Reconsidering Relationships among Stem and Crown Group Pinaceae: Oldest Record of the Genus Pinus from the Early Cretaceous of Yorkshire, United Kingdom

This study describes a specimen that extends the oldest fossil evidence of Pinus L. to the Early Cretaceous Wealden Formation of Yorkshire, UK (131-129 million years ago), and prompts a critical reevaluation of criteria that are employed to identify crown group genera of Pinaceae from anatomically preserved seed cones. The specimen, described as Pinus yorkshirensis sp. nov., is conical, 5 cm long, and 3.1 cm in maximum diameter. Bract/scale complexes are helically arranged and spreading. Vasculature of the axis forms a complete cylinder with few resin canals in the wood, and the inner cortex is dominated by large resin canals. Bracts are short, with two resin canals, and separate from the scale base laterally. Distally, the ovuliferous scales broaden and thicken to form a rhomboidal apophysis with a dorsal umbo, characters found only in the genus Pinus among living conifers. Resin canals enter the ovuliferous scale abaxial to the vascular tissue, which divides distally to form a row of adaxially convex bundles. A short interseminal ridge separates two inverted and winged seeds on the adaxial surface of the ovuliferous scale. Seeds contain megagametophyte tissue and polycotyledonary embryos. Numerical cladistic analysis of anatomically preserved seed cones yields a well-resolved phylogeny of crown and stem group Pinaceae that is roughly concordant with the results of analyses that include living species only. All of the included species of Pinus form a clade with three very Pinus-like species that currently are assigned to the stem genus Pityostrobus. These results call to question the utility of traditional methods for assigning fossil seed cones to Pinus, resolve relationships among stem and crown group genera, and highlight the unnatural circumscription of Pityostrobus. This suggests that some species of Pityostrobus may actually represent the genus Pinus, and it demonstrates that the evolutionary diversification of Pinaceae began earlier than previously recognized from fossil evidence.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by University of Chicago Press and can be found at: http://www.press.uchicago.edu/index.html.Keywords: Yorkshire, Early Cretaceous, Fossil, Seed cone, Phylogeny of Pinaceae, PinusKeywords: Yorkshire, Early Cretaceous, Fossil, Seed cone, Phylogeny of Pinaceae, Pinu

Observing convective aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad a distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network

Integrating Global Citizen Science Platforms to Enable Next-Generation Surveillance of Invasive and Vector Mosquitoes

Este artículo contiene 24 páginas, 6 figuras.Mosquito-borne diseases continue to ravage humankind with >700 million infections and nearly one million deaths every year. Yet only a small percentage of the >3500 mosquito species transmit diseases, necessitating both extensive surveillance and precise identification. Unfortunately, such efforts are costly, time-consuming, and require entomological expertise. As envisioned by the Global Mosquito Alert Consortium, citizen science can provide a scalable solution. However, disparate data standards across existing platforms have thus far precluded truly global integration. Here, utilizing Open Geospatial Consortium standards, we harmonized four data streams from three established mobile apps—Mosquito Alert, iNaturalist, and GLOBE Observer’s Mosquito Habitat Mapper and Land Cover—to facilitate interoperability and utility for researchers, mosquito control personnel, and policymakers. We also launched coordinated media campaigns that generated unprecedented numbers and types of observations, including successfully capturing the first images of targeted invasive and vector species. Additionally, we leveraged pooled image data to develop a toolset of artificial intelligence algorithms for future deployment in taxonomic and anatomical identification. Ultimately, by harnessing the combined powers of citizen science and artificial intelligence, we establish a next-generation surveillance framework to serve as a united front to combat the ongoing threat of mosquito-borne diseases worldwide.This research was funded by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS-2014547 to R.M.C., S.C., R.D.L. and A.B. The GLOBE Observer app and citizen science programming are supported through National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) cooperative agreement NNX16AE28A to the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the NASA Earth Science Education Collaborative (NESEC, PI: Theresa Schwerin). F.B. and J.R.B.P. acknowledge funding from: (a) the European Commission, under Grants CA17108 (AIM-COST Action), 874735 (VEO), 853271 (H-MIP), and 2020/2094 (NextGenerationEU, through CSIC’s Global Health Platform, PTI Salud Global); (b) the Dutch National Research Agenda (NWA), under Grant NWA/00686468; and (c) “la Caixa” Foundation, under Grant HR19-00336.Peer reviewe

