of the whole plant to increased air evaporative demand (AED). P. sylvestris was the species with lowest survival and performance. By contrast, P. halepensis showed no mortality, much higher growth (two orders of magnitude), carbon assimilation (ca. 14 fold higher) and stomatal conductance and water transpiration (ca. 4 fold higher) than the other two species. As a consequence, P. halepensis exhibited higher values of water-use efficiency than the rest of the species even at the highest values of AED. Overall, the results strongly support that the weaker stomatal control of P. halepensis, which is linked to lower stem water potential, enabled this species to maximize carbon uptake under drought stress and ultimately outperform the more water conservative P. nigra and P. sylvestris. These results suggest that under a hotter drought scenario P. nigra and P. sylvestris would very likely suffer increased mortality, whereas P. halepensis could maintain gas exchange and avoid water-induced growth limitation. This might ultimately foster an expansion of P. halepensis to higher latitudes and elevations.This work was supported by the projects ECOLPIN (AGL2011–24296) and Remedinal 3 (S2013/ MAE- 2719) of the Madrid Government, by a FPU fellowship from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport (FPU13/03410) to DS and by EU Marie Curie (FP7–2013-IOF-625988) fellowship to EPSC