The Origin and Initial Rise of Pelagic Cephalopods in the Ordovician

BACKGROUND: During the Ordovician the global diversity increased dramatically at family, genus and species levels. Partially the diversification is explained by an increased nutrient, and phytoplankton availability in the open water. Cephalopods are among the top predators of today's open oceans. Their Ordovician occurrences, diversity evolution and abundance pattern potentially provides information on the evolution of the pelagic food chain. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We reconstructed the cephalopod departure from originally exclusively neritic habitats into the pelagic zone by the compilation of occurrence data in offshore paleoenvironments from the Paleobiology Database, and from own data, by evidence of the functional morphology, and the taphonomy of selected cephalopod faunas. The occurrence data show, that cephalopod associations in offshore depositional settings and black shales are characterized by a specific composition, often dominated by orthocerids and lituitids. The siphuncle and conch form of these cephalopods indicate a dominant lifestyle as pelagic, vertical migrants. The frequency distribution of conch sizes and the pattern of epibionts indicate an autochthonous origin of the majority of orthocerid and lituitid shells. The consistent concentration of these cephalopods in deep subtidal sediments, starting from the middle Tremadocian indicates the occupation of the pelagic zone early in the Early Ordovician and a subsequent diversification which peaked during the Darriwilian. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The exploitation of the pelagic realm started synchronously in several independent invertebrate clades during the latest Cambrian to Middle Ordovician. The initial rise and diversification of pelagic cephalopods during the Early and Middle Ordovician indicates the establishment of a pelagic food chain sustainable enough for the development of a diverse fauna of large predators. The earliest pelagic cephalopods were slowly swimming vertical migrants. The appearance and early diversification of pelagic cephalopods is interpreted as a consequence of the increased food availability in the open water since the latest Cambrian

Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals

This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their "effective static stability" due to diabatic heating. 3 The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance and the variance of its westward counterpart is too small in most of the models, which is consistent with the lack of highly coherent eastward propagation of the MJO in many models. Moreover, the MJO variance in 13 of the 14 models does not come from a pronounced spectral peak, but usually is associated with an overreddened spectrum, which in turn is associated with a too strong persistence of equatorial precipitation. The two models that arguably do best at simulating the MJO are the only ones having convective closures/triggers linked in some way to moisture convergence

Self-perceived quality of life predicts mortality risk better than a multi-biomarker panel, but the combination of both does best

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Associations between measures of subjective health and mortality risk have previously been shown. We assessed the impact and comparative predictive performance of a multi-biomarker panel on this association.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from 4,261 individuals aged 20-79 years recruited for the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania was used. During an average 9.7 year follow-up, 456 deaths (10.7%) occurred. Subjective health was assessed by SF-12 derived physical (PCS-12) and mental component summaries (MCS-12), and a single-item self-rated health (SRH) question. We implemented Cox proportional-hazards regression models to investigate the association of subjective health with mortality and to assess the impact of a combination of 10 biomarkers on this association. Variable selection procedures were used to identify a parsimonious set of subjective health measures and biomarkers, whose predictive ability was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, C-statistics, and reclassification methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In age- and gender-adjusted Cox models, poor SRH (hazard ratio (HR), 2.07; 95% CI, 1.34-3.20) and low PCS-12 scores (lowest vs. highest quartile: HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.33) were significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality; an association independent of various covariates and biomarkers. Furthermore, selected subjective health measures yielded a significantly higher C-statistic (0.883) compared to the selected biomarker panel (0.872), whereas a combined assessment showed the highest C-statistic (0.887) with a highly significant integrated discrimination improvement of 1.5% (p < 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Adding biomarker information did not affect the association of subjective health measures with mortality, but significantly improved risk stratification. Thus, a combined assessment of self-reported subjective health and measured biomarkers may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for intensified monitoring.</p

Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2

The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.open131

Comprehensive Serum Profiling for the Discovery of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Biomarkers

FDA-cleared ovarian cancer biomarkers are limited to CA-125 and HE4 for monitoring and recurrence and OVA1, a multivariate panel consisting of CA-125 and four additional biomarkers, for referring patients to a specialist. Due to relatively poor performance of these tests, more accurate and broadly applicable biomarkers are needed. We evaluated the dysregulation of 259 candidate cancer markers in serum samples from 499 patients. Sera were collected prospectively at 11 monitored sites under a single well-defined protocol. All stages of ovarian cancer and common benign gynecological conditions were represented. To ensure consistency and comparability of biomarker comparisons, all measurements were performed on a single platform, at a single site, using a panel of rigorously calibrated, qualified, high-throughput, multiplexed immunoassays and all analyses were conducted using the same software. Each marker was evaluated independently for its ability to differentiate ovarian cancer from benign conditions. A total of 175 markers were dysregulated in the cancer samples. HE4 (AUC = 0.933) and CA-125 (AUC = 0.907) were the most informative biomarkers, followed by IL-2 receptor α, α1-antitrypsin, C-reactive protein, YKL-40, cellular fibronectin, CA-72-4 and prostasin (AUC>0.800). To improve the discrimination between cancer and benign conditions, a simple multivariate combination of markers was explored using logistic regression. When combined into a single panel, the nine most informative individual biomarkers yielded an AUC value of 0.950, significantly higher than obtained when combining the markers in the OVA1 panel (AUC 0.912). Additionally, at a threshold sensitivity of 90%, the combination of the top 9 markers gave 88.9% specificity compared to 63.4% specificity for the OVA1 markers. Although a blinded validation study has not yet been performed, these results indicate that alternative biomarker combinations might lead to significant improvements in the detection of ovarian cancer